We still have a while to go, and we do not know how this winter will play out. Last winter Grand Rapids had its 2nd warmest December on record with a mean of 38.3 January had a mean of 27.1 and February had a mean of 35.4 good for the warmest February on record. The meteorological winter had a mean of 33.6. The winter season (October to April) only had 47.5” of snowfall with 31.3” of that falling in January with most of that falling in a two week period. Since 1950 all winters that had less than 50” of snowfall had more snowfall the next winter. So that is a good guess for this winter that more than 50” will fall. That said here is a list of winter weather Warnings and Advisories criteria. I will try to post this information again as we get closer tot the winter season.
Winter weather related Warnings, Watches and Advisories are issued by your local National Weather Service office. Each office knows the local area and will issue Warnings, Watches or Advisories based on local criteria. For example, the amount of snow that triggers a “Winter Storm Warning” in the Northern Plains is typically much higher than the amount needed to trigger a “Winter Storm Warning” in the Southeast.
Blizzard Warnings are issued for frequent gusts greater than or equal to 35 mph accompanied by falling and/or blowing snow, frequently reducing visibility to less than 1/4 mile for three hours or more. A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds and poor visibilities are likely, leading to whiteout conditions making travel extremely difficult. Do not travel. If you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with your vehicle and wait for help to arrive.
Winter Storm Warnings are issued for a significant winter weather event including snow, ice, sleet or blowing snow or a combination of these hazards. Travel will become difficult or impossible in some situations. Delay your travel plans until conditions improve.
Ice Storm Warnings are usually issued for ice accumulation of around 1/4 inch or more. This amount of ice accumulation will make travel dangerous or impossible and likely lead to snapped power lines and falling tree branches. Travel is strongly discouraged.
Wind Chill Warnings are issued for a combination of very cold air and strong winds that will create dangerously low wind chill values. This level of wind chill will result in frostbite and lead to hypothermia if precautions are not taken. Avoid going outdoors and wear warm protective clothing if you must venture outside. See the NWS Wind Chill Chart.
Lake Effect Snow Warnings are issued when widespread or localized lake induced snow squalls or heavy showers are expected to produce significant snowfall accumulation. Lake effect snow usually develops in narrow bands and impacts a limited area. These bands can produce very heavy snow with sudden restrictions in visibility. Driving conditions may become hazardous at times.
And for advisories
Winter Weather Advisories are issued when snow, blowing snow, ice, sleet, or a combination of these wintry elements is expected but conditions should not be hazardous enough to meet warning criteria. Be prepared for winter driving conditions and possible travel difficulties. Use caution when driving.
Wind Chill Advisories are issued when low wind chill temperatures are expected but will not reach local warning criteria. Extremely cold air and strong winds will combine to generate low wind chill readings. If you must venture outdoors, take precautions against frostbite and hypothermia.
Lake Effect Snow Advisory are issued for widespread or localized lake effect snowfall accumulation (and blowing snow) remaining below warning criteria. Expects lake effect snow showers and assume travel will be difficult in some areas. Some localized snow bands will be intense enough to produce several inches in a few areas with sudden restrictions in visibility.
Yesterday was yet another dry and sunny day. The official H/L was 66/36 there was no rainfall for the month GR is now at 0.88” that is a departure of -1.45” since September 1st there has been just 2.20” for a departure of -3.56” For the year there has been 29.96” that is a departure of -2.17”. For today the average H/L is now down to 59/41 the record high of 80 was set in 1910 and 1920. The coldest high of 33 was set in 1930. The record low of 19 was set in 1974 the warmest low of 61 was set in 1920. The most rainfall of 0.91” fell in 2011, the most snowfall of 4.5” fell in 1989. Last year the H/L was 57/52 and there was 0.29” of rainfall.
The overnight low so far here in MBY is 37 that is the current temperature with clear skies.
REA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
330 AM EDT SAT OCT 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
– FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
– ONLY RAIN CHANCES IN 7 DAY FORECAST REMAIN ON TUES NIGHT/WED
– WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY…THEN COOLING OFF
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT SAT OCT 19 2024
– FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH MODERATING TEMPERATURES
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE IN CONTROL OF THE WX PATTERN TODAY
BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WITH PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SW FLOW WAA
IT WILL BE A LITTLE MILDER TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING THE
MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S. RGNL IR SAT TRENDS CORROBORATED WITH 00Z
HREF CLOUD PROGS SUGGEST NOTHING MORE THAN SOME HIGH CLOUD COVER
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SW FLOW WAA WILL BE A LITTLE STRONGER SUNDAY WHICH IN CONJUNCTION
WITH AMPLE SUN WILL HELP TO BOOST HIGH TEMPS INTO THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 70S. TIME HEIGHT RH PROGS DO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR MORE IN
THE WAY OF HIGH CLOUD COVER BUT THIS WILL NOT INHIBIT TEMPS FROM
REACHING INTO THE 70S GIVEN THE INCREASINGLY STRONG WAA REGIME.
– ONLY RAIN CHANCES IN 7 DAY FORECAST REMAIN ON TUES NIGHT/WED
UPPER RIDGING ON MONDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW ON
TUESDAY, BOTH OF WHICH WILL CONTINUE THE STRETCH OF DRY WEATHER OUT
OF THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH LATER IN THE DAY ON
TUESDAY WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER. RAIN
CHANCES WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE LEAD SHORTWAVE IS
MET WITH A STRONGER WAVE DIVING OUT OF A NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE 7 DAY FORECAST WILL
LIKELY COME ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW WAVE PLOWS THROUGH
AS DOES A HEALTHY COLD FRONT. WE HAVE 60 PCT CHANCES FOR RAIN ACROSS
CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN ON WEDNESDAY, OUR HIGHEST CHANCE IN THE
ENTIRE FORECAST. DEEP MOISTURE IS HELD WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE OF
MICHIGAN, SO WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING CLOSE TO HEAVY RAIN. MOST
AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE TRACE AMOUNTS TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH OF RAIN.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN BEHIND WEDNESDAY’S COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND WE ARE EXPECTING DRY WEATHER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
– WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY…THEN COOLING OFF
A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY WHEN 850MB TEMPERATURES
PEAK AT +16C. 850MB TEMPERATURES THAT WARM ARE FAIRLY RARE THIS TIME
OF YEAR. HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 70 OR INTO THE LOWER 70S THIS
WEEKEND WILL SURGE WELL INTO THE 70S ON MONDAY. GFS MOS TEMPS ARE
STILL VERY WARM AT GRR ON MONDAY (82F) WHILE THE ECMWF MOS IS COOLER
(75F). TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE OF THAT RANGE, UPPER 70S, IS THE
MOST LIKELY OUTCOME. 82F WOULD BE NEAR RECORD AT GRR ON MONDAY, THE
RECORD IS 85F. THE MORE LIKELY UPPER 70S ARE STILL 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL WHICH IS VERY LARGE DEPARTURE FROM NORMAL. A CRASH TO REALITY
OCCURS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES PLUNGE TO
TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO C. THE THERMAL TROUGH WILL BE OVERHEAD ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN ECWMF 850MB TEMPS HIT -2C AND GFS 850MB TEMPS
HIT -7C. SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT THERE WILL BE A FAIRLY WILD
DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURES FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON (UPPER 70S) TO THE
LOWS THAT OCCUR THURSDAY MORNING (AROUND 30) ACROSS CENTRAL LOWER.
HIGHS ON THURSDAY MAY HOLD IN THE UPPER 40S ALONG U.S. 10.
Detailed Forecast For Grand Rapids
Today
Sunny, with a high near 69. Calm wind becoming southwest around 6 mph in the afternoon.
Tonight
Mostly clear, with a low around 47. Light south southwest wind.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 72. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.
Sunday Night
Clear, with a low around 54. Southwest wind around 6 mph.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 75. Southwest wind 5 to 8 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Monday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 52.
Tuesday
Partly sunny, with a high near 72.
Tuesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 53.
Wednesday
A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 66.
Wednesday Night
A chance of showers before 2am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 38.
Thursday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 53.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 35.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 58.