Yesterday we had a high of 81° and a low of 69°. We had .63 of an inch of rain from morning storms.
We have widespread rain moving into the area this morning along with some thunder and lightning with the heaviest rain expected in the 6 am-12 pm time frame. Some areas will receive 1″-2″ today, locally higher.
NWS Outlook
Showers and thunderstorms will spread over the region this morning into the early afternoon hours. Locally gusty winds are possible, but more likely will be areas of 1″-2″ of rain, with some amounts over 2″ possible. Some localized street and poor drainage flooding may occur, especially in the 6 am-12 pm time frame. Some extra time may be needed for the morning commute.
WPC Forecast
Excessive Rainfall
Rainfall Forecast
QPF Forecast
Weather History
1918: Southwest Lower Michigan was in the grip of an extreme heat wave. Both Grand Rapids and Lansing set their highest temperature on record for the month of August at 102 degrees. At Lansing, it also ties the record for their all-time highest temperature.
1955: A tornado injured one person in Hastings and another tornado caused minor damage near Norvell in Jackson County.
1998: A small tornado downed trees and did minor damage to an outbuilding at Hamilton in Allegan County.
On August 6, 1918, the temperature soared to 104 degrees in Detroit while Saginaw recorded 103. Both are the record maximum temperatures for the month of August.
Forecast Discussion
- Showers and Storms Likely Today Scattered showers and storms are ongoing this morning with more widespread activity arriving in the next few hours as a decaying squall line exits Wisconsin fed by the low level jet. The primary concern is locally heavy rainfall. PWAT values of 1.5-2 inches this morning and enhanced forcing from a mid-level FGEN axis are the meteorological drivers. Currently the heaviest rainfall is forecast south of M20. Widespread rainfall of 1-2 inches is expected with locally higher amounts possible in training storms or areas of better rainfall efficiency. The HREF LPMM supports this with isolated pockets of 3+ inches across the CWA. In terms of flooding, rivers should remain below flood stage though a few more responsive streams may make a run at action stage. Overall, lower soil moisture content suggests areal flooding will not be widespread. However localized flooding is possible and flood advisories may be needed for areas with the heaviest rainfall, especially in our urban areas. A low threat of gusty winds exists given high PWATs and deep layer shear of 30+ knots. Main concern is near to shortly after sunrise as the low-level inversion around 2kft weakens, mainly near I94 where around 1000 joules of CAPE builds in. Overall the threat is low given the elevated nature of any storms, but not zero so we`ll be watching these storms as they move through. Rain chances slowly diminish after 18z Tuesday and dry conditions are expected for Wednesday as high pressure moves into the area. - Dry Weather Favored Wednesday through Friday Still favoring a dry forecast for the mid to late week period. Dry northeastly low level flow will be in place Wednesday into Thursday. Highs in the upper 70s are expected along with low humidity. Medium range guidance is pushing a cold front through the region Thursday night into Friday, though temperatures won`t immediately feel much cooler yet. Currently NBM POPs are only about 10% with this front, so will keep mention of rain out of the forecast for now. - Scattered Showers Possible Over the Weekend Will introduce some scattered showers into the forecast for the weekend, mainly from I-96 to the north. ECE/GEFS ensemble mean 500 mb heights over the weekend show deep upper troughing along with cooler than average 850 mb temperatures as low as 8C. ECE probability for 0.01" or more, a good proxy for measurable rain, is higher than one would expect at 60-90% for areas along and west of US 131 (and north of I-96) Saturday into Sunday. The 24hr QPF chiclet chart for LDM shows the vast majority of members producing light showers. While not a washout, the likelihood for some scattered rain showers in a cold air advection regime seems to be going up a bit for the weekend period. NBM POPs are 20-30% at this time, which seems reasonable, though higher POPs may eventually be introduced as medium range guidance clarifies the depth of upper troughing. Highs will likely max out in the 70-75 range, possibly upper 60s along the lakeshore.
Windows open for the next week. Highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. Humidity is outta here. Perfect weather IMO.
Mid 60’s outside feels like Fall love it!! INDY
I got 1.6” of rain at my house from this event. The last event was 0.3” so 1.9” all together. Incredible!
1.27 here (event total)
Is it monsoon season? Today is the kind of day I wish I had a rain gauge. It’s coming down in buckets and there is lots of standing water on the golf course.
Rain 😉
TORNADO WATCH 604 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS MIC023-025-027-059-075-077-091-115-149-061900- /O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0604.240806T1205Z-240806T1900Z/ MI . MICHIGAN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRANCH CALHOUN CASS HILLSDALE JACKSON KALAMAZOO LENAWEE MONROE ST. JOSEPH
The tornado Watch also includes extreme se allegan county including otsego and plainwell
…A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 AM EDT FOR VAN BUREN AND ALLEGAN COUNTIES… At 738 AM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 6 miles south of Saugatuck to near Watervliet, moving east at 35 mph. HAZARD…60 mph wind gusts. SOURCE…Radar indicated. IMPACT…Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees. Locations impacted include… Holland… Allegan… South Haven… Paw Paw… Wayland… Otsego… Plainwell… Hartford… Mattawan… Lawton… Bangor… Decatur… Fennville… Saugatuck… Martin… Van Buren SP… Lake Michigan Beach… Dorr… Pine Grove… Covert…
Finally some moderate rain is rolling through! First decent rainfall in weeks and weeks!
…A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 AM EDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN VAN BUREN COUNTY… At 754 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located over Decatur, or 9 miles southwest of Paw Paw, moving east at 40 mph. HAZARD…Tornado. SOURCE…Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT…Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern Van Buren County, including the following locations… Lawrence.
Here in MBY as of 7AM I have had 0.47” of total rainfall from yesterday and overnight. While there may have been some lightning I did not see any. The high for today may have already been reached here in my yard it was 71 the low so far and current reading is 61 with light rain falling.
Slim
The official H/L yesterday was 80/69 there was 0.08” of rainfall before midnight. It was a cloudy day with just 3% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is 82/62 the record high of 102 was set in 1918 the coldest high of 65 was set in 2023 the record low of 46 was set in 1948 and 1914 the warmest low of 75 was set in 1918 and 1916. The record rainfall of 1.40” fell in 1993.
Slim
It looks like another overblown event!pathetic!