Yet Another Sunny Day

Our low so far this morning is 36°, typical for October as we head into the changing of the seasons.

Yesterday’s high was 70° and the low was 35°.

High pressure will continue to control our weather through Friday providing the region with mostly clear conditions. Daytime temperatures will climb into the 60’s today with 70’s expected for Friday. A cold front arrives Friday night and will start a cooling trend that will last into early next week. Periods of showers will accompany the cooler weather.

Weather History

1879: Southwest Lower Michigan is in the midst of a long spell of warm weather. Lansing rises into the 80s for seven out of the eight days from October 5th through the 12th. This includes the record high of 84 degrees on October 10th, which was preceded by a record 83 degrees on the 9th and followed by 85 degrees on the 11th.

1906: An early season snowstorm drops 4 to 8 inches of snow from Ludington to South Haven. Temperatures plunge into the teens the next morning, killing thousands of fruit trees, enough to alter the agricultural economy of southwest Lower Michigan.

On October 10, 1949, a three-day period of record highs in Flint ended. Temperatures ranged from 84 degrees on the 8th, 82 degrees on the 9th, and 85 degrees on the 10th.

NWS Forecast

Forecast Discussion

- Next chance of rain Friday afternoon

We will mostly enjoy another a couple of nice fall days here for
today and much of Friday. High pressure at the sfc is almost
overhead this morning, with the upper ridge axis just west of the
area. Each of these features will slowly build to the SE through
Friday morning. They will ensure dry weather for the area through
Friday morning along with mostly sunny/clear skies. This will allow
for good viewing of the potential Northern Lights tonight per the
NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center. We will also not be as cold
tonight with the winds from the SW picking up some, and mixing the
atmosphere a bit.

We will see a broad scale upper trough over the Midwest on Friday
push a cold front SE into the area late Friday afternoon. This will
be the best chance of some rain since last week, but still does not
look to relieve the recent bout of dry weather the area has
experienced.

The main limiting factor with it is the lower and mid level flow
ahead of the front has a trajectory from over the Plains states.
There is not much moisture to work with. There is just enough
moisture to squeeze out a few showers with diurnal heating. There is
a small chance of a rumble of thunder with a couple of hundred J/kg
of thin elevated CAPE present on the forecast soundings. Highs in
the 70s will try to help boost the diurnal instability a little bit.

- Cool and wet period over the weekend and lasting into early
  next week

The 00z run of the models continue to show a series of mid to upper
level waves moving in and carving out a deep low over the northern
Great Lakes Region by Monday.  The combination of column cooling and
lake enhancement will support periods of showers during this
timeframe. The first potential for showers arrives Friday night.
This will be associated with the initial cold front.  The best
forcing with the wave associated with the front stays up in Canada
and overall the front will be weakening as it moves into the CWA.
However with PWAT`s climbing up over an inch and low level lift
along the frontal zone, a few showers could accompany the front
Friday night.  Weak elevated instability does show up across
northern zones so there is a small risk for a storm or two up north.

Models are still struggling with what to do on Saturday with some
indications that a wave will form along the frontal zone over
southern parts of the CWA.  Overall there has been a slight
southward shift of this potential wave with only our southern zones
in the area for potential showers.  Most ensemble members from the
various models keep even our southern zones dry during the day on
Saturday so we will keep any POPs down there very low.  Forecast
soundings from the deterministic models do show mid to upper level
moisture around so there may be some clouds around during the day.

Then a stronger mid to upper level wave digs in for Saturday night
and into Sunday.  Steady height falls occur as the wave deepens over
the region.  This alone could lead to periods of showers.  However
as the colder air gets drawn into the system, the lakes will be
adding moisture to the setup,  enhancing the precipitation risk.  We
will maintain higher POPs for this period as a result.  Most
ensemble members are showing qpf which supports higher POPs.

There`s some uncertainty as to how the bands of lake effect setup
Monday into Monday night.  The ECMWF and Canadian want to push the
bulk of the precipitation offshore, while the GFS draws the bands
into western and southwest parts of the CWA. If the GFS is right  we
would see steady rain through the day for these locations.  The GFS
would also warrant a thunder risk as some surface based instability
is seen with the latest run close to the lakeshore.  Given the
uncertainty we will hold on the POPs featuring the highest values
closer to the lakeshore.