Falling Temps Today
Somehow it just feels so wrong waking up with temps in the low 50s this morning. This has been several days of extremes that is for sure. All the snow is gone in Otsego with the exception of Bittersweet Ski Resort – they still have 16 runs and trails open though I don’t know for how long that will last.
Yesterday we had a high of 54° and the low was 42°. Our temp at 05:30 am is 54°. It will be a mild and damp start to the day today as a cold front moves in. The temperature will start to fall this afternoon as the cold front pushes east of the region. Another weak system will head our way on New Year’s Eve with a small chance for light mixed precipitation.
Grand Rapids Forecast
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Kalamazoo Forecast
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Lansing Forecast
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Forecast Discussion
-- Scattered Showers This morning -- Baroclinicity will dominate the pattern through next week. High pressure off the eastern United States will be pushed eastward as the large ridge stemming from it is moves from Eastern Canada offshore. A deepening upper level trough will move through the Central United States and as it overtops the ridge it will become negatively tilted and becomes shallow. The trough will move over lower Michigan which will shift the jet that has been driving the pattern further north and slacken the winds aloft this morning. As the trough does this, there is enough moisture in the mid to low levels to allow for low clouds to remain trapped below the upper level flow with scattered showers. There will be enough instability to allow for ribbons of showers that you can currently see on radar. However, according to the NAEFS anomalies the PWATS are less then 0.75 which translates to fairly dry QPF`s. So any rainfall will be light. A better band of PWATS will form along the frontal boundary between the before mentioned trough and ridge which will extend through Southern Canada and through the Ohio river valley. However, it will only slightly clip SW Michigan. The best rainfall will be southeast of Jackson. -- Precipitation chances through the weekend into next week -- As the frontal pattern moves eastward, the ribbon of moisture could be stalled, and given the cooler overnight temperatures could allow for mixed precipitation along the I 94 corridor and the US 127 corridors. However to the northeast it will remain primarily dry. Saturday night/New Years Eve: A mid level shortwave moving across Lake Michigan could have enough moisture moving through the transition zone to have rainshowers to the lakeshore with snow eastward. The area of concern will be primarily at and north of the I 96 corridor. This includes a possible north- south ribbon of freezing rain mainly between midnight and sunrise on New Years Day. Accumulations of freezing or frozen precipitation should be minimal. The largest concentration of moisture will be in the Ludington area. -- Precipitation Monday night/Tuesday -- While we have had light showers with periods of drizzle , the best chance for rain showers will be as a larger upper level low moves through the central US and brings a significant moisture anomaly through Michigan Monday nigh into Tuesday. Unfortunately for this time of year, it will be coupled with an anomalous warm air advection which will mean it will be rain. The Models have been extremely consistent with this system. -- Colder with possibility of accumulating snow next weekend -- On the backside of that low however is hope for a cool down for next weekend with several ECE and GEFS ensemble members showing potential for accumulating snow. At this time, any accumulations are not expected to be significant.
