We have been waiting anxiously or with dread for the other shoe to drop and winter weather to return to our state. During the November snows we all thought we were in for a cold snowy winter with the exception of Slim and a few others who got it right. Our abnormally warm and snowless December and first half of January left the plows and snowblowers asleep in their sheds. The one thing I did get right was the fear of ice events which in any case is worse than snow. The good thing to come out of all of this winter thus far is not having to drive in winter storms and the snow.
We all know all good things must come to an end, things change and this is the rule of life – no amount of whining will change the outcome. We have had quite a few days with a blank weather map this winter with no hazards in site. Now the U.S. is lighting up with multiple hazards with snow warnings and watches.
Most of New York and New England have a winter storm watch for heavy mixed precipitation. Total snow and sleet accumulations in excess of 7 inches in 12 hours and ice accumulations of up to two tenths of an inch possible. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. To our west and Southwest we have watches and advisories for up to six inches of snow and wind. The Rockies are bracing for 18 or more inches of snow dependent of location and altitude. For those of you who have never experienced foot an hour snowfall it is quite an awesome site. There are those of us who laugh at an inch of snow bringing the southern states to a standstill – out in the northern Appalachians we would laugh at mid-westerners who suffered through six inch snowfalls when we were getting and surviving 24 inch or more inches of snow. One has to remember though that Maine and the Rockies mountains don’t have the large road systems which exist elsewhere or the amount of people driving on them. The areas which pick up huge amounts of snow also have huge snowblowers mounted on their trucks to keep the roads clear.
We are setting up for a more active weather pattern and colder air, the coldest since last January. Last January we had the same bouncy pattern we have this year – on the 16th we had morning temps in the single digits to low teens. After a couple days we were back into the 40s with rain showers. Now we have the coldest air of the season coming in the short term leaving some to wonder if this will last or be another bump in the road. First we have the NAM snow forecast through 18z (early afternoon) on Sunday showing most of the snow falling south of Grand Rapids. The second image shows the low passing to our south dragging in colder air into the state during the same timeframe.
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Now we have the GEFS forecast through February second which leave us to believe that wintry conditions could last for a couple weeks at least. First is the snowfall forecast which is focusing on a couple snow storms after midweek next week and beyond with 9 to 15 inches predicted during that time period. The second is the mean temp forecast which shows the cold air remaining in place for the most part.
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In the near term we have snow showers in the forecast mainly south of I96 where two to six inches are possible with higher amounts to the south of I94. This begins early Saturday morning through the early afternoon. Sunday we will see high temps in the low to mid teens at night we will drop into the negative numbers. Monday night we will see our chances of accumulating snow increase as we go through the week and we may see the most snowfall we have seen so far this winter.
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Oops I tried to post a map and it didn’t work, sorry
Interesting winter weather advisory kicks in at 7pm tonight to 4 pm tomorrow right on track with my last post yesterday 1-3 inches of snow norhh GR 3-5 some local 7 inches south of GR let’s up them totals now here we go ….Thanks INDY!
My wife is in Elmhurst, west of Chicago. They’re under a Winter Storm Warning for 5-9″ starting tonight. She was thinking of coming home tomorrow, originally. She will wait until Sunday now – to allow the roads to get cleared.
When this storm rolls to the east it’s going to open the flood gates in Chicago some places are going to get over 12 inches of snow, Sunday may not be a good day either keep eye on the lk effect. Your spartys won a tough game last night . INDY!
That was a really good game. Nebraska is solid. They had won 20 in row at home before last night.
Still hoping MSU and Michigan continue to win before their game next month. It will be epic.
Imagine that!
Last nights snowfall was yet another one that can only be measured by tenths or one hundredths of an inch. We had less then 1 tenth, so maybe 4 or 5 one hundredths of an inch?
THE WEATHER PROS
JAN 17, 2019 THU
10:00AM UPDATE
ROB GUARIANO
315-925-2500
==========
SNOW THIS AFTERNOON
Snow showers and flurries are across the area from about lunch today to early this evening. You may have already salted and that should cover you for this event.
==========
WEEKEND SNOW
The NAM model has this storm about 1-2″ higher than what I have posted on the maps and we’ll see if this stays the same or we upgrade a little more for the Saturday storm. We also changed some start and end times due to the slightly different track for Saturday.
=========
THIS AFTERNOON
Snow Showers
12pm-8pm
ACCUM: Coating to 1″
SEE MAP
High 30-33
Lows 23-26
==========
SAT 1am-SAT 6pm
Snow Likely
ACCUM 2-3″ GR-Flint
ACCUM 3-4″ Kalamazoo
to the DET Metro Area
Chance 90%
Highs 24-28
Lows 8-18
==========
SUNDAY
MLK DAY
TUESDAY
Sunny Skies
Snow Poss TUE/WED
Highs 13-30
Lows -2 to 19
==========
LONG RANGE
JAN 24-FEB 03
==========
JAN 26 Flurries
JAN 28 Light Snow
==========
NEXT UPDATE
TONIGHT 11PM
FOR NEW INFO FOR
SATURDAY
This is a paid site I pay for. I like to compare it to the locals.
Thanks for sharing. What is next Wed going to be like? I heard stormy.
Thanks for sharing. What is next Wed going to be like? I heard stormy.
Boy, the temps have really come up for the game in KC on Sunday!! Actually not going to be bad at all! From KC NWS…
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 27.
Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21.
Imagine that .
There is some hope for us “Warmies” that this cold could short lived! https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DxIvjJWUcAAcVCT?format=jpg&name=medium
Would not be surprising given the long term pattern we have been in for years now of mild and storms missing us. I wonder what this Spring will bring? More blah and storm less weather? Just over a month away now.
Friends along rivers with the artic blast setting in fast watch out for fast freezing ice and ice chunks causing ice jams especially around narrow and bends of rivers could produce fast rising water make preparations now.. Fox 17 just said 2-4 inches of snow for GR and 4-7 inches of snow for kazoo Saturday so yes this snow storm is trending more north now look for weather advisorys soon Winter storm watches comes up to the Michigan Indiana State line definitely got some snow coming ..Stay tuned INDY!
Why dont you post what Bill just said over at wood .. 1-2 inches for GR.. Guess we pick what tv station has the highest amounts. Lol !
Another day to add to the BELOW normal snowfall season.
Lol, that is exactly what I was talking about the other night… usually 8 is the only one that knows anything. I rest my case….
Looks like the lake effect will be non existent with the predicted North winds. Bad news for people at the South end of the lake.
But we were suppose to get nailed this weekend by that so called snowstorm.. Lol !!
I’m thinking the uncertainty still is out there about Saturdays storm but I’m seeing a further north track now giving GR 4 or 5 inches of snow with a winter weather advisory coming, the EURO is showing ready 15 inches of snow for GR on Tuesday now that’s far out but one thing for sure with the cold air here storm track is setting up shop right over Michigan any thoughts MV’S best? love it …stay tuned INDY!
15″ of snow by Tuesday?? That seems rather unlikely.
Well, at indys house anything is possible. lol.
****Winter weather advisorys and winter storm watches have been issued for Chicago west all eyes on my Michigan now see if we get into any for Saturdays storm stay tuned ….INDY
Just got back from North of Cedar Springs a ways, and it’s really odd seeing zero snow 3 weeks in to January. Does anyone know how far North you have to go to find snowcover?
This is from Steve DiMartino who writes a east coast blog and has a paid weather site.
“The latest data from the ECMWF on the stratosphere shows an interesting dynamic that could have lasting impacts on the state of the troposphere through at least early Spring. It shows a moderate surge of additional warming of the stratosphere. Should this forecast verify, and so far the guidance has been pretty on point, this would mean the stratospheric and tropospheric Polar Vortex will remain weak, if not split, for the next several weeks, likely through March and possibly into early April.
So what this means for the eastern half of the US is that the pattern is likely to continue to feature waves of cold weather through March with the potential for winter storms through early April. Does that mean your back yard will get a lot of snow moving forward? Well, it’s not a promise, as you know, but at the very least this adds another factor to support at least the chance. One thing is for sure, the start of the baseball season this April is likely to be a chilly one”
Not sure how good of a long range guesser Steve is but we shall see how this plays out.
Slim
I like to look at the NWS discussions from other offices to our west and one item that stands out to me with the expected cold spell that looks to be coming and that is I am just not sure how much snow the Grand Rapids area will get in the next week to 10 days. I think the weekend system will miss GR to the south so we many be lucky if we get much over an inch. And even with the cold the winds will be out of the north not good for lake effect here in GR (or much of lower Michigan) That said we very well might have a “back loaded winter” and it could be cold well into the “spring” season. We shall see.
Slim
We took a quick trip to Bay City yesterday. The temperatures dropped all the way there starting in the upper 20’s at my house getting as cold as 18 in the center of the state and then back into the low 20’s with sunshine in Bay City. The roads we rather slippery east of Howard City to Mt Pleasant. Even M 46 had many icy spots on it. (note they must have had a lot more ice there as the trees and signs has icicles on them and the ground was cover with ice also) But that said the odd thing was driving that far in Mid January and not seeing any snow on the ground.
Slim
Great winter write up MV! The tables will be turning big time to some real winter weather! Bring it on!
Looks like I’m going to need to break out the hat and gloves for the first time this winter. I’m just happy the days are getting longer. I don’t like going to work and coming home from work in the dark.
Great maps MV love the fact we are on the northside of the cold divide that means one thing Snow snow and snow .. After Saturday s 2-4 inches loook out for Tuesdays storm with norm could be a BIG daddy 6+ then behind that more cold air blows in and lk effect gets crankin and the possibility of a nother storm Friday Storm track is setting up shop right over Michiganders get to the store now stack up on sprites lights candy and ice we will be racking stacking and tracking all weekend like the government I’m shutting down the YARDOFBRICKS this weekend with great sports on shuuu what can you do it’s going to be fun have a wonderful Thursday MV’s best check your furnace check on your pets before our big Winter blast …Stay warm INDSTORM!
Not sure if GR will get that much snow this weekend. Might be closer to one inch we shall see.
Slim
Looks like WOOD downgraded the storm for this weekend. NWS GR doesn’t seem as excited this morning about the storm midweek either.
GR is now 22″ below average snowfall. Yesterday, marked another decline is average daily snowfall. We are no longer in the snowiest 4-6 weeks of the year.