Yesterday we had a trace of wet snow with a high of 38° – the sun peeked out a couple of times during the late afternoon. We may see a few lingering rain/snow showers through the morning with the persistent cloud cover hanging on through the day. A warming trend is in store with temperatures near 40 today rising to the low 50s for Friday and Saturday. We should see dry conditions through Friday night.
Forecast
Weather History for SW Michigan
1958: Arctic air settles into Lower Michigan during one of the coldest December on record. High temperatures are only in the teens on this date. More than two feet of lake effect snow piles up at Muskegon during the first half of the month.
Weather History for SE Michigan
On December 6, 1998, the temperature rose to 69 degrees in Detroit. This set the record for the maximum temperature for the month of December in Detroit. This was followed by severe thunderstorms and wind damage across Southeast Michigan. The majority of the severe weather occurred near or south of Interstate 69. The most notable exception to this was a swath of wind damage across southern Sanilac County, from Marlette to Lexington. Barns and silos were destroyed near Marlette, and a home was deroofed.
U.S.A and Global Events for December 6th:
December 6, 1913:
A snowstorm from December 1st through the 6th dumps a record total of 45.7 inches in Denver, Colorado. This storm produced the most snow ever recorded in a single Denver snowstorm.
December 6, 1970:
The National Christmas tree in 1970 was a 78-foot spruce from South Dakota. On the way to Washington, the train carrying the tree derailed twice in Nebraska. On the weekend before the lighting event, the tree toppled in gusty winds and required new branches to fill it out.
Forecast Discussion
A few light snow showers and flurries will continue to develop through the morning with h8 temps down around -8 C yielding delta t/s in the middle teens. Precipitation will taper off toward midday as deeper moisture decreases and h8 temps begin to moderate. Dry wx is expected for most of our area tonight. A mid to upper level disturbance passing by well to the north to ne of our area may bring just a few light mixed light rain/light snow showers to our ne fcst area. Milder and dry wx is forecast for Thursday. A fair amount of sun in conjunction with increasing sw flow waa will help to boost max temps well into the 40s. The latest 00Z deterministic runs of the ECMWF/GFS/Canadian have all changed their tune quite a bit as far as the late weekend weather goes. The longwave trough which digs over the center of the nation is now shown to be a bit more progressive and less amplified so the sfc frontal zone just drifts east through Michigan with no notable sfc low developing along it. This scenario would mean a round of rain showers Friday night through Saturday night ahead/along of the front, followed by some light lake effect snow showers in the cold advection behind the front Sunday into Monday. Ensemble 50th percentile QPF amounts have lowered, as well as the threat of stronger winds. That said there are still a few (minority) ensembles members which support the idea of a decent sfc low developing along the baroclinic zone although that number is shrinking in the new 00Z data. A few members are also still putting down a stripe of synoptic snow through the area but it should be noted that the EC ENS 90th percentile snow amounts have lowered considerably and the prob of >6" is now less than 10 percent. So while overall fcst confidence still remains relatively low for later in the weekend, the risk of any higher impact weather is definitely decreasing in the new 00Z 12/6 data. Otherwise confidence is high regarding the unseasonable warmth preceding the frontal passage, with temps Friday expected to be in the 50s and even a decent potential for sunshine. Similar highs are possible on Saturday as well, especially over ern sections, depending on frontal timing and shower coverage.
This will probably not be a surprise to most of us:
https://www.mlive.com/weather/2023/12/december-weather-might-not-actually-go-the-way-it-normally-does.html
The forecast this weekend shifted drastically. Not to surprised though given what we expect in El Niño. This folks is why you don’t fall for garage hype and click bait in social media showing snowmegadon snow totals. We will get a system at some point, just doesn’t look like we will this go around. Looking forward to getting snowshoes out when I can.
That is always a issue in looking at the long range snowfall make believe maps. You might have to wait to use you snowshoes unless you take a trip.
Slim
Definitely going to have to wait. Maybe by late this month or into January
NWS Gaylord is talking about record warmth upcoming! Wow!
The best chance for any new records would be at Sault Ste Marie on Friday. The current record high at the Sault for Friday is 46 and the forecast is for a high of 49. At other locations the records are in the mid to upper 50’s with highs on Friday forecast to be in the low 50’s but could see some 2nd place highs.
Slim
The official H/L yesterday at GR was 38/32 there was 0.01” of precipitation with a trace of snow. There was just 1% of possible sunshine. GR is now -8.0” below where it should be in the snowfall department. For today the average H/L is 39/27 the record high of 63 was set in 1951 and the record low of 0 was set in 1964. The wettest was in 1966 with 0.96” the most snow fall of 7” fell in 1919 the most on the ground was 10” in 1991. Last year the H/L was 42/36 and there was a trace… Read more »
The outlook for Sunday has changed dramatically. I only used the shovel three times last year. I wonder how many times it will be used this year?
With the official reported 110.7″ at Grand Rapids I used the snowblower/shovel more than you did with Lansing 58.1″ so far this year Lansing has had more snow than Grand Rapids with 2.3″ at Lansing and just 2.0″ at GR. Both locations are below average as of this date.
Slim
The thing about last year is that other than the times where a shovel was needed, not much accumulation occurred (an inch here or there) and what snow was received, melted in a few days.
Yes, 110 inches of snow, yet the warm weather crazies said it was an easy winter! In their dreams! I got in a lot of skiing and snowshoeing
last year! It was an awesome near record breaking winter for Snow!!!!! Incredible!
It appears to that the record snowfall for a season for GR was 1951-1952 – 132” at the airport and 144” downtown GR.