Weekend Forecast – Weather History – 5/2

Yesterday, we reached 74° with .54 of an inch of rain. This morning, we have a chance of showers, and the skies should become partly sunny, with temperatures near 60°.  Tomorrow will feature partly sunny skies with a temperature near 60°.  Sunday rain chances move in once again with highs in the upper 50s.

Weather History

1929: A snowstorm puts down a slushy coating of 2 to 3 inches of snow across southwest Lower Michigan.

1930: Grand Rapids was struck by a tornado that moved through the factory district in the southern part of the city. Four people were injured as many buildings were unroofed. The damage totaled over a million dollars.

On May 2, 2015, this day in geologic history featured a 4.2M earthquake that was felt in several states. The epicenter was 5 miles south of the town of Galesburg in Southwest Lower Michigan. It was the 2nd strongest earthquake on record in Michigan behind a 4.6M near Kalamazoo in 1947.

On May 2, 1983, an F2 tornado hit Lenawee County between 1:35 a.m. and 1:40 a.m. Later that same morning, an F3 tornado hit Macomb County at 10:05 a.m. causing $25 million in property damage.

Forecast Discussion

- Cool through the weekend, frost north tonight possible

Water vapor imagery shows a well defined short wave moving east
across Nebraska. This wave is the southern extension of a broad
upper trough near James Bay. The general model consensus is that
the Nebraska wave will become cutoff from the parent trough and
meander around the southern Great Lakes for the next couple of
days.

A weak trough is moving across the southern cwa attm and is
producing drizzle along/south of I-96, but should be east of the
cwa by this afternoon, resulting in dry weather. We kept low chc
PoPs in the southern cwa to account for this.

The upper trough will keep cool temperatures over the region;
highs today will range from the mid 50s north to mid 60s south.
If skies can clear tonight near US-10, we may see some frost form
as temperatures could fall into the mid 30s. But, it`s possible
that the clouds hang in there. As such, we won`t issue a frost
advisory yet, but will keep an eye on it.

We`ll see some sun Saturday as the cutoff low continues to
reposition itself over the lower OH Valley. Highs in the lower 60s
are expected.

- Unsettled Sunday through Tuesday, then drier/warmer

As the cutoff low drifts east Sunday, a minor wave rotating north
from it will move over the cwa. This will result in some light
rain, especially along/south of I-96 where we`ll have likely PoPs;
QPF around a tenth of an inch expected.

Chances of rain will linger into Monday as the cutoff low drifts
north toward southern MI and then east. Models show a northern
stream wave moving across Manitoba/Ontario Monday night which may
be enough to kick the cutoff low eastward and away from the cwa
Tuesday. Once that occurs, then some ridging will build into the
region and warmer temperatures will follow with 70 possible by mid
week.