We continue to watch the progress of the developing storm system which is once again giving a more southerly track from the model data posted yesterday afternoon.
Clinton, Barry, Eaton, Ingham, Van Buren, Kalamazoo, Calhoun and Jackson counties for total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches possible. The heaviest snow is likely to be along I-94.
Huron, Saginaw, Tuscola, Sanilac, Shiawassee, Genesee, Lapeer, St. Clair, Livingston, Oakland, Macomb, Washtenaw, Wayne, Lenawee and Monroe counties for total snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches.
Rain will switch over to snow across Southern Lower Michigan tonight. Light accumulations from a dusting to around an inch are possible for Kent, Ottawa and Allegan counties before the lake effect kicks in on Wednesday when we may (or may not) get another four or so inches.
Here is the morning discussion from the NWS:
-- Some occasional light snow today -- The initial shortwave will continue to shear out today which will lead to less than impactful weather. There will be some occasional light snow from time to time, we better chances this afternoon as we start to see affects from the stronger upper wave to our west. Anything today though will be on the lighter side and should not have impacts given temperatures that will rebound above freezing. -- Main system snow begins tonight but expected more on Wed -- So, there are few instances in regard to impactful winter weather that are more challenging than trying to get a handle on potential phasing streams/shortwaves. This event is not different in that regard. The persistent trend in the models has been to constantly shift the heavier snow south run by run as the shortwave in question over the plains trends further south and more progressive as it lifts through our region. The surface low in the models has trended south as well. The GFS for instance at this time last night at a low at 12z Wed over Benton Harbor MI. The low now at the same time is forecast to be over far southeast Indiana. Its tough to nail down headlines with that much of a slide ongoing in all the models. So, the bottom line up front is that we have decided in coordination with all neighboring offices and our national center WPC to keep the watch, but trim it back considerably into our southern CWA. At this point we feel the trend is towards a Winter Weather Advisory but that decision will likely be made by the day shift today. Snowfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches still look likely in the main swath with the system in our area, its just trended in the far south and southeast CWA towards AZO, BTL, JXN and LAN. Metro Grand Rapids looks to be on the northern fringes of the heavier precipitation, so amounts will likely be in the trace to two inch range in that area. The snow will come in waves from this afternoon through the day on Wednesday, with the heaviest occurring on Wednesday when the upper wave finally begins to close off to our east. There in lies the issue with this system is it takes longer now in the models for the system to close off a bit in the mid levels, almost to the point where it is by us. The waves phase finally into Wednesday night and the low deepens but this all occurs off to our east as the system is lifting into Canada. We will miss out on that deformation zone precipitation for the most part. Given how much this system has changed in the models from day to day and run to run we feel comfortable keeping the watch at this point as we are not sure the changes/trends have stopped. Main impacts will continue to be travel related on Wednesday for the most part. -- Lake effect snow chances Wednesday night through Friday -- Lake effect snow chances are still expected from Wednesday night through Friday. We look to be a little less favorable though in terms of the cyclonic side of the upper jet. We are more on the anticyclonic side now which is less favorable. Still expecting some lake effect snow but its probably not going to be big totals.
I am assuming this will change during the day with watches changing to advisories or the track may continue to meander to the north or south however the trend has been a southerly track. Stay tuned for updates…
Snow day for the kids!
One local tv station says 2-3 for us, and the other says 3-5. Looks like our snow day-free season will continue – much to the dismay of our offspring.
Better then the dusting we are getting here lol…INDY
Watched Matt kirkwoods live Facebook earlier, can def tell he’s a little stressed on the United States way of forecasting. He favors the European Model and says other countries are way ahead of us on forecasting weather. He wasn’t happy how this played out for sure.
The guy loves Winter Weather he’s un happy like a lot of us this winter ….He’s a great meteorologist nice guy also meet him a few times …I see him taking Bills chief job when he decides to hang it up….INDY
I think he would make a great chief, he was very disappointed in the nws this morning for sure. But really is Bill ever gonna retire, weather is what he lives for.
Bill is an awesome guy, it will be a very sad day when he retires.
Bill is a personal Friend he told me he’s never retiring they will have to force him out lol…..I hope all is well Andy …INDY
Oh yeah, going great! Hope all is well with you too INDY!
It’s sad he lets his personal feelings get in the way sometimes. He always predicts cold and snow. This isn’t wishcasting. It’s science.
Let’s just hope we don’t get to warm in March and April then cool off in May and hurt the growing season like in 2012 or get severe Tornado outbreaks this Spring but grilling and chilling yes on that. ..INDY..
Well the good news is that the NWS did not issue a Winter Storm Warning or we would have had Winter Storm Not part 2. I can not remember when was the last time there was a Winter Storm Watch and there was no snow or ice at all! At this time it is 39 here with cloudy skies.
Slim
…WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING…
* WHAT…Snow is expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6
inches possible.
* WHERE…Portions of south central and southwest Michigan.
* WHEN…From this evening through Wednesday evening.
* IMPACTS…Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS…Uncertainty remains with regard to the axis
of heaviest snow as well as forecast snow amounts. Therefore the
watch remains in effect.
On a separate note, I was in South Florida over the weekend and am so glad to be back in Michigan! Nothing but heat and humidity, alligators, super strong sun that gives you a burn fast, stinky swamps, bugs, complete flatness, no big trees, expensive toll roads, traffic jams, old people everywhere, and dead fish wherever you look due to red tide. The water table is so high and gross that there is no cold water from the faucet unless you buy a super expensive water cooling system.
I have been to Florida many, many times in all seasons. Winter is by far the best time to be down there. The temperatures are great almost like our summer time. You time it was hot and humid now you should go in late July to mid September. Then it is HOT and HUMID some of the posters who think it is hot and humid here in the summer well what can I say. I agree with you I do not like the tap water there. The toll roads (may be coming it Michigan) I don’t like. Traffic jams are… Read more »
Another “miss”…never a bad thing. Spring?…nothing to look forward to as our routine, unbearable cold is overdue.
Get ready GR the wsw may turn into a heavy dusting of snow!
http://wxcaster.com/gis-snow-overlays.php?STATIONID=GRR
That’s a fine line between significant snow and nothing.
With spring now just around the corner one attention now turns towards spring and just what will spring 2020 bring? Well as luck would have it as we head into March and spring there are now indications that the positive NAO that has brought the eastern US a mild winter will now flip to a more negative NAO and guess what? That change could happen around mid March. What will that mean? Beware of the Ides of March. I will say no more.
Slim
Cool would be fine, it would just be nice to have a drier stretch for a while instead of constant rain like the past year. I think the clay around our property has been soaked and wet every month except last July.
If a negative NAO were to hold into summer there would be more of a chance of a wet summer. But it could be cool.
Slim
The good news is that average high is 45+ degrees in just a few weeks, so even a little “cool” spell around that time frame may only mean temps in the upper 30’s and lower 40’s.
I’m hoping for moderate temps and some thunderstorms. That is all.
Yet another example of how little we know on how weather patterns behave. As has been stated we put too much faith into our computer technology (not just if weather forecasting) In weather forecasting just like in many other news and life events there are too many who think that they can predict down to the minute and mile when something is going to happen or in some cases not happen. Now that I have stated that I am still waiting on how todays technology would handle a major weather event (and get it right) not the every day events… Read more »
Ridiculous, but like I said yesterday not really surprising. I would always trust the recent trends over any computer model, and the trend all Winter has been for every storm to miss us or fall apart. Partly sunny skies just to my NW, time to move on into Spring.
Get ready for a warm March? Hello spring!
https://twitter.com/bamwxcom/status/1231939592883929088
There are hints that the NAO pattern could change in mid March. Beware of the Ides of March.
Slim
The more I think about how horrendous all the models and how bad all the mets were with this storm the more I think this winter may go down in history as the worst seasonal forecast ever for SW MI! All models, all signals and virtually every major station and weather site all predicted a colder and snowier winter for our area! What a total ridiculous debacle!
Slim nailed it! I trust Slim more than any meteorologist! He doesn’t get caught up in any hype, just tells it like it is! So glad to have Slim & Michael as the voices of reason on this blog!
Anybody can come on a day before the storm and give there thoughts I believe I was the first to say possible storm coming this week last week maybe or 2 weeks ago I spends lots of hours tracking lots of my free time out of work hype or not it’s fun for me … I could come on and and say what’s going to happen the day before a storm but what fun is that?? I probably would be batting 100% this winter season not 30% lol…INDY
I wonder how Matt Kirkwood is feeling about his 112″ for Holland prediction this winter. In fact, all of WOOD said it would be a cold and snowy winter. Farmers Almanac and Joe Bastardi too.
Every major site and met said above normal snowfall and cold! They were all horribly wrong!
Still making a million what he loves best !! He’s been up north a lot this Winter having fun spending some of that million he gets for being a meteorologist lol…INDY
Breaking news the latest RDB model shows GR picking up 1 to 2 inches of snow and the trend may actually be lower with the 12z! Stay tuned!
Does this mean February will finish below average snow like the rest of the winter months? I love short winters!
Here is the latest and the horrendous GFS model. Still farther south and less snow! What a joke!
http://wxcaster.com/gis-gfs-snow-overlays2.php?STATIONID=GRR
Keep in mind all of the models were way off on this storm! Just a pathetic display of failed technology!
Humans have become too dependent and complacent on technology.
Hey Mark I totally agree with you and garbage in = garbage out!
“Breaking news>>>>>the last RDB still shows 6 to 8 inches for GR! Stay tuned for the latest updates tomorrow! The track may be moving to the North and the deformation zone will be expanding!” Rocky
That was last night even though the models were already shifting south at that time. Whoops!
It’s now been 16 days and counting since GR has received more than an inch of snow. What an incredible snowless pattern! Rest of the week looks quiet too and then another warm up.
What a bust! Rocky’s RBD model promised us 4-8” but now GR will be lucky if they get an inch! I love it!
Local met just said anywhere north or west of Lansing will be lucky to get any snow at all. He also said he would not be surprised if more counties are dropped from the watch.
I am making plans to head up to snow country for a few more days of skiing this weekend and the beginning of next week! Will this be the last time this season or will more snowstorms pummel us?
>>>>>Breaking Weather Alert>>>>>>>this is the worst the models and the meteorologist have ever done with a winter storm! Absolutely pathetic, especially the GFS! The absolute worse! Even the RDB was way off. The latest 6Z RDB gives GR a whopping 1 to 2 inches and if the storm keeps moving South and phases later GR may get a dusting! Ridiculous!
INDY is throwing the towel in on Winter this storm did it for me …I believe tracking storms 30 years ago was better then now the technical part is terrible back to radar tracking 200 miles out no more MODLES for me you can’t trust them ….I’m ready for the grill and the smell of fresh cut grass and watch the terrible Tigers bring on spring this Winter sucked…On that thought im off to bed been up all night tracking our missing storm ….INDY
The worst model debacle ever! What a joke!
Agreed. That’s why I like our local met, Andy Provenzano. He’s been forecasting weather in this area for several decades. He knows how tricky it can be. And he errs on the side of caution when the computers can’t seem to agree.