As if we haven’t had enough rain this spring more is on the way. Our western states are bracing for more snow with blizzard and winter storm warnings. For us, steady rain with thunderstorms can be expected tonight. Stronger storms with high winds are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday. Below are the three-day SPC outlooks:
GRR Forecast
4 3 grrLansing Forecast
4 3 lanKZO Forecast
4 3 kzoForecast Discussion
- Showers late today/tonight - A consensus of latest higher res model guidance and CAMs suggests that rain showers will develop mid to late this afternoon and tonight to the north of a west to east oriented quasi stationary frontal boundary across IL/IN/OH. We cannot rule out potential for an isolated storm over our southern fcst area but overall convective potential tonight looks quite low due to lack of sfc/elevated instability. Some steady light to moderate rainfall is expected however. There is pretty good guidance consensus in potential for a half to three quarters of an inch of rainfall with locally higher amounts near an inch or more possible as suggested by the HREF 24 hour LPMM product. - Severe weather potential Tuesday night/Wednesday - A Colorado low will move ne to MN by 12Z Wed and cause a warm front to lift north through our area Tuesday night. The warm front and nose of a vigorous 50-60 kt llj will focus development of rain and convection across our area. There is potential for hail with elevated convection. Isolated damaging wind gusts also seem possible given an increasingly favorable kinematic environment overnight once the warm front moves north. The approaching cold front will focus redevelopment of convection Wednesday. It is noted that overall guidance trends are at least 3 hours slower with cold frontal progression eastward Wed. This is potentially significant in that the atmosphere will potentially have more time/a better chance to destabilize prior to fropa after the overnight rounds of rain/convection. Both wind and hail threats are in play Wednesday given favorable kinematics and forcing from the cold front. There is also potential for at least 1000 j/kg of sb cape to develop ahead of the front. This is not strong instability but would be more than sufficient for severe wx to occur given favorable lift moisture and deep layer shear. It is also possible though that extensive morning cloud cover and rain could keep the atmosphere rather worked over thus mitigating the svr wx threat.
Someone correct me if I’m wrong but I think it’s rare for the SPC to update a risk area on Day 3? They usually update day 1 and 2 a couple times but usually never day 3. All of West Mi is in a slight risk and I could see that going higher.
DDDDDDD……DDDDDD Blowtorch Warning!! Prepare now!! How could this be with all the cold weather hype over the past few months???
Looks good to me! I’m looking forward to mid-spring weather
Winter was declared dead back at the end of February and early March and we ended up almost 16” above average and the 4th snowiest March.
And yet only 2 days the past 8 weeks with more than 2” of snow on the ground.
Yep, been like that all winter. Doesn’t change the facts.
Rock on Kyle! Some people ignore the facts! Incredible!
No, they declared winter was dead in the beginning of February! Then every week from that point on they declared it was dead and we kept getting huge snowstorms! They could not have been more wrong! This was a great long, snowy record breaking winter! It was awesome skiing!
Such a mild weak winter!
Wow, do you see that bright red CPC today? I love short winters and long summers!
I thought we were supposed to get snow til June?!?!? No wonder someone had been MIA today!
I didn’t think the rain was supposed to move in as early as it did today. Bummer!!!
Well today is my birthday. On April 3rd you can get anything from an F5 tornado to snow. It’s the one of everything time of year.
Happy Birthday!!!
Wow the cold lakes keep the severe away looks like a repeat of the same area going to get nailed again … INDY
A mild morning in what looks to be a mild week overall.
Wow that moderate risk in the Day 2 outlook overlaps last week’s high risk in some areas. Yikes!
It looks like it should be warner with this round of storms then the last round. Today is the anniversary of the 1956 tornado here in Grand Rapids.
https://www.weather.gov/grr/1956TornadoOutbreakVrieslandTrufant
The next 5 days look to be wet and mild with a cool down for Thursday and Friday. It looks like we will see our 1st 60° day and there is a chance we could also see our 1st 70° day of 2023.
Slim
The official H/L yesterday at GRR was 49/24 There was no rain/snow fall and there was 60% of possible sunshine. The overnight low here in MBY was a mild 43 and it is now up to 46 here and 48 at GRR. For today the average H/L is 52/33 the record high of 80 was set in 1999 and the record low of 10 was set in 1965. The record snow fall of 6.0” fell in 1926. Last year the H/L was 49/33.
Slim