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Winter Storm – The Michigan Weather Center
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Winter Storm

Yesterday our high was 35° and the low was 23°.  We had .9 inches of snow which gives us 10.5 inches since November 21st.

Snow showers, with mostly minor accumulations, are expected today, but some slushy roads are possible. Colder temperatures arrive with gusty winds this evening, and the roads could turn icy. The snow showers then persist through Thursday. Several inches of accumulation will be possible in much of West Michigan, along with blowing and drifting snow. Whiteout conditions could occur.




...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM
EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow
  accumulations between 4 and 10 inches with locally higher amounts
  possible. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of southwest and west central Michigan.

* WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Visibilities may drop below 1/4 mile due to falling and
  blowing snow. The strong winds and weight of snow on tree limbs
  may down power lines and could cause sporadic power outages.
  Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could
  impact the Wednesday evening and Thursday morning commutes. Gusty
  winds could bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow squalls will impact the Wednesday
  evening commute with visibility rapidly falling below 1/4 mile and
  rapid changes in road conditions including the I96, I94, US131,
  US127, and I69 corridors. Heavy lake effect snow along with gusty
  winds develop behind the squalls with a potential scattered power
  outages as well as poor visibilities and hazardous travel
  conditions Wednesday Night into Thursday.

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1
AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow and blowing snow expected. Total snow accumulations
  between 2 and 4 inches with locally higher amounts possible. Winds
  gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Portions of central and south central Michigan.

* WHEN...From 5 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Wednesday evening and Thursday morning
  commutes. Gusty winds could bring down tree branches.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow squalls will impact the Wednesday
  evening commute with visibility rapidly falling below 1/4 mile and
  rapid changes in road conditions including the I96, I94, US131,
  US127, and I69 corridors. Lake effect snow along with gusty winds
  develop behind the squalls with a potential scattered power
  outages as well as occasional poor visibilities and hazardous
  travel conditions Wednesday Night into Thursday.



Weather History

1886: A record cold snap continues across Lower Michigan. Lansing falls to 13 degrees below zero, as the temperature hits zero or below on the first five days of the month.

1941: Three days before the attack on Pearl Harbor, Lower Michigan is basking in record-warm early December weather. Record highs include 60 degrees at Muskegon, 63 degrees at Grand Rapids, and 64 degrees at Lansing.

2009: A narrow band of heavy snow across central Ottawa and Kent Counties drops over a foot of snow from Allendale to Comstock Park. Up to 15 inches falls in northern sections of Grand Rapids.

On December 4, 1998, the overnight temperature did not drop below a balmy 51 degrees in Detroit.


Forecast Discussion

- Light Snow Through This Afternoon

An upper-low diving towards the region is driving a surface low
north of the area today.  The warm air advection wing of this system
will keep light snow ongoing today, especially near and north of I96
. Accumulations will generally be 3 inches or less by this afternoon
keeping travel impacts minimal. There is a low chance of drizzle or
freezing drizzle late this morning into the early afternoon once the
DGZ dries out.

- Lake Effect Snow, Blowing Snow, and Windy Tonight into Thursday

Bottom line up front, have upgraded the current Winter Storm Watch
into a Winter Storm Warning from this evening to early Friday.
Osceola, Mecosta, and Calhoun were also added to the warning. All
remaining counties across West Michigan are under a winter weather
advisory for the same timeframe.

The first phase of the event is expected this evening when an arctic
front sweeps across the area. Surface based instability and strong
low-level convergence likely leads to the development of snow
squalls along the front. Snow squalls will lead to rapid reduction
of visibilities to near zero and rapid changes in road conditions.
Of particular concern is that these squalls will track along the
I96, I69, I94, US131, and US127 corridors during the evening
commute. The arctic air behind the front will also lead to any
lingering moisture on the roadways quickly freezing. Winds may gust
over 40 mph along the front as well given strong mixing.

Behind the front snow there may be a brief lull in snow showers
before lake effect snow ramps up this evening. Given low-level theta
e lapse rates in the negatives and boundary layer winds exceeding 40
knots these snow bands will be able to reach well inland. Two snow
maxima are expected. Northwest flow drives the heaviest lake effect
snow bands tonight into Thursday across the Grand Haven to Holland
to Battle Creek region, and potentially further east if organized
banding persists. Second, as low-level flow becomes more northerly
into the day on Thursday, several CAM solutions suggest that lake-
effect bands are able to get a Lake Superior connection leading to
an additional snowfall maximum across the northwestern CWA and
enhance snow across the rest of the warning area from enhanced
moisture if this occurs. Snowfall totals will vary across counties
due to the banded nature of lake effect snow. Across the warning
area a general 6 to 10 inches of snow with locally higher amounts
possible is favored. In the advisory area where lake effect snow
squalls will be more scattered in the post frontal environment a
general 2 to 6 inches of snow is expected with locally higher
amounts possible.

A deep  mixing layer tapping into the aforementioned strong boundary
layer winds will lead to wind gusts exceeding 40 mph bringing
concerns for scattered power outages and blowing snow in addition to
the heavy lake effect snow tonight into Thursday. Travel conditions
will be hazardous due to occasional whiteouts from snow and blowing
snow along with snow covered roads Tonight into Thursday morning.
The Thursday morning commute will be particularly impacted, with
snow and winds continuing to affect the Thursday evening commute as
well. Snow diminishes Thursday night as surface ridging advances
into the area.

- Potential for rain arriving Sunday night

A mid level low that will be over the Southwest U.S. on Friday will
lift out into the Plains Sunday and through the Great Lakes region
Monday.  Warm and moist air advection ahead of this feature will
warm temperatures up enough for rain to be the main precipitation
type with this next system.  An upper level wave digs into the Upper
Plains behind the initial wave for Monday.  The upper wave then
tracks into MI for Tuesday. This feature will extend the
precipitation here in MI into Tuesday.  As the column cools later
Tuesday and more so Tuesday night, any remaining precipitation will
mix with and change to snow. Deterministic qpf values from the
models generally support around a quarter inch across northern zones
with around a half inch over southern Lower MI.  Ensemble values
show a fair amount of spread, but at this time potential impacts
from this event look low.  Melting snow will add to the runoff, so
we will have to monitor the water equivalent values after the
current system is done.
newest oldest
INDY
INDY

Im thinking Blizzard warnings coming for tomorrow any thoughts MV’s best?? INDY

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

Wow!!!! Thundersnow at my house!! I love it!

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Enjoy!

INDY
INDY

This is nuts out at thee YARDOFBRICKS just had a Blizzard a flash freeze and severe Thunderstorm all with in 15 minutes this storm is one for the record books…Woooooo!! Stay safe tonight INDY

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Monster winter storm and only the first week of December! Incredible!

Mr. Negative
Mr. Negative

Very strong gusts. Just heard the loud crack/crash of a tree coming down. Won’t know till tomorrow 🙁 Plenty of new snow.

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

We getting absolutely plastered with SNOW!

*SS*
*SS*

Just had lightning and thunder

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

Thundersnow in Muskegon County! As well as near Ludington.

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Who loves winter along with cold and SNOW?

Jesse (Montcalm co)
Jesse (Montcalm co)

It has started to rain (drizzle) at 31F here in NE Montcalm county. Not a good combination for the evening commute.

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

32 here will drizzle, as well.

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

The NWS has backed off the snowfall amount forecast just a bit. Regardless, a good amount of snow is still forecasted for you westsiders. Multiple factors with this event – wind, visibility, windchill, and hazardous road conditions.

Slim

We shall see how this plays out. After this event there looks to be a long dry mild period that takes us almost to Christmas. My guess is if that plays out December could end up warmer than average and there still could be less than average snowfall.
Slim

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

That will not happen! Forget about dry and warm till Christmas! The models will change by next week! Mark it down!

Slim

It has been marked down. We shall see. Looks like there will be 40’s next week and that could last longer we shall see.
Slim

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

Back into the 40s starting this weekend. I plan on hanging our outdoor lights Sunday afternoon.

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

When one winter weather headline expires more takes its place lol bring on the storm!

INDY
INDY

Let’s Gooo!! Winter storm warning…INDY

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Incredible winter so far!

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

+1

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

BREAKING WEATHER ALERT>>>>my point forecast gives me 6 inches of snow, 20 to 45 MPH winds and temps dropping into the teens! Yes this is a monster storm and it will be dangerous this evening and tomorrow! Definitely WSW worthy – don’t take this lightly and be smart and safe! WOW, just wow, WOW!!! incredible!

Slim

The overnight low here in MBY was 24 I recorded a half inch of new snowfall yesterday and there is 1” of snow on the ground at this time. There is a Winter Storm Warning out at this time the snowfall amounts don’t look all that impressive but there could be some wind with this system so we shall see. There will be a brief cold spell before it warms up and rain by Sunday.
Slim

Slim

The official H/L yesterday at GR was 31/24 there was 0.08” of precipitation that fell as 1.0” of snow. The highest wind gust was 31 MPH out of the S There was 3% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is 40/28 the record high of 65 was in 2012 the coldest high of 22 was in 1895 the record low of 6 was in 1993 the warmest low of 54 was in 1998. The wettest was 1.27” in 1973 the most snowfall of 5.9” was in 2009 the most on the ground was 12” in 1940.
Slim

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Already above normal snowfall and now a WSW! It is going to be a wild winter! Get prepared now!