Welcome to November

 

Welcome to November

Before we look at some November averages and history first here is a wrap on October 2018. This past October was a wet one here in Grand Rapids with 5.69” of rain falling (there was a trace of snow on both the 19^th and 20^th) The mean temperature was50.4° that was a departure of -0.6° this was the 1^st month of below average mean temperature since April. The High for the month was 84° on October 9^th that was a record high for that date. The low for the month was 27° on the 18^th  October 2018 will go down as a month with a warm 1^st half and a cool 2^nd half as October 14^th was the last day Grand Rapids seen a high of 60 or better.

We are now in the month of November. During this month the average high/low starts out at 54/37 and ends the month at 40/28° Grand Rapids will lose 1 hour and 1 minute going from 10 hours 18 minutes on the 1st to 9 hours 17 minutes on the 30th The average November will see 3.51” of rain fall. The wettest was 7.90” in 2003 and the driest was 1904 when only 0.4” was reported. The average snow fall is 6.8” the most snow fell in 2014 when 31.0” fell in 1906 and 1907 no snow fall was reported. The average mean temperature is 40.1° the record high was 81° on November 1st 1950 and believe it or not the record low was -10° on November 25th 1950 it looks like just before midnight the low reached -9 on the 24th It can and has gotten into the 70’s in November (I mention this just in case we do get into the 70’s and we know how Mookie will react to that if it happens) over the years it has gotten 70 or better in 36 Novembers. The most days over 70 are 4 in both 2005 and 2015 and in 2016 it reached 70 or better 2 times. And the odds of it reaching 60 or better are very good as only 9 years since 1894 has it not gotten to at least 60. In fact in 1975 14 days reached 60 or better in November and in 2012 the number was 12. The last time no days reached 60 or better was in 1997. Last year only 1 day reached 60 or better at Grand Rapids. Now for some top 10
The warmest mean temperature for November at Grand Rapids
1. 1931 47.6°
2. 2001 46.8
3. 2005 45.5
4. 2016 45.4
5. 1975 44.7
6. 1909 44.4
7. 1934 44.2
8. 2009 44.1
9. 1963 44.1
10. 1902 43.9
The coldest mean temperature for November at Grand Rapids
1. 1951 31.0°
2. 1976 31.4
3. 1995 32.0
4. 1996 33.2
5. 1959 33.5
6. 2014 34.3
7. 1950 34.4
8. 1967 34.5
9. 1898 34.7
10. 1986 350
The top 10 snowiest Novembers for Grand Rapids
1. 2014 31.0”
2. 1951 26.9
3. 1991 25.3
4. 1995 20.8
5. 1989 19.4
6. 1950 17.5
7. 2005 17.3
8. 1940 17.3
9. 1966 16.6
10. 1959 15.3
The least snowy Novembers at Grand Rapids.
1. 1906 0
2. 1907 0
3. 2001 T
4. 1984 T
5. 1948 T
6. 1946 T
7. 1931 T
8. 2010 0.1
9. 1999 0.1
10. 1927 0.1

 

At this time it looks like we are heading towards a possible weak western/central based El Nino. And as there seems to be a lot of concern as to what kind of snow fall we will see this winter I thought it would be interesting to see how much snow Grand Rapids received in past weak El Nino’s the list does not separate the western/central form the central/eastern one but here is a list of past weak El Nino’s and the November snow fall leading up to that winter.  Note that in at least 3 of the of the winters November snow fall was a large part of that winters total snow fall. Here is the list with the season, the November snow fall, Novembers mean temperature and the total snowfall for that winter season.

1952/53 November snow fall 6.4” November mean temperature 42.3° season total snow fall 42.3”
1953/54 November snow fall 7.4” November mean temperature 39.9° Season total snow fall 78.3”

1958/59 November snow fall 8.6” November mean temperature 40.6° Season total snow fall 104.7”

1969/70 November snow fall 14.3” November mean temperature 33.5° Season total snow fall 84.4”

1976/77 November snow fall 8.5” November mean temperature 31.4° Season total snow fall 70.8”

1977/78 November snow fall 10.6” November mean temperature 39.5° Season total snow fall 84.6”

1979/80 November snow fall 9.4” November mean temperature 40.5° Season total snow fall 48.8”

2004/05 November snow fall 10.3” November mean temperature 40.5° Season total snow fall 81.7”

2006/07 November snow fall 0.3” November mean temperature 41.3° Season total snow fall 83.3”

2014/15 November snow fall 31.0” November mean temperature 34.3° season total snow fall 78.1”

There is a good chance that we will see several inches of snow this month if the past is any indication.

Slim