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Winter Weather Advisory

Posted on by MichaelV (Otsego)

According to model predictions the area between Grand Rapids to Kalamazoo and eastward to Lansing appear to be in the sweet spot for heavy wet snow tonight into Monday morning.  This mornings NAM, NAM NEST and GFS are all consistent with over six inches of heavy wet snow.  With lake effect mixed in lakeshore counties may pick up close to a foot through Tuesday.  These are predictions based on a 10:1 ratio so amounts will vary.  Below are the NAM and GFS guesses for snow accumulations from the system baring down on us.  (click to enlarge the images).

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The advisory begins at 7pm this evening running through 1pm tomorrow.  I won’t be surprised if a warning is released later today as the track of the storm becomes more apparent.  This is the latest morning discussion from the NWS.

- Confidence is now moderate to high in the placement of the snow
  accumulations axis along the I-96 corridor which is further
  south than previous forecast packages. However, a small shift
  further south is still possible.
- Confidence is moderate in snowfall amounts of 3-5" with a
  localized band or two of 6-9".
- The timing of the heaviest snow has shifted later, with the most
  impactful weather now expected between 10 PM Sunday and 1 PM
  Monday. An even later arrival time is possible, encompassing
  both the Monday morning and evening commutes.
- Confidence is high in a period of lake effect snow on Monday
  night through Wednesday morning, with the heaviest on Tuesday
  west of US-131.

Category: Michigan Weather Forecast, Winter weather advisory

87 thoughts on “Winter Weather Advisory”

  1. No school! They called it after our high schooler was already in the shower, but she is just fine with going back to bed.

  3. There is light snow falling here NW GR. There is about a half inch on the grass, the road is just wet. The temperature here is 33° (32.5)

  4. Why do they keep going back and forth between Winter Weather Advisory and Winter Storm Watch? When you read it there is not much difference.

  6. UPDATE…
    Issued at 934 PM EST Sun Nov 25 2018

    Based on the recent trends in the high res models we upped the
    snow amounts slightly mainly for the southern half of the CWA and
    bumped up the winds in the WSW. We also mentioned inch per hour
    rates possible and changed the wording for an impacted morning
    commute to expected.

    The precipitation will transition to all snow over the next few
    hours as the intensity picks up. Currently, surface temperatures
    are relatively warm so impacts will be delayed a few hours. Later
    tonight and through the morning commute the snow will be heavy at
    times, mainly along and south of I96. This is where the latest
    guidance is settling in on a general 4 to 8 inches with locally
    more. Surface temperatures are still in the mid to upper 30s but
    that will change over the next few hours. This should result in
    slushy conditions on the roadways. Based on the the mixing height
    and low level wind fields there should be plenty of gusts over 30
    mph and some near 40 look possible. We will continue to mention
    the possibility of some power outages, especially with it being a
    wet snow.

    1. Thanks Mark…. still weird not been updated to a warning.. Good Luck with your kids tomorrow … hope they get their snow day also 🙂

      1. Thanks Sheri. You too. Mine pulled out all the stops – spoons under their pillows, wearing their pjs inside out, etc. I think the NWS is really gun shy and doesn’t want to overshoot the first storm of the season. Then again, if the temps don’t start dropping, we’ll get more rain than snow.

  12. I’ve got a hunch that this storm is going to be much less than advertised. It sure seems like there is a lot more warm air and rain than snow showing up at this point.

  13. It sure sounds like the kids will have a snow day Monday! It will be interesting to see how this storm tracks.

  19. Sweet spot has shifted down to Battle Creek to Lansing per wood tv 8 .. Aww shucks.. Lol

    1. They will end up being 100% wrong! The deformation zone will be setting up right near GR and pound us with SNOW!

      1. Sort of a toss up on this…. keeping it an advisory is a mental game making it not seem so bad… Switch to a Warning… and BAM… schools close 🙂 I love snow days for my son and so I am hoping as much as he is. He is still burned out from last weeks exams… was a tough week for him!

  20. This storm is coming together nice don’t forget the lk effect after this storm looks like November snow will be I
    Piling up stay tuned INDY!

    1. I’ll check in with the NWS tomorrow with the facts on the snowfall totals! Perhaps Slim could post the totals here?

  24. Updated NWS discussion highlights:

    The snow will be disruptive, but not crippling, thus we kept the
    Winter Weather Advisory and did not upgrade to a Winter Storm
    Warning.

    Strong UVV`s will produce snowfall rates of a half inch to inch per
    hour for a few hours between I-96 and I-94. We believe the heaviest
    snow will fall within a 50 mile band from South Haven to Alma. Grand
    Rapids should be on the northern edge of this band.

    1. The statement that the snow will be disruptive but not crippling says it all for the reason for NOT issuing a winter storm warning, Not all snow falls are a “storm” just like in the summer time not all thunder showers are “storms” and not all thunderstorms are “severe”
      Slim

    2. With heavy snow and blizzard warnings to our southwest I think the GRR office is waiting to see which way they want to go…..

  25. ……..breaking weather news……. the RDB model still gives GGR 6 to 10 inches of snow and a special RDB Winter Srorm Warning has been issued! Rock n roll will never die!!

  27. Let’s review the facts we have blizzard warnings and winter storm warning all around us yet the gr nws will not pull the trigger! Wow!

  28. The gr nws is a joke. This will end up with well above warning criteria yet no warning. Give me a break!

  29. NWS DTX upgraded the thumb to Winter Storm Warning. NWS GR chose to keep us all in a Winter Weather Advisory. They expect it to be “disruptive, but no crippling.” Looks like we’re in the sweet spot, though

  30. NWS lowering totals now too, cutting the total in half for tonight.

    Tonight
    Rain showers likely before 7pm, then rain and snow showers likely between 7pm and 8pm, then snow showers after 8pm. Low around 28. Northeast wind 11 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of around 3 inches.

    Monday
    Snow showers, mainly before 1pm. Patchy blowing snow before 8am. High near 32. North wind 14 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of around 2 inches.

    Monday Night
    Snow showers likely, mainly before 7pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. West northwest wind 9 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

  34. NWS it’s talking about power outages and white out conditions now for GR could we be talking about a blizzard starting to roll that way .. Slim Rocky get in on this thought ..INDY!!

  35. Accuweather backing off on totals. from 5 to 9″ to 4-6. Keep dropping south. It will be a mess either way. Be safe tomorrow.

  37. Here’s to hoping for a snow day for my son to extend his Thanksgiving break and help me to finish decorating the tree.. 🙂

  40. Slim Rocky this storm is starting to slow down now could that mean more precipitation or the speed bringing it down in intensity? INDY!

    1. If it slows down right over us it will mean more snow!!!!!! The slowing down should not adversly affect our storm!

  41. Love it talking about a major snowstorm so early in the winter season has a few shaking there heads on here shovel it up summer is only 6 months away lol .. Let It Snow Let It Snow Let It Snow … THE GREAT AND POWERFUL SNOW!! INDY!!

  45. Keep that line shifting south!

    We simplified to headlines to two groups…a northern grouping
    and a southern grouping. Short range models continue to shift
    slightly farther south with the band of heavier snow. Still
    looking at light snow to begin around 10 pm tonight north of I-96
    with some rain to the south. Then, rain changing to snow south of
    I-96 after 2am or so. Half inch to inch per hour snowfall is
    possible overnight from Grand Rapids, to Alma south to Kalamazoo
    to the north side of Lansing.

    1. Yep, dont need all this snow at once. Hoping it shifts enough so the heavier snow is south of here..

  46. Why the winter weather advisory? I thought with amounts there calling for it would be a winter storm warning.. Things that make you say .. hmmm.

    1. I have to wonder the same thing. My guess is that there have been too many times in the past where there was a winter storm watch that had to be down graded to a advisory,
      Slim

  47. The bottom line a major snowstorm is headed right at us! Get prepared now and get ready to rock n roll!

  48. Great thoughts Slim keep us informed today one thing for sure I love a uncertainty storms even the meteorologist are challenged today should be fun watching it roll in! Let it snow let it snow let it snow. This will boost our already above normal November snowfall yeaaaa! INDY!!

  50. I see what a difference the new forecaster at GRR makes in our area forecast. Off to our west in Chicago land they are in a winter storm warning and there is talk of blizzard like conditions. While on our side of the lake we are in a winter weather advisory. I see there are areas to our west where up to 13+ inches are being the guessed snow fall amounts. While on our side of the lake it is only in the 3-5″ range with a small area of 6-9 possible. we will have to see how this all plays out. Now to put this in perspective. Using the highest amounts in the guess of 5″ at Chicago IL 10″ at Rockford IL and 9″ at Grand Rapids. In recorded history there have only been 6 times where 5″ of more of snow has fallen in a one day storm at Chicago 2015, 1975, 1951, 1940, 1895 and 1891. At Rockford IL if the 10″ plays out there has only been 8 times ever where a one days storm has recorded 10″ there and none were in November the earliest was in December of 1987. And here in Grand Rapids we have only had 3 times where a one day storm dumped 9″ or more in November. and they were all lake effect events as far as I can tell. They happened in 2014, 2000 and 2014. I can see why the GRR forecaster is some what gun shy on this storm. We will have to set back and see how this plays out. My guess is west Michigan will be under a Winter Storm Warming later today and or tonight (depending how this all pays out) Time will tell.
    Slim

  51. From newaygo to Allegan county is in the sweet spot for this storm look for 10-12:inches of snow coming as of now! Most major Schools will be closed tomorrow I have been up for 37 hours now tracking this storm it means business get to the store now GR maybe snowed in from fast moving deep snows this system going to dump a ton of snow on us! Stay Tuned to IWS we are ready out at thee YARDofBRICKS!! INDYSTORM!!

    1. This looks to be a wet heavy snow so if this plays out it would be 1. hard to drive in. 2. hard to shovel. and being early in the season there could be a lot of traffic issues.
      Slim

  52. 6Z RDB model gives the GR area 6 to 10 inches of snow! Stay tuned for later updates!!!

  53. Breaking news,,,,,,,,,,we will be upgraded to a warning this afternoon! Get prepared now!

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