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Winter Weather Update – Advisories

Posted on by MichaelV (Otsego)

The feature image is taken in Siberia – I would recommend goggles to keep your eyes from freezing.  Oymyakon, Russia — already considered the world’s coldest permanently inhabited town — sank to a mind-numbing 88 degrees below zero on Tuesday.

That’s even colder than the average temperature on Mars, which is 80 below zero, according to Space.com.

South of Grand Rapids we have a nice ice encrusted snow cover as the start of a nice base for our next glacier.  We have multiple advisories in place this morning plus a warning for heavy freezing spray on lake Michigan.  If you have ever watched the Deadliest Catch on TV you have seen what ice buildup can do to vessels.

Winter will be with us in force over the next week or so with cold and snow in the forecast.  We will see the chance of lake effect snow increase through the day and clipper systems coming through to bring increasingly colder air east of the Rockies into New England.

The first clipper moves in later today, another Saturday night into Sunday and a synoptic event for Monday and Monday night which could bring in another several inches of snow.  After the Monday system moves through we will dip into the single digits with wind chills down to 30 below with more lake effect snow.

Below are the NAM NEST images going through 18z on Saturday – the first is snow accumulation the second is the cold air pouring into the state.  The snow model is figuring a 10:1 ratio which would give the lakeshore around five inches with decreasing amounts as it moves eastward. – the Kuchera model (not shown) is showing up to seven inches of snow along the lake shore.

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Next we have the GFS models showing our snow and cold persisting on through the first week of February.  I would think the groundhog will bite its handlers on Ground Hog day if they drag him out of his warm burrow.  We will be hard pressed to break out of the teens.  Next Wednesday we will be in the low single digits with wind chills predicted to be 30 below.  Snow flake size in these cold temps will be small and any wind will tend to create white outs as it blows around.

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After a warmer than normal December, January should end up below normal as will at least the first half of February and perhaps into March.  According to Dr. Judah Cohen a research scientist at Atmospheric and Environmental Research  “the GFS forecast clearly shows downward propagation of positive polar cap geopotential height anomalies from the stratosphere to the troposphere, the surface AO is predicted to turn decisively negative and high latitude blocking is the norm rather than exception over the next two weeks. Also, warm temperatures are predicted across the North American Arctic including Alaska and Greenland. Therefore, relatively cold temperatures are expected to be widespread across the Northern Hemisphere (NH) including Northern Asia, Northern Europe and Eastern North America. Relatively warm temperatures are also expected in the Barents-Kara seas, the region of the Arctic with the greatest negative sea ice extent anomalies. I would expect the relatively cold pattern to last at a minimum of four weeks and up to eight weeks.”

In the southern hemisphere it is quite the opposite with a heat wave in Australia. https://a.msn.com/r/2/BBSElgp?m=en-us 

Wild weather in the U.S. predicted with the intrusion of cold air: https://a.msn.com/r/2/BBSDYiD?m=en-us

First sunrise in 66 days in northern Alaska : https://a.msn.com/r/2/BBSBDdF?m=en-us

 

Category: Michigan Weather Forecast, Winter weather advisory

37 thoughts on “Winter Weather Update – Advisories”

  3. Fox 17 weather had to add a color to there map next week because of it being so cold ..Funny stuff…INDY ….

  4. Our local met says the low Wednesday night will be -14°. That’s really cold.

  5. Seeing some yellow on radar in some snow bands thats heavy heavy snow folks coming down in Kent and Allegan county..Get the shovels ready … INDY!

  8. Wednesday high of 0* degrees yes 0* it’s only happened 8 other times in GR history I’m thinking El nino swam away lol..INDY!

    1. That’s a week away yet. They can’t even get the temps right for the next day most of the time.

  9. We will have enough snow on the ground come Monday if that storm drops a little south but don’t be sold on that just yet ….GFS model as of 2pm today has no change for seen waiting on 12am models now to roll in…Now term it’s been snowing since 930 this morning out at the YARDOFBRICKS its pileing now so go ahead drop a further south Monday lol ..INDY!

  10. I came down with some kind of bad bug last night was up much of the night coughing and then had some bad chills and took my temperature and had a fever of 101.3 so I took some advil and a good dose of Nyquil and then slept most of the day. Sill not feeling right yet. But hey you do not want to hear about me right? Well here at my house about 10 miles NW of Grand Rapids I am getting light snow at this time and there is now 1.5″ of new snow on the snow board unlike the last snow this is a very dry and fluffy snow. There is now a total of 4.5″ of snow on the ground here. the temperature is now at 23.5°
    Slim

  11. Good news for us north of GR from the NWS! Looks like the snows are trending south! Sorry Michael, looks like it’s coming for you!

    The next wave is shown to arrive on Monday and push east of the area
    Monday night. Overall there is a trend noted in the models to track this system further south with some guidance suggesting it may miss us. We will continue to feature high pops and a potential for widespread accumulations.

    The range of impacts from this
    potential system are considerable. The lake effect behind it will likely end up heavy at times and the amounts could pile up mainly for the westernmost row of counties. Van Buren into Allegan
    counties are expected to see the most lake effect snow. An elevated risk for more than limited impacts looks possible.

    1. Huh, imagine that. This is just a continuation of the looooooong trend of every major storm slipping by and missing us one way or another.

  12. Had freezing rain going to Holland this afternoon. Second time this week I’ve been on the freeway and couldn’t see through my windshield from the ice buildup.

  14. No the storm on Monday will not miss us to the south! It is making a b line right towards lower mi! Bring it on! This is quite a dramatic pattern change that is still evolving! Absolutely incredible!

  16. Currently 24* degrees with moderate snow falling out at thee YARDofBRICKS…Sure is beautiful outside! INDY ..

      1. Wow …I’m thinking schools will be closed next week for days …. Interesting Cold coming INDY!!

  18. Interesting to see if the state of Michigan will close all the schools next week due to the life threatening wind chills we have on the way … Stay tuned …INDY!!

  19. It is routinely very cold, and we experience a substantial amount of snowfall, during the Winter months in Michigan. Year after year, after year.

  21. Are the models starting to back off on the snow storm for Monday? I watched Aaron offseyer live Facebook this morning and he said that it’s looking like the heaviest is trending south and my weather pros app isn’t making a big deal about anymore?

  22. Western Michigan (Arctic Snow Showers Ahead)
    THE WEATHER PROS

    THU JAN 24, 2019

    11:20PM UPDATE

    =====

    ARCTIC SNOW SHOWERS

    The cold front has just passed Western MI and the snow showers from Lake Michigan and Superior will run right into tomorrow night. Overall we see 3-5″ in the Grand Rapids areas with 4-8″ or more closer to the lake possible. This snow is spread out over a 36 hour period tapering to flurries by 11pm Fri Night.

    =====

    CLIPPER CITY

    In an Arctic pattern like this you’ll get quick moving weak systems but they are moving fast and moisture starved. As they sweep through the Arctic Pin wheel pattern they are like spokes on a wheel with quick periods of light snow or snow showers. We see two of them on the maps right now. 1st one is Sat Night with the next Monday Night.

    =====

    THIS AFTN

    Snow Showers

    1″ by Dark

    Highs 26

    Winds 10-16mph

    =====

    TONIGHT

    Snow Showers

    ACCUM 1-2″

    Lows 8-12

    SALTING YES

    =====

    TOMORROW

    Snow Shower

    1″ Likely

    0-1″ Fri Night

    Highs 10-12

    Lows 2-4

    Winds 10-20mph

    =====

    SATURDAY

    AM Flurries

    Night Light Snow

    Up to 2″

    Highs 16

    Lows 9

    =====

    SUNDAY

    Flurries

    High 14

    Lows -3

    ======

    MON TO TUE

    Periods of Light Snow

    ACCUM 1-2″

    Highs 15

    Lows 3

    =====

    WEDNESDAY

    Snow Showers

    Highs 7

    Lows -2

    =====

    LONG RANGE

    FEB 1-10

    =====

    FEB 05 Poss. Snow

    FEB 08 Poss. Snow

    =====

    G.R. SNOWFALL

    This Winter 25.6″

    Avg up to Now 45.6″

    Last Winter to Now 44.3″

    ====

    NEXT UPDATE

    TOMORROW A

  23. Winter wins!! Wow look at the snow and cold coming!! After winter Spring will arrive! MV great post and pic.

  24. BREAKING NOW snow is falling heavy lk bands are cranking up! It may snow for a week straight stay tuned!! INDYSNOW!

  25. According to the weekly CFSv2’s, the last of the major cold for winter ends around the beginning of February. After that it switches between warm, average, and just slightly below average until mid March.

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