Yesterday we had a high of 79.5° and the low was 61.5°. We don’t see any temps near 80 or the 70s for that matter in the near future, we may even see our first frost tonight as temps fall into the mid-30s.
-- Chance of Rain Today -- Strong winds across Lake Michigan will spur the formation of convection that will bring rain to the lakeshore with a chance of thunder. The mid level winds remain out of the north to northwest with little directional wind shear at or below 850 mb. This will allow winds to mix down to the surface, bringing gusty winds across lower Michigan. The soundings tell the story with LWA, MKG and BIV model soundings showing LCL`s around 2 to 3KFT. The moisture is all at or below 5kft with dry air aloft. So given the moisture and any fetch across the lake, there should be enough instability with low level shear to allow for showers. QPF is fairly limited so rainfall amounts will not be significant. -- Patchy frost possible Thursday night into Friday morning -- High pressure will continue to build into the midwest and over the Great Lakes region Thursday into Friday. This ridge will bring cooler and drier air into the region. The dry air aloft will keep skies clear, with the high pressure allowing for winds to be calm. The other indicator is that the dewpoints will drop below 35 degrees. So with dewpoints just above freezing, little to no wind, and clear skies, this is a good recipe for frost. Any lingering clouds and/or wind could preclude and interrupt frost formation. However, given current expected conditions, frost headlines should be needed. -- Showers this weekend into early next week -- An upper level trough will drop down into the Great lakes with the mid to long range models in fair agreement on position and timing of this feature. mid level moisture should couple with a positively tilted trough to bring an upper level jet streak through southern Michigan Saturday. This will allow for upper level divergence along with wind shear across Lake Michigan which indicates good probabilities for showers and storms Saturday night into Sunday. Northerly flow behind the trough should further spark showers and a chance of storms Sunday into early Monday. The upper level system should then trek eastward.