Eclipse Forecasts
I was wandering around the various NWS sites south of Michigan to see local forecasts for Monday – didn’t have much time to check every zone to where you may be traveling – plus it is still a bit early to determine the forecasts to perfection if there is such a thing. Tomorrow I will have some more time to delve into it. Below are the forecasts for Louisville Kentucky and St. Louis Missouri.
A breezy and cooler day with considerable clouds is in store thanks to a low pressure system centered near Sault Ste Marie. Although that system lifts out later today, another fast moving disturbance may bring a few showers tonight into early Saturday, mainly south of Interstate 96. High pressure will provide mostly clear skies and warm temperatures Saturday and Sunday, and probably into Monday as well. Our next good chance of showers and storms is Monday night and Tuesday with a strong cold front.
Forecast Discussion
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SHORT TERM…
Moist cyclonic low level flow will result in considerable stratocu clouds today, although some breaks likely developing this afternoon. The best chance of seeing some sunshine later in the day, per low level rh progs, is south of I-96 and west of Hwy 131.
Most of the current light rain shower activity should end by afternoon with perhaps the exception of U.S. 10 northward. Another fairly amplified nrn stream shortwave will dive through the region late tonight and early Saturday. Guidance is in good agreement in showing the best qpf passing just south of Lwr MI where better moisture will exist. However chance/sct pops still warranted for areas along/south of I-96 and even a thunder threat as guidance indicates 500 to as much as 1000 j/kg of MUCape.
Although clouds and a few showers/storms may still be present south and east of GRR early Saturday, they should be gone by mid morning. Subsidence/drying in the wake of the departing shortwave will then lead to mostly sunny/pleasant conditions for the rest of the day. Sunday looks sunny as well, and about 5 degrees warmer, as southwest flow/weak waa develops at H8. .
LONG TERM…
The focus during the long term will be the cold front moving through the Great Lakes Monday into Tuesday. That`s the period that has the highest chance of seeing showers/storms. The gfs and ecmwf are in pretty good agreement with the timing and track of the front and both models show strong upper support in the form of a short wave moving through the region.
The upper flow will be transitioning to a trough over the Great Lakes from the quasi zonal flow that we`ll see over the weekend. There`s a decent shot of cooler air behind this front that should see h8 temps fall from +16c ahead of it to +6 behind it. Shear values around 40 kts point toward a few strong/severe storms potentially. A 30 kt llj is also progd to be present.