We have seen a lot of cold air compared to normal in the past couple weeks due to negative Arctic Oscillation (AO) and a Greenland block which pours said cold air out of Siberia through Canada and down through the eastern U.S.. When the Arctic Oscillation goes positive this will allow the cold air to rebuild generally moving it eastward through Europe.
The AO is a climate pattern characterized by winds circulating counterclockwise around the Arctic at around 55°N latitude. When the AO is in its positive phase, a ring of strong winds circulating around the North Pole acts to confine colder air across polar regions. This belt of winds becomes weaker and more distorted in the negative phase of the AO, which allows an easier southward penetration of colder, arctic air masses and increased storminess into the mid-latitudes.
The current pattern is consistent with warm air in the states west of the Rockies north to Alaska and cold air east. Southern Lower Michigan temps are generally in the mid to upper 40s this time of year. High temperatures have been in the upper 30s over the past several days with only 30.5° on the 13th. We have seen three or four inches of snow thus far in the area for the month – storms have been missing us or just clipping the area. Lake effect accumulations have been small. We usually see our best lake effect when the temps get into the 20s with west/northwest winds. Lack of moisture content in the air has also held back on accumulations.
In our current pattern of troughing and cold temperatures we will see widespread new snowfall in Siberia and parts of Central Asia and even Turkey. Across North America, troughing and cold temperatures will bring new snowfall to southern Alaska, northwestern and Eastern Canada and the Northeastern US. This pattern should continue into next week before moderating bringing us closer to normal temps around Thanksgiving.
Below are the current snow and ice maps from NOAA:
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Here are the CPC guesses for the next
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Though the computer models have been struggling with a consistent pattern they are pointing towards another cold outbreak in the beginning of December. The rate of North American snow cover advance continues at a blistering rate and remains near decadal highs. With continued cold air across Canada and the Northern US, North America snow cover will likely continue further. If snow and cold establish a foothold across Canada this fall, it could support an early start to winter across the Northern US….
There is a weak low pressure system moving up the Ohio valley this morning bringing with it ice storm warnings for Indiana and western Ohio – there are winter storm warnings and advisories from Ohio all the way to Maine where up to 8 inches of wet heavy snow may fall mixed with ice – yuck.
We will be on the western fringes of this system and will see some snow moving in after 8am in Kalamazoo and around 11am for Grand Rapids. Some areas may see around two inches of the white stuff. The rest of the week looks to be dreary and clouds with on and off chances of rain and snow showers.
Whoops…..
https://youtu.be/uPKwmpY1zHY
Tick Tock look @ Thee Clock its………………………..FRYday .
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We have a good 1+ inch of snow on the grass. Pavement areas are wet. It appears things are melting now. It is above freezing now.
Over 2 inches of sniw out at thee YARDofBRICKS who would of thought INDYDOG14!
Just returned home from Charlotte. Freeways are fine except for over/underpasses. Be careful if you venture out. Folks haven’t remembered how to drive in this stuff yet.
Let’s review some facts! We are way above normal for seasonal and monthly snowfall! We are currently in another WWA! What an incredible start to winter! This could be a fantastic WINTER! Rock n roll will never die!!!!!!!
Picked up just over a half inch of snow here. Roads are snow covered and somewhat slippery even Alpine has snow on it, The temperature here is now at 32
Slim
Winter weather advisory till 10 a.m. tomorrow morning stay tuned INDY!
With today’s snow we have 2 more chances Friday and Saturday… loving this weather! INDYDOG14!
Rest in Peace Roy Clark
https://youtu.be/GQIAcztYjbc
Loved Hee Haw when I was a kid.
He was so much more than hee haw. One heck of a guitar picker..”and Versitial Musician .
Agreed. Both he and Buck could really play
It’s been snowing pretty good here, but it’s melting as it reaches the ground
Snowing pretty good here too but melting also .. INDYDOG14!
Same here snow has been falling but only a trace on the grass, The temperature here is 32
Slim
Looking for 1-3 inches of snow today for thee YARDofBRICKS snow just keeps adding to a already above normal snowfall for November the moderation coming next week looks like temps still below normal nothing to bring a few back on the blog lol! Short term what a great start to a fantastic winter ahead! Enjoy your thirsty Thursday …. INDYDOG14!!
It is still too early to say one way or the other. But we very well could stay in this type of pattern for much of the winter. If we do then many of the storms will miss us to our south.
Slim
I love your weekly winter updates! This cold stretch has been incredible! The below normal temps from October have carried right into November! We are setting up for quite a winter!!!
Boy, we dodged a bullet. Ice Storm and Winter Storm Warnings to our south and east. I can deal with snow. Not much for ice, though.
Yeah, we are overdue for an ice storm, but luckily we continue to stay in this odd pattern where every storm seems to miss us in one direction or another. Can’t imagine anyone saying, yes, I want a ice storm.