We had .31 inches of rain overnight, bringing us to 1.91 inches for the month. Yesterday’s high was 86° and the low was 63°.
A very summerlike pattern will continue today and Monday. High temperatures will approach 90 degrees with humid conditions. Heat Indices will be near 100°. The heat and humidity will fuel rounds of showers and thunderstorms through Monday Night, some of which could be strong or severe with damaging winds.
SPC Outlook
Day One
Day Two
Air Quality Advisory
The Air Quality Advisory is in effect for the following Michigan counties: In West Michigan: Allegan, Berrien, Kent, Ottawa, Muskegon, Van Buren Ample sunlight in the afternoon along with heat and favorable winds will allow for Ozone to develop beyond the USG AQI range. It is recommended that, when possible, you avoid strenuous outdoor activities, especially those with respiratory diseases such as asthma.
NWS Forecast
Today
Showers and thunderstorms are likely before 5 pm, then there is a slight chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 89. Heat index values as high as 99. Southwest wind 9 to 13 mph. The chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and a quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tonight
A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 7 pm. Increasing clouds, with a low around 69. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph. The chance of precipitation is 40%.
Monday
A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2 pm. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 91. Heat index values as high as 99. West southwest wind 6 to 11 mph. The chance of precipitation is 40%.
Monday Night
Showers and thunderstorms are likely, mainly after 8 pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 70. Southwest wind 6 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. The chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between three-quarters and one inch possible.
Tuesday
A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. West southwest wind 6 to 9 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Tuesday Night
A chance of thunderstorms before 8 pm. Partly cloudy, with a low around 60. The chance of precipitation is 30%.
Wednesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 78.
Wednesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 54.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 76.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low of around 53.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 80.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 55.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 81.
Weather History
1950: Cold air filters into Michigan, setting record lows of 45 degrees at Grand Rapids and 41 degrees at Muskegon.
1974: Several tornadoes struck Lower Michigan during the afternoon, causing some structural damage but no injuries. In Mecosta County, a house and some farm buildings were damaged about four miles east of Sylvester. Apartment buildings were damaged near Plymouth, in Wayne County. Seven houses were destroyed and 50 damaged near Davison in Genesee County.
1995: An intense three-day heat wave claims hundreds of lives across the Midwest, mostly elderly people in the greater Chicago area. The low temperature of 81 degrees at Grand Rapids on this day is the warmest low temperature ever recorded there. Temperatures in the upper 90s in the afternoon combined with high humidity to produce heat index readings near 120 degrees, some of the highest ever recorded.
On July 14, 2000, parts of the north and west suburbs of Detroit received golf to tennis ball size hail with a severe storm that pushed through.
Also on July 14, 1992, Detroit had a high temperature of 83 degrees. This is about the average high temperature for mid-July, but it was the warmest day in Detroit in July of 1992, the second coldest July on record and part of the “Cold Summer of 1992”.
Forecast Discussion
- Showers and storms through this morning We are starting out this morning with a MCS that is steadily weakening as it moves through the area. The line of storms had gusts to 30-35 mph as it moved onshore, and has only weakened to just mainly showers and embedded storms as of 330 am this morning. The most impressive aspect of this is the MCV that is well defined over Muskegon and Newaygo counties. Thankfully there are no known impacts with this like a wake low wind event, or anything else. This whole complex will continue to weaken as it does not have deep and rich moisture available ahead of it. The next feature we are watching is the thunderstorm complex near the MN and WI border as of 330 am this morning. This complex has developed at the nose of a weak secondary low level jet feature behind the first complex from earlier. Lots of instability out there, and it doesn`t take much to fire something off. The expectation with this is that we will likely see showers and storms for at least the western half of the CWFA by mid-morning. After that, it will likely weaken and shift south and east by late this afternoon. Severe weather possibilities with this next complex look fairly low. Anything that is a bit stronger will likely stay west of the area as it follows the axis of the best instability gradient. One thing that we will watch is for the possibility of training storms that could lead to some minor flooding. We have a very moist air mass in place, and rainfall will be fairly efficient. It does seem that once the second batch moves through, the threat for organized convection for tonight and early Monday will be quite limited. A few storms could form for southern areas that might not experience the storms later this morning, and with some untapped instability would be present. This would most likely happen in the late afternoon and evening hours. Then being in between features and during the min in instability overnight, most areas would be rather quiet and just warm and humid. - Severe weather possible late Monday and Monday evening The quiet weather will linger into the first portion of Monday, before things could get quite active Monday afternoon and evening. The lack of activity Monday morning will allow for the atmsophere to destabilize well with at least some sunshine, and the warm and humid air mass remaining in place. Temperatures are forecast to warm to around 90 and dew points will be in the low to mid 70s. This will drive heat indices up to the upper 90s across the south, and slightly cooler further north. Right now with our expected temps and dew points, we think we will be just short of Heat Advisory criteria, and will hold off for now. We will see a couple of short waves approach later on Monday, and an associated cold front that will be poised to push through a bit later. Forecast CAPE`s are expected to increase to almost 4,000 J/kg by early Monday evening. The atmosphere will be mainly capped for much of the day. The short waves and cold front will likely provide enough forcing to go along with some weakening of the cap to fire convection. Once convection does fire, severe weather is very plausible across the entire area, with all hazards in play. Deep layer shear values are forecast to be around 40 knots. We will have a fairly strong low level jet pushing in that will provide for plenty of low level shear. The degree of instability, thick CAPE profiles aloft, and mid level lapse rates 6.5 to 7.5C/km will all bring the large hail threat. The wind threat will develop as the storms develop their cold pool and 40-50 knots in the mid levels help out. A tornado threat will also exist due to the strong low level shear with the low level jet. SRH`s are forecast to increase to 200 by 00z Tue, with 0-1km shear values of 25-30 knots, and 0-3km values of 35 knots. The hodograph has some nice curvature in the lowest levels with the directional and magnitude shear in the lower levels. This will linger through the evening, until the front can pass south of the area overnight. Any training of these storms in this high moisture environment could also cause some flooding. - A few showers and storms still possible Tue and Wed A shower and tstm risk may still exist on Tuesday, mainly south and east of GRR, before the cold front completely clears the area. Cooler and drier air arrives behind the cold front for Wednesday but the upper trough will be digging in with a decent shortwave arriving at peak heating. That will support another chance of showers and storms, although relatively limited coverage expected and mostly favoring the Mt Pleasant and Clare areas. - Dry and pleasant weather Thursday through Sunday The Thursday through Sunday period is looking dry with comfortable temperatures and humidity levels as a sprawling area of high pressure impacts the region. Mostly sunny days and clear nights expected with highs near 80 and lows in the 50s.
Best thunderstorm of the season. And I don’t like storms. It is raining buckets and non stop lightning.
Plenty of flashes to the South. Nice night for watching…
please keep in mind this is a weather blog…
Yes and Andy cannot help himself! He constantly tries to bring politics and his far right views!
Yep an Rocky is constantly trolling with his far left agenda!
Too funny, lately you are the only person on here that talks and brings up politics! You are obsessed!
The overnight low so far here in MBY was 70 and there was 0.04” of rainfall. At the current time there is some light rain falling and it is still 70.
Slim
The official H/L yesterday was 86/63 there was no rainfall before midnight. The sun was out 70% of the possible time. For today the average H/L is 83/63 the record high of 102 was set in 1936 the coldest high of 65 was set in 1990. The record low of 45 was set in 1950 and the warmest low was a very warm 81 in 1995. The most rainfall of 1.22” fell in 1970. Last year the H/L was 84/59.
Slim