The summer flies by and we now begin August. Sunrise today in Otsego was 06:36 and sunset tonight would be at 9:04 which gives us 14 hours and 28 minutes of daylight. Yesterday’s high was 84° and the low 58.5°.
Showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase early this morning. Some of the storms could contain gusty winds. Then for the afternoon, the central area of showers and thunderstorms are forecast to push east of Lansing and Jackson, however, a few lingering light showers could persist. Most locations will end up in the 76 to 81-degree range for high temperatures today.
-- Showers and storms through early this afternoon -- There is not really any change to the expectations for the potential showers and storms through mid-afternoon for the area. We continue to look at some lower potential that a few storms may become strong to severe toward the U.S.-127 corridor and to the east. We agree with SPC nudging the marginal risk a little to the West for today. The ongoing showers and storms have showed a slight decrease in coverage and intensity over the last couple of hours. This is evident in radar and satellite imagery with cloud tops warming a little. There is pretty good agreement that there should be a slight uptick in coverage and intensity of the showers and storms when the line comes onshore. We believe this has to do with some added heat/moisture flux coming off of the lake in the SW flow. This seems plausible with all observed water temps in the low to mid 70s. Instability will be respectable with MU CAPEs forecast to be over 1,000 J/kg as the short wave moves through. The limitation to this is that it is not totally sfc based aside from the help from Lake Michigan. Deep layer effective shear values are on the marginal side here with values of 25-30 knots. The better chance for stronger storms will be further east, where some diurnal heating could boost instability some before the short wave moves through toward 18z. The window of opportunity for severe weather for our area is kind of small. If it were to happen, some strong winds would be the most likely threat. Clouds will hang on behind the line of showers/storms, with a shower not out of the question. We will see skies gradually clearing late this afternoon, and continue through Tuesday as high pressure moves overhead. -- Heavy rain potential Wednesday into Thursday -- There is a trend for temperatures to not be as hot on Wednesday, with the threat for heavy rain increasing a little bit. The trend for not as hot temperatures is evident as rain chances with the incoming front are looking more likely to come in a little earlier in the afternoon on Wednesday. There will be plenty of heat and moisture over the area, as we will be in the warm sector by later Tuesday night. It is looking like we will not see the full potential of warming now with clouds and rain coming in a little bit earlier. This is all the case as a result of the models bringing in a short wave and associated low level jet in a little quicker. The front will be only slowly moving SE through the area, and will likely not clear the area until Thu morning. This means we could see multiple waves of showers and storms move through along the front. The low level jet does stick around near the area for a good chunk of this time, although it is not oriented perfectly with the nose of it moving east overnight. Precipitable water values of over 2 inches continue to be expected. We will need to watch for the potential of heavy rainfall, which agrees with the thinking from WPC with the area in the Excessive Rainfall Outlook for Wed/Wed night. We should see the front slowly clear the area on Thursday morning, taking most of the rain with it to our South. -- Unsettled weather possible around next Sunday -- We can`t rule out a small chance of a shower or storm from late Thu- Sat at this time. It does look like most areas should stay dry with typical summer-time temperatures during this period. The small chances of a little rain would be a result of some diurnal instability, along with some enhanced convergence near the lake breeze with an easterly flow expected. A weak ridge of high pressure aloft will become nearly stationary oriented from WSW to ENE, will limit the chances with warmer temps aloft. A better chance for rain will come in centered around the Sunday time frame. The upper ridge is pushed south a little more as the main upper ridge builds again over the Plains, and we get back under the NW flow ahead of the ridge. This scenario will push another Canadian type of cold front down into the area. At the same time, the low level flow ahead of the front looks to be tapping plenty of Gulf moisture, and interacting with the front.