First off, just to make it very clear to everyone. 1. This is NOT a political blog and anything to do with politics will not be allowed. 2. No personal attacks on another blogger. Such post maybe removed and repeat violations could lead to being banned from the blog.
With winter 2022/23 now all but over it is time to look and see how the winter season was. We all know it was a snowy but mild winter season. From time to time it has been mentioned that this winter season has been mild and temperature wise it sure has. The mean December thru February mean at Grand Rapids was 31.0 that is +3.7 above average. So it is no surprise that the winter season has been declared “mild” by using the AWSSI point system. So just what is the AWSSI point system?
The AWSSI is not limited to meteorological winter (December ‐ February) but is intended to capture winter weather from its earliest occurrence to its last. The winter season begins when the first of any one of the following instances occurs:
First measurable snowfall (>= 0.1 inch)
• Maximum temperature at or below 32°F
• December 1
The winter season ends at the last occurrence of any of the following:
• Last measurable snowfall (>= 0.1 inch)
• Last day with 1 inch of snow on the ground
• Last day with a maximum temperature of 32°F or lower
• February 28/29
Daily scores are calculated based on scores assigned to temperature, snowfall, and snow depth thresholds. The daily scores are accumulated through the winter season, allowing a running total of winter severity in the midst of a season as well as a final, cumulative value characterizing the full season. Accumulations of the temperature and snow components of the index are computed separately and then added together for the total index. This allows comparison of the relative contribution of each to the total score.
The AWSSI has been processed for 52 locations across the continental U.S. to provide a variety of locations in different climate regimes for analysis. The AWSSI is calculated for each season from 1950‐1951 to 2012‐2013. The seasonal data is then subject to quality control, and seasons missing data that would contribute 5% or more of the seasons AWSSI are removed . Averages and standard deviations are calculated for running accumulations of daily temperature and snowscores as well as the total AWSSI. The AWSSI data is gathered every hour throughout the day.
This has been a very mild winter season here in Michigan. Using the AWSSI all locations in lower Michigan have had a “mild” winter season. While Sault Ste Marie and Herman in the UP have had a “moderate” winter and Ironwood has had a average winter and Marquette has had a “severe” winter. Here are the current AWSSI point values. Grand Rapids 579, Muskegon 443, Lansing 433, Ann Arbor 439, Detroit 340. Port Huron 284, Flint 456, Saginaw 482, Houghton Lake 815, Alpena 813, Cheboygan 860. In the UP Sault Ste Marie 1601, Hermon 2109, Ironwood 2111, and Marquette 1952.
The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 44/31 there was no rain or snow fall. The sun was out for 32% of the possible time. The overnight low for today so far is the current temperature of 32 with a cold rain falling at this time. For today the average H/L is 48/30 the record high of 77 was set in 1945 and the record low of -1 was set in 1974 the record snow fall of 7.7” fell in 1930. Last year the H/L was 46/33.
DISCUSSION
(TODAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT SAT MAR 25 2023
— WINTER WEATHER TODAY —
WE HAVE NO CHANGES PLANNED TO THE ONGOING HEADLINES AS THEY LOOK
TO BE IN VERY GOOD SHAPE. THE WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN
PLACE FOR MASON, LAKE, OSCEOLA AND OCEANA. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY BORDERS THE WARNING TO THE SOUTH. PRECIPITATION IN THE
WARNING AREA WILL BE MAINLY SNOW, WHILE MORE OF A MIX IS EXPECTED
IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
THE MIX IN THE ADVISORY AREA IS DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE WARM
LAYER ALOFT NOSES INTO THESE COUNTIES WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN AFTER BEGINNING AS SNOW. THE PROGRESSION
IN THE ADVISORY AREA SHOULD BE FROM SNOW TO FREEZING RAIN AND BACK
TO SNOW. AGAIN, THE WARM AIR DOES NOT REALLY MAKE IT INTO THE
WARNING AREA SO IT SHOULD BE ALL SNOW FOR THE MOST PART IN THOSE
COUNTIES. SNOWFALL IN THE WARNING AREA STILL LOOKS TO BE IN THE 5
TO 8 INCH RANGE, BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISE TO SEE A COUPLE DOUBLE
DIGIT TOTALS IN MASON COUNTY ESPECIALLY. IT IS IN THIS AREA THAT
DEEP LIFT WILL PIVOT THROUGH FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. RADAR TRENDS AT
300AM SHOW A DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS PORTIONS OF WI/IL AND IT IS
THIS HIGHER REFLECTIVITY THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH WEST CENTRAL LOWER
MICHIGAN. IN TERMS OF HOW MUCH ICING WE WILL SEE, TEMPERATURES ARE
VERY MARGINAL AND ONLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING AT THE
COLDEST AT THE SURFACE. WE ARE THINKING UP TO OR AROUND A TENTH OF
AN INCH OF ICING IS POSSIBLE IN THE ADVISORY AREA. FURTHER SOUTH,
WE WILL JUST BE TOO WARM TO SEE IMPACTS FROM ANY LIGHT SNOW OR
LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THAT MAY DEVELOP FOR A SHORT TIME AS THE
PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO WORK IN FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
ARE ALREADY ABOVE FREEZING OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA OR NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-96.
— WIND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING —
AS THE DEEPENING LOW WORKS NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING A SWATH OF STRONG WINDS WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE AREA. THE CONSENSUS OF SHORT TERM HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
SUGGEST WIND GUSTS SHOULD PRIMARILY BE IN THE 35 TO 45 MPH RANGE.
THE HRRR IS AN OUTLIER SHOWING HIGHER GUSTS IN THE WIND ADVISORY
RANGE OF 45 TO 55 MPH RANGE. AT THIS POINT WILL LEAN ON THE BULK
OF THE GUIDANCE WHICH SUPPORTS GUSTS REMAINING AT SUB ADVISORY
LEVELS.
— MAINLY DRY MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY —
WHILE IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL BE MAINLY DRY IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK, THERE ARE A FEW CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. A WAVE SLIDES BY TO OUR SOUTH IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT
ON MONDAY AND THERE IS DISPARITY IN THE OPERATIONAL MODELS AS TO
WHETHER WE SEE SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION (RAIN/SNOW) ON MONDAY. WE
HAVE CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST (30-40 PCT) ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN CWA ON MONDAY.
OTHERWISE, WE FEEL MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH HIGH
PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT A LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP THINGS DRY.
— PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE END OF THE WEEK —
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BECOME DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW TOWARDS WEEKS END.
WITH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS PUSH 850MB
TEMPERATURES TO +10C. WE WILL SEE RAIN SPREAD IN AHEAD OF A DEEP
PLAINS LOW FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. IT’S SPRING TIME IN THE
MIDWEST, SO SNOW TO WARMTH AND RAIN IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR LATE
MARCH.
Detailed Forecast For Grand Rapids
Overnight
Showers. Low around 32. Breezy, with an east northeast wind around 24 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Saturday
Rain showers and sleet before 11am, then rain showers between 11am and 5pm, then snow showers likely, possibly mixed with rain after 5pm. The sleet could be heavy at times. High near 36. Breezy, with an east northeast wind 19 to 24 mph becoming west northwest 9 to 14 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Saturday Night
A chance of rain and snow showers before 8pm. Cloudy during the early evening, then gradual clearing, with a low around 27. Blustery, with a west wind 21 to 26 mph decreasing to 13 to 18 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Sunday
A 20 percent chance of showers after 2pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 43. West wind 7 to 11 mph.
Sunday Night
A 10 percent chance of showers before 8pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Northwest wind 6 to 9 mph becoming northeast after midnight.
Detailed Forecast For Muskegon
Overnight
Showers. Low around 33. Breezy, with an east northeast wind around 21 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Saturday
Rain showers, snow showers, and sleet before noon, then rain showers between noon and 5pm, then snow showers likely, possibly mixed with rain after 5pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 35. Breezy, with a northeast wind 14 to 21 mph becoming north northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of around 2 inches.
Saturday Night
A chance of rain and snow showers before 8pm. Cloudy during the early evening, then gradual clearing, with a low around 30. Blustery, with a west northwest wind 21 to 26 mph decreasing to 14 to 19 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 39. West wind around 8 mph.
Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. North northwest wind 6 to 9 mph becoming east northeast after midnight.
Detailed Forecast For Lansing
Overnight
Showers. Low around 34. East wind around 16 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Saturday
Showers. High near 43. East northeast wind 8 to 18 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Saturday Night
Rain likely, possibly mixed with snow showers, mainly before 7pm. Cloudy during the early evening, then gradual clearing, with a low around 29. Breezy, with a west wind 18 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.
Sunday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 46. West wind around 10 mph.
Sunday Night
A slight chance of showers between 9pm and 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31. Northwest wind 6 to 9 mph becoming northeast after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
Nice Spring day! Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow!
I can remember Blake Harms on Bills blog as a kid now he is one of the weatherman on wood 8 still a young man…INDY
To Indy, yes I talked to Bill a few year ago out at the Whitecaps and he told me he had met you several times.
Slim
Thats cool Slim good guy sure miss the comment section on his blog … INDY
Bill is incredible. Really nice guy. He wanted to send me some money in the mail for letting him use my picture on his blog and on air which was nice but I told him he didn’t have to give me anything. We talked on Facebook messenger.
Hey INDY it would be cool if we could get Bill and MVs best together and have a gathering. Would be pretty cool.
I agree we tried that in the past me and MV rocky was the only ones that wanted to go MV had a meet and greet once but not a lot of people showed up but yes we should maybe at park somewhere outside…INDY
Breaking News >>>>>> tomorrow and next weekend still looks great for skiing and then winter may actually start to wind down! This about 7 to 8 weeks after some people said winter was dead! Wow just wow! Incredible winter and ski season, just incredible!
Thundersnow again in parts of Gratiot and Isabella Counties. Wow!
Yes, one of the wildest, snowiest winters in history! Incredible!
+1000
March 25th and its 33 degrees out in my hood our below average Spring rolls on!! 40’s in April?? Looking like it buckle up Spring Breakers….INDY
Spring Break = high temps in the 40’s and lows in the upper 20’s to low 30’s with more clouds than sun! Not only buckle up but keep your winter coats and gloves handy! Forget golf!
Good post. It was certainly a mild winter. Where’s the snow? WOOD has 60 degrees in their extended forecast!
I mean it is March 25th, it should be done snowing by now (hopefully!)
I talk to UJ Jack Mellema all most everyday do any of you guys remember him?? We acutely became best friends from Bills blog towrds the end of Bliis blog it got wild I acutely am social media friends with a lot of Bills bloggers them where some good times …Also I am a personal friend of Bill Stephens he been over to my house several times for some good cook outs ..I enjoy weather since I was a kid love Winter over hot weather.. INDY
yup – jack used to do the overnight tunes here on the blog…
I remember him. He was always up for requests or input from others songs!!!
Oh yeah! There are a few others on bills blog who aren’t on here… hopefully we can find some of them. Like Fixxxer
Fixxer was trip made me laugh alot always complain about how cloudy it was in GR and there was someone from Flint cant remember his name loved hot weather one time got really mad and left the blog I swear its mookiee now on here lol!! Bills blog wss rocking 24/7 especially during the storm …INDY
I remember his Name now Travis from Flint Im pretty sure ….INDY
Where was Rob Dale from??? Not sure if it was Dale or Travis but one of the two lived near Pontiac maybe close to Oxford or something but used Flint as his “home” base as at that time Flint was running “warmer” compared to average than Lansing or GR.
Slim
Rob Dale is a retired weatherman from Lansing Michigan he was doing some chassing for Bill a few years back but not around anymore as of GR I see some post from him on the NWS sight once and while….INDY
INDY, are you referring to Travis from Allegan county? I’m friends with him on Facebook. There was someone from Flint (and Muskegon who liked the cold) but I forget their names
We used to have a Travis from Oxford. He used to always talk how warm it was in Flint. I remember a John from Norton Shores that was on the blog a lot. I found Gun Lake Deb on Facebook
Yes travis from Oxford thats him he was a hoot I believe he came over here for a hot minute then left or changed his name … you guys remember DF he was in that Tornadoe that hit around Ann Arbor I believe he was a cool guy also ….INDY
Gun lk Deb thats a memory she was cool!! Remember vincent from nort kent County he was on the blog late at night alot …INDzy
I remember Deb
I remember him he is a good Travis lol…He was on Bills blog …INDY
This damage in Mississippi is unreal. The damage I’m seeing from Rolling Fork looks like EF-5. Absolutely horrible. I’m planning a trip to Mississippi in the next couple weeks to bring down some supplies (clothing, blankets etc).
Wow. I just saw some footage. Absolutely devastating. Thanks for being awesome and helping out.
It is now snowing in Northern Kent county! Who would have thought? Is winter dead yet? What a joke!
I just can’t get over the fact that is it just keeps snowing and snowing this year! I love long winters and skiing here I come! Wow just wow, WOW!
As that band moved through, it looked like it started to hail? Couldn’t tell if it was ice pellets or small hail… either way, all of the trees in my yard are covered in a glaze of ice. All of the roads are currently just wet
Thanks for the statement about NO personal attacks! We have one particular poster that is obsessed with me and mookie, I appreciate you making that point clear! Let’s rock!
Snow country is getting absolutely pummeled with snow right now! I think a ski trip tomorrow is in order! What a winter with above normal snowfall and winter sports all year! Wow, just wow!
Good post, Slim. I don’t care whom someone votes for, I just wish that everyone that wants to vote, can and does vote. I believe this was a good winter for all of us. Lots of snow and warnings for the fans of winter weather. Although, I only needed to shovel 3x. For us fair-weathered folks, it was never was really cold. I’m not sure the last time we remained above zero for the entire season. The human toll down south is now over 20. Keep them in your thoughts. 🙁
Agree with ya Mark. Although we have had the plow out a few more times than you. It was pretty darn cold during the blizzard warnings (had to walk dogs who love snow), I felt like the little brother in Christmas story every time I walked them. Lol.
I can’t imagine the destruction down south. Was watching tht Ryan Hall Y’all channel (at about 3hrs 40 mins in he starts telling people in rolling fork to run to your safe spot…a pro storm chaser saw a wedge down). I see the got around $120,000 in donations for the people down south.
Even a “warm” winter is cold and snowy. It just goes by Michigan standards. November-March is the cold season, May-September is the warm season. October and April are usually in between
Yes as long as we don’t really warm back to cold. I hate that for our farmers!!!
A ski trip In June? Check this out! What a winter!
https://www.cnn.com/travel/article/california-ski-resorts-snow-extended-season/index.html
Great news! It will snow today and the CPC gives us below normal temps into the first week of April! Let’s see more snow as we approach April! What a crazy, snowy and long winter! Incredible!
Thanks for the statement about NO politics! We have one particular poster that is obsessed with politics and I appreciate you making that point clear! Rock on!
Thoughts and prayers to everyone impacted by the severe storms yesterday. So far at least 14 people have been killed. I was watching some of the severe weather coverage. Debris was lifted up to 22,000 feet in the air and I think I heard Ryan Hall say it was lifted up to 30,000 feet at one point. The storm that hit Amory, MS near the Alabama border had a wind velocity around 200knots. One meteorologist said it’s the highest he personally ever seen. I know the pictures once daylight breaks will be heartbreaking.
Hey Kyle Did you watch Ryan Hall for awhile?? I watched at little last night.
Thanks for the reminder Slim – First off, just to make it very clear to everyone. 1. This is NOT a political blog and anything to do with politics will not be allowed. 2. No personal attacks on another blogger. Such posts may be removed and repeat violations could lead to being banned from the blog.