Yesterday we closed out the month of October with the high temperature occurring in the morning at 70° and the low of 49°. We had .10 of an inch of rain which gave us 1.81 inches for the month and 3.65 inches since September 1st which is about half our normal rainfall for this period.
We may see some lake-effect rain showers today, but they will clear out, and the skies will become partly cloudy by this afternoon. Temperatures will rise to the low 50s and we will see clear skies tonight with temperatures falling to the low 30s. Our next chance of rain will come Sunday and last through Tuesday night.
Weather History
1950: Warm weather starts the month with temperatures around 80 degrees across Lower Michigan. Lansing sets their record high for November at 81 degrees.
1976: Cold weather will rule this month across Lower Michigan. Grand Rapids sets a record low of 21 degrees to start the coldest November on record there.
On November 1, 1950, the temperature rose to 81 degrees in Detroit, 79 in Flint, and 80 in Saginaw. All three cities recorded their maximum temperatures for the month of November. The Flint record would later be broken in 2015.
NWS Forecast
Forecast Discussion
- Cooler with Lake Enhanced Rain Today As the center of the lower pressure system continues to pass northeast, northwest return flow regime takes hold over West Michigan. Lake Michigan water temps sit around +14C while 850mb temps fall to -2C to -7C. This will support delta T`s in the mid to upper teens across the northern half of the Lake Michigan. Not expecting a soaking rain, but can expect a few hundredths with persistent cloud cover through the morning. - Dry and Seasonable Saturday High pressure moves over Lower Michigan this afternoon and evening cutting off lake enhanced showers. Skies gradually clear into the afternoon and evening, and efficient radiation cooling helps overnight temps fall into the 20s to low 30s into Saturday morning. Dry weather persists into Saturday with sunny skies and seasonable temps in the 50s as the ridge axis moves overhead. - Wet Period Sunday through Tuesday Gulf moisture streams in from the southwest Saturday night as a low level jet noses in. The arrival of this moisture will generate some showers later Saturday night which will become widespread as PWAT`s climb up to around 1.5 inches during the day on Sunday. This moist axis then persists into Tuesday, when it is advertised by the models to start shifting east of the region. A deep mid level trough over the western U.S. on Sunday, shifts slowly east with time, squeezing the moisture out of this anomalously moist airmass. Periods of rain, heavy at times, can be expected. We will maintain the high POP`s through this period as a result. Elevated instability arrives Sunday night and that is when I`ll introduce a risk for thunderstorms. The risk for storms will then persist into Tuesday as the instability axis remains over the area. Mean total qpf plumes for Grand Rapids from the available ensemble guidance shows 1.5 to 2.5 inches in this period. - Another Windy Day Tuesday Ensemble mean winds Tuesday for GRR from the GFS show wind gusts up around 40 mph once again. The ECMWF is around 35 mph. There`s an impressive 50 to 60 knot 850 mb low level jet over the region then so how deep we mix will ultimately determine how gusty the winds will be. For now we will nudge the gusts up for that day to reflect a higher likelihood for stronger wind gusts.
Welcome to November. The summery for October 2024 at Grand Rapids the mean for the month was 54.4° that is a departure of +3.4. The high for the month was 79 on the 11th 29th and 30th new record highs were set on the 29th and 30th the low for the month was 29 on the 27th a new record warmest low of 65 was set on the 30th. There were 12 days with highs of 70 or better. There was 1.28” of rainfall that is a departure of -2.74” there was no snowfall.
Slim
The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 70/47 it was the 9th warmest Halloween and the warmest since 1979. there was 0.02” of rainfall the highest wind was 46 MPH out of the W. There was just 2% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is 57/37 the record high of 81 was set in 1950 the record low of 21 was set in 1976. The most rainfall of 1.24” fell in 1982 the most snowfall of 4.0” fell in 1912.
Slim