Before I take a look at 3 recent winter 2020/21 outlooks I will look at some averages and records for the month of October. The current 30 year average mean for October at Grand Rapids is 51.1 the warmest is 61.4 in 1947 and the coldest is a cold 42.9 in 1925. Last year the mean was 50.2. The warmest high in October was a hot 89 on October 1, 1897 and the coldest low was 18 on October 30, 1988 and 1974. Over the years it has reached at least 70 every year except 2009 when the highest was just 68. (note it did reach 72 in November of 2009) in 60 October’s it has reached 80 or better. On average Grand Rapids receives 3.26” of rain/melted snow the most was 9.69” in 2017 the least was 0.03” in 1952. On average Grand Rapids receives 0.5” of snow fall in October with the most being 8.4” in 1967. The most in one day was 7.4” in 1967. Last year Grand Rapids received 0.3” of snow fall.
Now for 3 winter 2020/21 outlooks
- Last week Paul Pastelok(Accuweather long range guesser) came out with his updated winter 2020/21 guess For our area he is guessing for a wet and mild winter He it claiming that temperatures will run about +2 and that rain and snow melt with be between 125% and 149% above average. He has only a short written summery for some of our area. “ Early season chill is expected in the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley into the Northeast, then a big turn midseason, ease back on extreme cold, higher temperature departures and less snowfall for mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley.” For areas to our east he has this to say.
“ Another overall mild winter is possible for much of the eastern United States, but chances are better this winter for front end and back end wintry, colder weather in the Northeast leading to near-normal snowfall for much of New England and off Lake Ontario. Watch for a couple of spin-up snowstorms off the New England coast.”
2. Believe it or not last years Old Farmers Almanac was rather accurate in their long range guess. Last year they had November as -2 at Grand Rapids it ended up at -5.5. For December they guessed +4 and at Grand Rapids it was +4. For January they called for +5 and it was +6.9 and for February they called for -1 and it ended up at +0.7. All is all they had the right trend. For this upcoming winter they are calling for overall reading of warmer then average with a colder then average December and January and then a much warmer then average February. Month by month November +3 December-2 January -4 and February a whopping +10
3. The last CPC outlook for December thru February is calling for equal chances for temperatures and a higher chance of it being wetter.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=3
The official high at Grand Rapids will be 52. That will tie 2003 and 1961 for the 3rd coldest maximum at Grand Rapids for any October 2nd in history with just 1993 (49) and 1974 (44) being colder.
Slim
Winter? Michigan will be getting hammered with snow! Expect a near normal temp winter and the storm track bringing one storm after another towards us all winter long! Get ready to rock n roll!
Thanks Slim! The Old Almanac calling for a +10 February?? Wow! Beach weather? If I were to guess, I’d still say yet another similar Winter as the past several. Cooler in November with some snow on the warm ground to drive all the crazies wild, then another mild December & January with more 50’s and 60’s and rain. Sounds perfect!
Yesterday was a mix of some sun but a lot of clouds. I recorded 0.01″ of rain. The overnight low here was 35 and at this time it is cloudy and 39 here.
Note the winter guess(s) above are not my guess. A good starting point for me is always “average” and then take it from there.
Slim
I cringe at thinking about putting together another winter forecast. Seems it has been in opposition to reality the past few years. The lake effect snow machine was pretty much turned off last year for SW Michigan – we had just less than 40 inches in Otsego. Winds were mainly from the north which gave the U.P. all the snow. Most of our snow came from synoptic events. I would dare say we should do better than the 40 inches of last year which in opposition would be less than that. We have 35 degrees here this morning under partly… Read more »
I stopped guessing years ago. Mother Nature always gets the last laugh.
I was in my sis-in-law’s wedding on October 5, 2011. It was an outside ceremony. Morning was cold and halfway through the wedding, it began to snow. The wedding party pics turned out amazing. Trees were in full bloom with snow falling. We groomsmen gave our jackets to the bridesmaids in between shots. It was a great day.
I bet the pictures were beautiful!!