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Welcome to October

September ended up warm and drier than normal.  We had 15 days of 80° or better nearly twice the normal for September.  Yesterday we reached 80° after a morning low of 57°.  Our rainfall total was 1.82 inches for the month around two inches below normal.

There is a 30% of showers between noon and two today, maybe a tenth of an inch or so.  Skies will gradually clear this afternoon with a high temperature in the mid-60s.


Weather History

1897: Temperatures reach record highs, with Lansing and Grand Rapids hitting 89 degrees. It is the highest temperature ever recorded in October at Grand Rapids.

1974: Cloudy and cold weather prevails, with high temperatures in the 40s and snowflakes observed in Muskegon.

On October 1, 1974, the earliest snow was observed with a trace of snowfall in Detroit.


NWS Forecast

Today
A 30 percent chance of showers between noon and 2 pm. Cloudy, then gradual clearing during the afternoon, with a high near 67. Light and variable wind becoming north-northwest at 9 to 14 mph in the morning.
Tonight
Mostly clear, with a low of around 43. North northwest wind 5 to 8 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 67. Calm wind becoming southwest at 5 to 8 mph in the morning.
Wednesday Night
Clear, with a low of around 47. South southwest wind 3 to 5 mph.
Thursday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. West southwest wind 5 to 7 mph.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 47.
Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 71.
Friday Night
Clear, with a low of around 43.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 72.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low of around 51.
Sunday
A chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 74.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low of around 48.
Monday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 65.

Forecast Discussion

 Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms Today

Cloudy skies  over southern lower Michigan which will provide
stability this morning out ahead of an approaching front. The
forecast seems on track with a cold front moving southeastward
across the region this afternoon. Anomalous PWATS of 1 to 1.25
inches are present ahead of the incoming front. However the drier
air over the area will keep QPF from any showers or storms low.
 Latest HREF has CAPE values only upwards of 500 J/kg along and
east of the US 127 corridor. While there is weak shear aloft, the
area west of US 127 is fairly stable and thus only showers are
expected. The cold front will bring convection through early
afternoon with thunderstorms possible along and east of the US 127
corridor. Skies will clear out quickly behind the front with fair
and mild weather tonight into tomorrow as high pressure in the
mid to low level builds over the region.


- Mostly Dry Weather through next Weekend

The mostly dry pattern continues this week, Model guidance is in
fair agreement for a couple chances for rain late this week into
next weekend. These will occur with frontal passages on Friday
morning and again late Saturday into Sunday. The weekend front will
have deeper moisture to work with across the northern forecast area
so POPs are shaded higher there. Some elevated instability could
result in some thunderstorms as well.
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Mookie
Mookie

It’s still summer! Exactly why I say Michigan has some of the best weather in the country from May to Mid October.

Slim

Welcome to October. Looking back at September 2024 it was a very warm month. It was the warmest on record at Sault Ste Marie with a mean of 64.0 they have been keeping records at the Sault since 1888. It was the 2nd warmest at Muskegon and Marquette, 5th warmest at Saginaw, 6 warmest at Alpena 9th warmest at Grand Rapids and the 10th warmest at Lansing. Detroit, Flint and Houghton Lake were further down the list.
Slim

Slim

September at Grand Rapids had a mean of 66.9 that is good for the 9th warmest on record. The high for the month was 88 on the 15th 16th and 21st the low for the month was 41 on the 8th there were 15 days of 80 or better and 28 days of 70 or better. There was just 1.32” of rainfall there was just 1.04” here in MBY. At Lansing it was the 10th warmest September on record with a mean of 66.0 it was the 3rd driest September at Lansing with just 0.65” of total rainfall.
Slim