Winter Weather Update

Santa is getting the reindeer fattened up for their journey from the north pole as seen in the feature image.

Well, we are closing out a cold November and meteorological winter is about to begin.  There are many thoughts on how this winter will turn out and the many wild cards which may come into play which can change the weather patterns over the U.S..  Without getting into the scientific jargon of vertical air transports it is my thinking at this point that due to the active weather pattern we have seen as of late we may see a similar pattern for December as we have had in November.  This is due to Pacific storms moving into the U.S. and gulf moisture which can move warm moist air into the eastern parts of the country.  Though we will more than likely end up with a colder than normal November with snow we also had relatively warmer air in the 40s which has brought rain and melted the snow.  It is hard to predict storms which may form in the Pacific and move inland and the resultant patterns which this may cause including polar disruptions which may move build cold air into our area.

It is my thought that this pattern may continue through December, with these thoughts there is the fear of ice storms which may result from the current pattern we are in.  This may or may not happen, it is just something to keep in mind as we move into winter.

The rate of North American snow cover advance rate has slowed somewhat but remains near decadal highs. With continued cold air across Canada and the Northern US, North America snow cover will likely continue further. The early advance of snow cover across Canada this fall, has likely contributed to an early start to winter across the Northern US.  Below are the current snow and ice maps, you can click to enlarge.  Note the Bearing Sea is largely still open as is the area north of Greenland.  The Hudson Bay continues to increase its ice cover.

[columns] [span4]

[/span4][span4]

[/span4][span4]

[/span4][/columns]

---

Below are today’s models runs – the first is the GEM snow forecast showing the possibility of next weeks storm and the lake effect which will follow through the rest of the week.  The second is the GFS which shows the forecast guess through mid month with both rain and snow predicting our active pattern to continue but be both rain and snow.  The third is the GEFS guess on snowfall accumulation through mid month.  The final graphic is the CFS model graphic is the 850mb temp forecast.

[columns] [span3]

[/span3][span3]

[/span3][span3]

[/span3][span3]

[/span3][/columns]

---

Current CPC forecasts a 40% chance of a colder than normal December and a 33% chance of below normal precipitation.  Below are the graphics for the next 15 days.  Keep in mind these are percentage of chances and are not engraved in stone.

[columns] [span3]

[/span3][span3]

[/span3][span3]

[/span3][span3]

[/span3][/columns]

---

We can expect light snow through the morning hours today with a chance of some freezing drizzle over night, high temps will reach around freezing and begin rising over night which will bring in a mixed bag of precipitation for Friday morning.

The weekend looks to be wet with off and on rain showers with temps in the low 40s – the cold air moves back in Tuesday with snow showers likely – still watching the possibility of a storm in this time frame but at this point I am thinking the lake effect snow machine will be the biggest threat.