We have a cool 39° this morning at 6:30. The weather has been enjoyable this week with lots of sun and low dew points, a great time to be outdoors. Though I have limited use of my left arm due to restrictions of my implant and still healing I have the farmer attitude of things don’t stop needing to be done I do what I can. I planted a row of gourd seeds yesterday – I use the gourds to make birdhouses after they have dried over the winter.
A layer of smoke in the upper atmosphere will create a hazy appearance to the sky today. A cold front will pass through Michigan on Friday, bringing a period of much-needed rain before another long stretch of dry weather occurs next week with temperatures rising into the upper 70s to around 80°.
U.S.A and Global Events for May 18th:
1883: The massive tornado outbreak on record in Illinois affected the northern and central parts of the state. At least 14 strong to violent tornadoes touched down killing 52 people. The largest death toll from a single tornado was 12, with 50 injuries, from an estimated F4 tornado that moved from near Jacksonville to 5 miles west of Petersburg. This tornado destroyed the town of Literberry. Another tornado, with an estimated F4 intensity, killed 11 people and injured 50 along its path from the south edge of Springfield northeast to near Kenney. This particular tornado reportedly drove 10 inches by 12-inch oak timbers 10 feet into the ground. Another estimated F4 tornado in far northern Illinois touched down near Capron and tracked for 17 miles before lifting in far southern Wisconsin. Lastly, an estimated F4 tornado tracked 20 miles through Kenosha and Racine Counties in Wisconsin. Eight people were killed, and 85 were injured. Click HERE to view a YouTube video.
1980: Mount Saint Helens erupted, spewing ash and smoke sixty-three thousand feet into the air. Heavy ash covered the ground to the immediate northwest, and small particles were carried to the Atlantic coast. Click HERE for more information.
- Showers Along a Cold Front for Friday Good model consensus exists for showers on Friday ahead of and along a cold front that will push through the region. An intensifying upper level jet moves into the Great Lakes ahead of an amplifying upper wave that becomes a closed upper low over Michigan late Friday into early Saturday. Rapid advection of higher dew points ahead of the front is shown by the 00z HRRR as upper 50s to around 60F dew points enter Lower Michigan Friday morning. Showers are expected primarily during the morning hours near and north of a Holland to Mount Pleasant line. South of this line, showers are more likely during the afternoon hours. MUCAPE values look meager ahead of this front, perhaps 100-200 J/kg or so, but that may be enough to get some occasional lightning. In terms of rainfall amounts, a general range of 0.20"-0.40" is favored across the region. A few locally higher amounts are possible. Also, given the frontal passage during the day, most locations will not warm above the 60s. - Chilly Start to the Weekend, then Warming Up The core of the coldest air at 850mb swings through Saturday morning into early afternoon, with temps at that level only a few degrees above 0C, at least initially. This will make for some rather cool temperatures during the day. The ECMWF/ECE remain on the cooler side of guidance given a slower progression to the upper low across the area, with temperatures mainly in the 50s during the day. The GFS/GEM are a bit warmer with highs into the mid 60s. Will have to do some fine tuning of those temperatures as we get closer and hopefully a model consensus emerges. Warmer 850mb temperatures and building upper level heights on Sunday should boost highs back into the 70s, though a potential back door cold front could cool us off into the 60s for Monday. Following this, upper ridging moves in with modifying temperatures. Highs in the 70s should eventually inch up into the 80s by mid to late week. Additionally, dry conditions are favored for much of next week. Ensemble guidance indicates a prolonged dry period is ahead following Friday`s showers. Given the positioning of the upper ridge midweek, I suppose it would be possible to generate isolated lake- breeze showers if low level moisture becomes sufficient. Outside of this, expect next week to largely be dry at this point.