Slims GR Climate Summary on Substack
Winter weather advisories go into effect this morning for the southern half of the lower Peninsula.
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO
10 AM EST SATURDAY...
* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 3 and 5
inches with isolated amounts over 6 inches.
* WHERE...Allegan, Kalamazoo, Ottawa, Van Buren, and Muskegon
Counties.
* WHEN...From 8 AM this morning to 10 AM EST Saturday.
* IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road
conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday
evening commute.
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 4 inches. * WHERE...Lake, Mason, Newaygo, and Oceana Counties. * WHEN...From 8 AM this morning to 10 AM EST Saturday. * IMPACTS...Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will likely become slick and hazardous. Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the Friday evening commute.
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 3 inches. * WHERE...Portions of central, south central, and southwest Michigan. * WHEN...From 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Saturday.
Forecasts
Weather History
1982: Extreme arctic outbreak brings record cold temperatures and massive lake effect snow totals. Muskegon has their snowiest calendar day on record with 22 inches. This contributes to the all-time record monthly snowfall of 102.4 inches (8 and a half feet!) at Muskegon for January 1982.
On January 10, 2009, a strong low-pressure system tracked east along the Ohio River, producing 6 to 9 inches of snow along and south of M-59. Snowfall totals quickly tapered off north of M-59. Some of the higher snowfall totals reported included Ann Arbor 7.9 inches, Brighton 9.0 inches, Carleton 8.5 inches, Ferndale 9.0 inches, and South Lyon 9.0 inches.
On January 10, 2004, the temperature in the cities of Bad Axe and Richmond dropped to -9 degrees. This turned out to be the coldest air of the season.
Forecast Discussion
- Accumulating Snow Today into Saturday Morning Snowy road conditions and slower travel speeds are likely over much of the area later this morning and tonight. A pretty standard-fare event for January but impacts worthwhile to mention. This will occur in two parts. First, a steady 2 to 3 inch snow for most, beginning late this morning and ending by the middle of the night, as mid and upper level moisture streaming in from the southwest is lifted by phasing upper-level troughs. There may be southwest-wind lake enhancement which would favor a swath of over 3 inches by evening in parts of Muskegon, Ottawa, western Allegan, and possibly southwest Newaygo. Second, during the overnight into Saturday morning, northwest-wind lake effect snow showers should result in more intermittent heavier bursts of snow with highly variable conditions. Combining both phases of this event, spotty totals over 6 inches are plausible in lakeshore areas west of US-131. The HREF mean QPF for the synoptic contribution inland is generally 0.15 to 0.2 inches, though there is a 20 to 60 pct chance of over 0.2 inches (local minimum perhaps near M-66). The moisture layer is fairly deep and extends above and below a moderately thick DGZ with gentle lift throughout. Snow/liquid ratios should be fairly normal, between 12:1 and 15:1 per Cobb snow tool and NBM. The southwesterly lake effect during the afternoon-evening will be in the vicinity of a slow-moving surface trough where surface convergence is maximized along a wind shift. The southwesterly lake effect convective layer is fairly low-topped and may not extend into the DGZ, but should provide some precip production regardless. Once the surface trough passes east, deeper cold air extending above 850 mb in northwest flow will grow lake effect showers into the DGZ. Bursts of high snow/liquid ratio snow with over an inch per hour are possible late tonight in some lakeshore areas. By late Saturday morning, the HRRR has been a more robust model in giving parts of the lakeshore south of Muskegon QPF over 0.5 inches and possibly isolated amounts over 0.75 inches, which would indicate potential for localized amounts well over 6 inches. - Arctic Air With Continued Snow Chances Early Next Week A slow moving upper level trough will bring our next winter system to the area Sunday into Monday and a shift to a colder pattern through the remainder of next week. Sunday we`ll be in a regime of warm air advection with some convergence provided by the low level jet and additional lift from rounds of positive vorticiy advection. Guidance has been highlighting a dry slot at 700 mb with better saturation in the lower levels. Looking at soundings there is a concern that we will lack cloud ice resulting in freezing rain chances. Therefore have introduced slight chances for freezing rain to the forecast until Sunday night. This could impact snow amounts, but overall several inches is possible mainly along and west of US-131 through Monday. The front and colder air will move through sometime early Monday morning with westerly winds throughout the day. The upper level low over the Great Lakes will advect another vorticity maximum through the area Monday evening with winds gradually turning to the northwest through the day Tuesday into Tuesday night. The flow off of the lake along with colder temperatures will continue snow chances through the week with better bursts timed with the shortwaves and positive vorticity advection Monday night into Tuesday, potentially Wednesday morning, and toward the end of the workweek. Our warmest day will be Sunday with temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s. Highs then drop in the teens for Tuesday with 20s expected the remainder of the week. Lows are expected to be in the single digits to teens with Monday night into Tuesday morning being the coldest.
Approaching 3 inches from this storm and more to come! Incredible!
Roads are in rough shape in my area. Be careful if traveling!
We are getting pounded with snow! Wow!
GREAT news – the latest long range keeps the cold and snow rocking right into February! Who knew?
What a storm, what a winter! Is the word of the month COLD or SNOW? Hard to say but they go and in hand! Keep the snow rocking and rolling! Get your snowblower and skis ready to rock! We could end up with record breaking snowfall this winter!
Let’s goooo!! INDY
Just got home from Battle Creek. More snow here than there. About 2” here and maybe an inch in BC. Roads aren’t horrible. Slushy but I have good tires so it wasn’t an issue. Drove 60-65 mph all the way home.
Just took a snowfall measurement and here in MBY there is now one inch of new snowfall and there is now a total of 2″ on the ground.
Slim
Roads are snow covered and slippery be safe outside…INDY
I have 1″ of new snow and now 2″ on the ground.
Slim
We are getting pummeled with snow!!!! Wow, what a winter and it is just getting started! Incredible!
Roads in my area are snow covered and slippery right now. Snowing at a steady pace!
Looking good Monday and Tuesday for more snow could we be seeing WSW ??? Several more inches on the way … INDY
Not only that, but the CPC highlights us in a slight risk of heavy snow between Jan. 17-23
What? I thought it was a dry uneventful
Month and a mild winter! How wrong could they be?
Well it is snowing here in Grand Rapids, at this time there is 0.2″ of new snowfall. One thing I will mention is that the ground is now mostly frozen and here in west Michigan that is some what unusual as many times we get a lot of lake effects snow and that insulates the ground. 27 here with light snow falling.
Slim
WWA again great Scotty … Get to the store and grab more roads will become snow covered and slippery through out the day in all of lower Michigan as our below average Wiinter cold and above average snowfall continues hard core … rock n roll will never die.. INDY
You know it! Facts are facts!
50 degrees at the orange bowl last night in Miami Florida can we say we are in a deep freeze all the way to Florida…. wow to the wow … INDY
No it will not be a dry January, no it is not a mild easy winter! Nothing could be farther from the truth! We are set up for a snowy January and a cold and snowy winter! The RDB prediction of 80 to 90 inches of snow for GR is right on pace! Who knew? Get ready to rock and don’t say you were not warned!
GRAND RAPIDS CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 9, 2025 The official H/L at GRR was 26/8 there was a trace of snowfall and there remained 1” of snow on the ground. The highest wind was 20 MPH out of the S. there was 48% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is 31/19 the record high of 57 was in 1975 the coldest high of 5 was in 1982. The record low of -19 was in 1942 the warmest low of 45 was in 2020. The wettest was 1.69” in 1975 the most snowfall of 5.2” was in 1999 the… Read more »
TGIF
Would someone please explain the snow/liquid ratio? 10/1 vs 15/1 – which of these would offer lighter, fluffier snow?
Yes, I could use the Google machine. But we’re here to learn and share knowledge, right? 😁
The higher the ratio the more fluffy the snow would be. For the most part lake effect snow is more fluffy. The huge snowfall numbers you many times see on the snowfall maps use the 1 0/1 ratio for the most part.
Slim
Thanks Slim.