Just for the fun of it I am doing a winter guess based on past winters that went from a El Nino winter to a weak La Nina winter. Since 1950 the winters that have gone from El Nino to a weak La Nina are 1954/55, 1965/66, 1974/75, 1984/85 and 2005/06. This year the fall season has been very warm with a fall mean of 55.6 here at Grand Rapids. Of the past weak La Nina winters the proceeding fall had a mean range from 53.3 in 2005/06 to 46.9 in the fall of 1974/75 the average fall mean was 50.7. The winter mean in the 5 winters had a range of 25.0 in the winter of 1974/75 to 28.5 in 2005/06. The 5-winter mean was 26.6. As for snowfall the 5 winters were very close with a range of 69.6” in 1984/85 to 67.0 in 1965/66. With a 5 winter mean of 68.5”
Based on nothing more then the averages of the 5 winters that had a weak La Nina after El Nino winter my winter guess for the winter of 2024 is “Durm Roll” a winter average temperature of 28.2 that is about +0.9° above the 30-year average. And a snowfall total of 66” that is 11.6” below the 30 year average due to recent trends. Remember this is just a guess and in reality no one knows how much snow will fall or what the average temperature will be but my guess based on past weak La Nina winters after a El Nino wither the temperate mean for DJF will be between 25.0 and 28.5 and the snowfall more likely than not will be between 69.6 and 67.0”
Now with that said here is the latest from CPC for DJF
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1
and their guess for JFM
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2
If that plays out and remember this a big IF we could be looking at a chance of several big snow events. Now the latest CFSv2 has a massive warm up just before Christmas
We shall see.
The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 49/34 there was a trace of rain and there was no snowfall. The highest wind was 34 NPH out of the NW the sun was out just 2% of the possible time. For today the average H/L is 44/31 the record high of 70 was set in 1931 the coldest high of 22 was set in 1970 the record low of 2 was set in 1956 the warmest low of 60 was set in 1931. The most rainfall of 1.16” was in 2014 the most snowfall of 3.4” was in 1970 the most on the ground was 6” in 2000.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
335 AM EST SAT NOV 23 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE OR SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
- LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY TURNING TO LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY
- COLDER WITH POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST SAT NOV 23 2024
- VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE OR SHOWERS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
EXPECTING A WEAK RIDGING PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH PRETTY
NONDESCRIPT SURFACE FEATURES, IN THE SADDLE BETWEEN LOWS TO OUR
EAST AND WEST AND HIGHS TO OUR NORTH AND SOUTH. NEAR THE GROUND, A
SHALLOW LAYER OF COOL AND MOIST AIR WILL BE MAINTAINED BENEATH AN
INVERSION AROUND 850 MB. THE LOW-BASED AND LOW-TOPPED STRATUS OR
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS, WITH ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN, SHOULD
CONTINUE TO SPIT OUT VERY LIGHT DRIZZLE OR OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN,
AMOUNTING A TRACE TO 0.01 INCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. OCCASIONAL
ICE-BEARING CLOUDS DRIFTING OVER TOP IN THE 700-600 MB LAYER WHICH
WOULD PROMOTE SEEDER-FEEDER, AND/OR WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE
FEATURES, MAY ALSO ASSIST. QUITE INCONSEQUENTIAL THOUGH.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S, SO AT LEAST IT
ISN'T FREEZING DRIZZLE.
- LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MONDAY TURNING TO LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY
LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS LIKELY TO TRACK OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN ON MONDAY, AND THE MILDER AIR BROUGHT IN WITH IT IS SET
TO MAKE MONDAY THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS OVER 50
POSSIBLE. THE LOW MAY NOT BE WELL CONSOLIDATED AT 850-500 MB AND
MAY TEND TO ARRIVE IN A COUPLE OF WAVES, FIRST LIGHT RAIN ON THE
WARM SIDE DURING THE DAY MONDAY, THEN A LAKE-ENHANCED RAIN-TO-SNOW
CHANGEOVER LATE MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY MORNING. TOTAL QPF AROUND
0.1 TO 0.25 INCH IS MOST FAVORED, THOUGH SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
ARE EVEN DRIER. A LIGHT COATING OF SNOW LESS THAN AN INCH IS ALSO
GENERALLY FAVORED. BETTER SNOW IS MORE LIKELY IN NORTHERN
MICHIGAN. FARTHER DOWNSTATE, OUR LAKE-ENHANCED SNOWS MAY BE
LIMITED BY RELATIVELY DRIER UPSTREAM AIR.
- COLDER WITH POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
QUICK SUMMARY: COLDER-THAN-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FROM
MIDWEEK THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR
FLOWS IN. OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF SNOW IN SOME AREAS MAY CAUSE TRAVEL
SLOWDOWNS AND SLICK ROADS, ESPECIALLY AFTER THANKSGIVING. THERE
IS A SMALL (ROUGHLY 10 PERCENT) CHANCE OF SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ON THANKSGIVING.
THE ANTICIPATED LONGWAVE PATTERN LIKELY TO SET UP ACROSS SOUTHERN
CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN US WILL FAVOR SHOTS OF MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIR WITH 850 TEMPERATURES -10 C OR COLDER FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE DEEPER COLD AIR WILL FAVOR PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING
LAKE- EFFECT SNOW AFTER THANKSGIVING. THANKSGIVING ITSELF IS MORE
OPEN- ENDED IN TERMS OF POSSIBILITIES, AS ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS DIFFER
IN THE MAGNITUDE OF CENTRAL CONUS TROUGHING AND EASTERN US
RIDGING, WITH IMPLICATIONS ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF AN OHIO
VALLEY LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH COULD PRODUCE SNOW ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE TRACK. ENSEMBLES GIVE ABOUT A 15 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF AT LEAST AN INCH OF SNOW FOR THANKSGIVING (CENTRAL MICHIGAN
BEING ON THE LOWER END OF THAT CHANCE). A SMALLER GROUP OF
SOLUTIONS, MOSTLY AMONG THE ECE, OFFER THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE
INCHES OF SNOW FROM A FARTHER NORTH LOW TRACK. A THANKSGIVING DAY
SNOWSTORM WOULD BE THE 10 PERCENT CHANCE SCENARIO AT THIS POINT.
This looks excellent
What? Below normal temps! Who would have thought?
Breaking NEWS>>>>>the latest RDB long range model still shows GR picking up 80 – 90 inches of snow the season! Get ready to rock! Who loves winter?