What is Normal Anyway????

This is a little tongue and cheek humor on the question of normalcy, puns are intended, no offense is intended…

We have all heard the terminology of the ‘new normal’ and I wonder as we go through the decades what normal means anymore.  I have been around for (cough) over six decades and have seen weather change so frequently I often wondered how anyone could base any long range forecast as normal, near normal or abnormal.

Yes we have analog data which goes back some 130 years, we also have equipment placed in areas which could be skewed to read temperatures high or low.  What might be normal this year may be abnormal next year because what is normal has trended upwards or downwards.  If we had data which went back a few centuries we would still be faced with the question of normalcy.

Should we figure in the little ice age interval that occurred from the early 14th century through the mid-19th century, when mountain glaciers expanded at several locations, including the European Alps, New Zealand, Alaska, and the southern Andes, and mean annual temperatures across the Northern Hemisphere declined by 0.6 °C (1.1 °F) relative to the average temperature between 1000 and 2000 ce.

Then we would have to figure in the medieval warm period from 900 to 1300 ce when temperatures were +.30° relative to average.

Normal is conforming to a standard; usual, typical, or expected.  Using this terminology in the case of the weather may have to be reanalyzed as there is nothing which is usual, typical or standard especially in Michigan.

Should we go back to the Cretaceous period to get a better base for weather data?  Any data the dinosaurs and pterosaurs kept are lost as no data is written in the fossil record.  They were to busy trying to not be eaten. We can try to guess which is about as good as what our long range computer models do.

So, with this in mind my head is spinning and a beverage is needed, but that is alright because as normalcy goes I would fit into the abnormal category by today’s standards because normal people don’t study meteorology statistically because stats lie or can be skewed to what ever we want them to say.  Computer models are only as good as the people who program them and write the algorithms by which they function.

This said, weather is an amazing creature which lives above us tempting us with her womanly charms to try to guess what she is going to do next.  We are amazed and often dumb founded in what she presents us, there is no changing her and it won’t be right to do so anyway.  This is why Slim and I call the long range outlooks guesses.

Below are the CPC guesses for the next 2 weeks.  This would put temperatures in the 50’s or it could mean warmer nights above freezing or it could mean it will change tomorrow to consider a new normal of orange is the new blue…..

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…and don’t get me going about what is normal in society anymore – having grown up in the age of rock and roll, hippies and flower power I have seen new normals pop up in every generation – of course I have been the rebel and have been myself so I guess I will consider myself abnormal but, this is for another rant, not weather related…

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The main weather topic for today is the snow coming to north of Cadillac and the U.P. where we have winter storm warnings and advisories.

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