We have a wet forecast for the area today. With temperatures starting out around the freezing mark for interior Lower Michigan, including Big Rapids, Clare, and Cadillac, some slick spots are possible. Otherwise, it will be a wet and cold day for the region as low-pressure moves in. Conditions dry out for later Wednesday and Thursday as the storm pulls away.
Yesterday’s high was 44° and the low was 28°.
Weather History for Southwest Michigan
1880: Bitterly cold conditions prevail across Lower Michigan. It’s the coldest November day on record at Lansing with a high of only 12 degrees. The low of four below zero is the earliest subzero temperature on record there.
1913: Record warmth prevails across Lower Michigan with high temperatures in the upper 60s and lower 70s. The 70-degree reading at Grand Rapids is a late-season record.
Weather History for SE Michigan
On November 21, 2015, a record-setting snowstorm hit Southeast Michigan. Snow began early in the day and gradually increased in intensity with widespread snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour. A particularly intense band brought rates upwards of 3 inches per hour to Howell, where a storm total of 16.8 inches was reported. In fact, numerous locations reported snowfall amounts between 10 and 16.8 inches in Livingston and Oakland Counties. The NWS office in White Lake measured 15.5″ making it the largest snowstorm the office has seen since it was built in 1994.
Also on November 21, 1913, Detroit experienced record highs for two days with 67 degrees on the 21st and 69 degrees on the 22nd.
U.S.A and Global Events for November 21st:
1992: The November 21st – 23rd tornado outbreak was the 3rd largest outbreak in recorded history and one of the longest continuous outbreaks ever recorded. There was no break in tornado activity from 1:30 pm on the 21st when the tornadoes started in Texas until 7:30 am on the 23rd when the last tornadoes lifted in North Carolina. On this date, severe thunderstorms spawned six tornadoes within 70 minutes in the Houston metro area in Texas. At one time, there were three on the ground in Harris County. The strongest, an F4, tracked 20 miles through the eastern suburbs of Houston destroying 200 homes and damaging 1,000 more. In total, 23 tornadoes struck Mississippi and Alabama. An F4 tornado killed 12 people on a 128-mile track through 7 Mississippi counties. The deadliest tornado of 1992, an F4 tornado killed 12 people on a 128-mile path through 7 counties in Mississippi, one of the bodies was blown a quarter mile into a tree. Click HERE for more information from the NWS Office in Jackson, Mississippi.
We will be issuing a short duration Winter Weather Advisory for the interior counties of Central Lower Michigan through 15z/10 am EST this morning. Rain out ahead of the incoming low pressure system is continuing to spread in from the south, and expanding in coverage as it does so early this morning. There were a few isolated reports of some sleet at the onset. This made sense considering a warm layer aloft, and a below freezing layer just above the sfc per forecast soundings. The layer aloft is warming and moistening out ahead of the sfc low that will move across the area later today. The sfc layer is a bit different however with a stiff flow from the ENE bringing in drier air with dew points in the 20s. The models have locked on to a fairly good consensus, and it is playing out accordingly. That consensus is that the interior portions of Central Lower have a good threat of some light freezing rain for a few hours this morning. These areas are favored as they are cooler to start with temps around or just above freezing. Dew points are lower, in the low to mid 20s, giving a fair amount of potential for wet bulbing at the sfc down to just below freezing. This should not last long, no later than mid-morning before enough latent heat helps bring sfc temps above freezing. Given this will occur during the morning commute, we felt it was better to err on the side of caution. Elsewhere, temps should stay above freezing for the duration. The heavier precipitation with the stronger surge of warm and moist air should gradually move out early to mid afternoon as the low level jet and best moisture transport shifts east. The sfc low coming through though will keep light rain, drizzle and fog fairly widespread through most of the day. It will take until this evening and overnight for the low to move east, and allow drier air to surge in on NW flow to shut off the widespread rain. The flow aloft goes anti-cyclonic by daybreak on Wednesday. Can`t rule out a shower or two near the lake with 850 mb temps dropping to -5C creating delta t`s of 15C. Subsidence building in fairly quickly should cut that off fairly quickly Wed morning. We should see clouds break up fairly well on Wednesday, with highs reaching the low to mid 40s. - Dry Thanksgiving Day into Friday While a cold front will be dropping down from the north on Thanksgiving Day, it will be weakening. This system will feature only limited amounts of moisture. As a result, we expected this frontal passage to be dry with only some cloud cover accompanying its passage. Overviews of Omega from the models also show mostly subsidence, which will also limit the precipitation risk. - Sunday into Monday may feature a period of mainly light snow Models are showing a mid level trough arriving from the west on Sunday. There will also be some diffluence aloft with the left front quadrant of an upper jet tracking through. The DGZ moistens up as well. Thus an increased risk for precipitation exists especially for Sunday. Thermal profiles favor mainly snow, however the middle of the day on Sunday may warm up enough the transition to light rain. There are some indications that enough cold air arrives to possibly generate lake effect snow Sunday night and into Monday with the GFS even suggesting a potent mid level wave digging in then. Not all the models support this second wave digging in so close monitoring will be needed. Ensemble snowfall forecasts for the GFS and Canadian show a lot of spread in this period so confidence is low at this time. Sunday will see an increase in travel so that period will need to keep an eye on the trends.