Wind Advisory & Snow 3/20

Yesterday was a warm spring day with a high of 73 ° ° a low of 46°. The rainfall was around .25 of an inch (I will get the official amount later this morning).  Winter returns today with much colder air than yesterday sweeping into the area behind an exiting low-pressure system. Falling temperatures this morning will become steady or slowly rise later today. Winds could gust as high as 50 mph along the lakeshore. Temperatures in the upper 30s this afternoon combined with the strong winds will keep wind chills in the 20s.

Wind Advisory

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT 
THIS AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...North winds 15 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph.

* WHERE...Mecosta, Osceola, Allegan, Ottawa, Van Buren, Lake, Mason,
  Muskegon, Newaygo, and Oceana Counties.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

Weather History

1976: A tornado outbreak strikes from Michigan to Mississippi. In Michigan, two people are killed, one each in Oakland and Macomb Counties.

On March 20, 2012, highs of 82, 84, and 83 were recorded in Detroit, Flint, and Saginaw and respectively. Each temperature tied the warmest March temperatures ever recorded at the time. However, all records would be broken in the coming days. Ultimately March 20, 2012 would be the third warmest March day ever recorded for Detroit and the second warmest for Flint and Saginaw.

Also on March 20, 1976, an F4 tornado moved through West Bloomfield in Oakland County at 7:15PM. This tornado was responsible for 1 death, 55 injuries, and over $5 million in damage. This is both the strongest and costliest tornado to ever hit Oakland County.

Also on March 20, many snowstorms have hit Southeast Michigan with greater than 6 inches over a large area of the region including in 1967, 1983, 1989, 1992, and 1996. In 1983, the Flint snowfall of 9.6 inches is the tenth heaviest snowstorm in its history.

Forecast Discussion

- Windy Morning with Rain Changing to Snow

Elongated southwest-northeast low pressure zone with multiple
low-level vorticity maxima will depart Lower Michigan during the
second half of the day, to be quickly replaced by an advancing
high pressure ridge tonight. Plummeting temperatures transported
by strong north-northwest winds this morning will support a change
from rain to snow from northwest to southeast.

One deformation zone with snow may produce minor accumulations
around Ludington early this morning (greater amounts to the
north). Another deformation zone advancing northeastward from
northern Illinois may produce a slushy half- to one-inch of
accumulation, mainly in a belt near and to the south of Holland,
Grand Rapids, and Mount Pleasant, and possibly as far southeast as
Jackson per the latest HREF probability-matched mean.

The latest HREF mean continues to indicate 40-45 mph gusts from
the north-northwest this morning, for west-central Lower MI (north
of Muskegon to Big Rapids), and near the Lake Michigan shore down
to southwest Michigan. Elsewhere, gusts 30-35 mph are favored
through mid afternoon.

Clearing of the clouds is expected late this afternoon through
tonight. 15 knot winds being maintained just above the surface
should limit the fog potential.

- Blustery Again on Friday

The progressive upper-level wave pattern continues, and winds
switch southwest on Friday with warm-air advection. There will be
a steep pressure gradient over Lower Michigan, between a ridge
from the Southeast US to eastern Great Lakes and a trough from
northern Ontario to the western Great Lakes. HREF mean indicates
another potential for 40-45 mph gusts from late Fri morning to
late afternoon in West Michigan, strongest within several miles of
Lake Michigan near and north of Holland toward Ludington.

- Rain or Snow Sunday-Monday with Possible Accumulations

Another deepening wave of low pressure, this time tracking from
the northern Plains toward Michigan, will approach later Sunday
into Monday. The mean of the ensembles takes the low`s track
through Northern Michigan, leaving the southern half of Michigan
most probably too warm for snow until early Monday. Precipitation
is likely regardless of the precip-type sensitivity to the low`s
track. There is a median solution of 1 to 2 inches of snow in
Central Michigan, though the spread in possible amounts ranges
from virtually no snow to several inches. Confidence in snow
totals is fairly low at this time, but a snowy Sunday night to
Monday morning is possible, more likely the farther north you go
in Lower Michigan.

Your Local Forecast