Yesterday was mostly sunny with a temperature of 57° – the morning low was 27°. We will start the day with mostly cloudy skies with rain developing around sunset (around 5:35), earlier for areas north of Grand Rapids. We are looking at on and off rains through election day with the heaviest around Ludington to the north.
Day 1 – 3 Excessive Rainfall
Day One Through Three QPF
Weather History
1966: A record early-season snowstorm drops 6 to 12 inches of snow across southwest Lower Michigan.
1990: Heavy fog resulted in a fatal aircraft accident near Shelby, Michigan. A private plane trying to land at the local airport in the fog stalled and crashed, killing the pilot.
On November 3, 1951, an early cold snap on the 2nd through the 6th brought several record lows to southeast Michigan. Detroit had 22 degrees on the 2nd and 16 degrees on the 3rd. Flint had 20 degrees on the 2nd, 12 degrees on the 3rd, 14 degrees on the 5th, 13 degrees on the 6th and Saginaw had 18 degrees on the 2nd, 12 degrees on the 3rd, 16 degrees on the 4th, 12 degrees on the 5th and 14 degrees on the 6th.
NWS Forecast
Today
A slight chance of showers between 4 pm and 5 pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 62. Southeast wind 7 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. The chance of precipitation is 20%.
Tonight
Showers are likely, with thunderstorms also possible after 4 am. Cloudy, with a low of around 54. South wind 10 to 14 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. The chance of precipitation is 60%—new rainfall amounts between a tenth and a quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Monday
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 67. South wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. The chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Monday Night
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 10 pm, then showers between 10 pm and 1 am, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 1 am. Low around 60. South wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. The chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and a quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tuesday
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 69. Breezy, with a south wind of 17 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. The chance of precipitation is 90%.
Tuesday Night
Showers before 1 am. Low around 46. The chance of precipitation is 80%.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 59.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low of around 37.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 59.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 38.
Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 58.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low of around 38.
Saturday
A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 57.
Forecast Discussion
- Turning Wet and Breezy Tonight and Monday A mainly quiet Sunday is expected before some showers arrive late this evening into tonight as low level warm air advection and highly anomalous precipitable water values for early November arrive. Speaking of the PWATs, the 00z ECMWF guidance is indicating values reaching over 300% of normal for Monday. PWATs of 1.50"-1.75" are expected, so the showers will be heavier than what normally occur for early November. Even so, given the Moderate Drought (D1) over most of the area right now, soils will have little to no problem absorbing the incoming rain. Mainly showers are expected but a few embedded thunderstorms can`t be ruled out. Rainfall amounts through Monday evening are likely to be 0.75"-1.25" along and north of a South Haven to Grand Rapids to Alma line. Much less is expected south of there as the rainfall gradient looks to be sharp. Jackson, for example, may get less than a tenth of an inch through Monday evening. As for the winds, there will be a strong LLJ overhead though mixing heights on Monday will likely be 1000-1500 ft or less. Winds around that layer look to be 30-35 mph. So, it will be breezy but not too out of hand. - Occasional Rain and Windy for Tuesday The main mid to upper level wave will be lifting northeastward through the Great Lakes Region on Tuesday. While this system will be losing amplitude as it crosses the CWA, it won`t take much lift to generate areas of rain given the very moist atmosphere that will be in place. Enhancing the rain will be a 40 to 50 knot 925 mb low level jet. This feature produces the strongest low level convergence over northwest parts of the CWA. It will also pull up abundant moisture from the Gulf. Record daily and possibly monthly PWAT values are shown by some models for Tuesday. Weak elevated instability will be around so a few storms are possible. If the heavy rain repeats over the same region, then locally excessive amounts could occur. Northwest parts of the CWA is the region most likely to see the most persistent heavier showers. That low level jet will also generate gusty wind conditions. Any heavier shower could bring down some of those high wind gusts. Even outside of any showers, the mixing heights are shown to reach into the 30 to 40 mph winds, so overall, Tuesday is looking like a windy day. Ensemble 6hr max wind gusts support such winds for the region with the lakeshore locations at risk for 40 to 50 mph values.
Welcome to “wintertime” that is if you changed your clocks. The official H/L yesterday was 55/28 there was no rainfall the sun was out 94% of the time. The peak wind was just 10MPH out of the S. For today the average H/L is 53/37 the record high of 76 was in 1938 and 2015 the coldest high of 23 was set in 1991. The record low of 17 was set in 1951 the warmest low of 59 was set in 1938. The most rainfall of 2.17” fell in 1935. The most snowfall is 10.4” in 1991 the most on… Read more »