Wednesday Forecast

We have 19° at 7 am this morning.  Yesterday we warmed up to 38° with partly cloudy skies.

CPC Forecast

Forecast

SW Michigan Weather History

1920: Mild weather prevails across Lower Michigan with record highs in the upper 50s.

1973: A snowstorm drops about 8 inches of snow from Grand Rapids to Lansing.

SE Michigan Weather History

On December 13, 2017, a clipper rapidly strengthened upon approaching the area and brought significant snow accumulations. With calm winds and perfect temperatures, the environment was pristine for classic snow dendrites and efficient accumulation rates. A wide swath of 6 to 9 inches was observed along a northwest-to-southeast line from the Saginaw Valley into Detroit.

Also on December 13, 2010, additional lake effect snow fell in the wake of the previous day snowstorm across the Thumb region. Storm totals reached 15 inches at Bad Axe and an estimated 20+ inches near the Lake Huron shoreline in Huron County. Wind gusts to 50 mph were reported across the northern Thumb region and created snow drifts in excess of 10 feet in some locations. The snow and blowing snow led to Blizzard conditions over Huron and Sanilac counties, which stranded at least two dozen cars.

Also on December 13, 1878, this day marked the first day of a streak of 38 days (December 13, 1878-January 20 1879) of temperatures at or below 32 degrees in southeastern Michigan.

U.S.A and Global Events for December 13th:

December 13, 1997:

A freak cold snap and snowstorm struck parts of northern Mexico leaving 12 people dead, and the area paralyzed. It snowed in the city of Guadalajara for the first time since 1881, leaving amazed residents to gawk at the white stuff and make snowmen. The temperature plunged to 5 degrees in Chihuahua.

Forecast Discussion

- Mild Weather will continue through the work week

A strong upper level low will be moving through eastern Canada.
While there will be a deepening upper level trough moving through
the region with a strong gradient all instability will be aloft.
Expect dry air and high pressure towards the surface. High
pressure through the mid to low levels will stifle any clouds
resulting in a mix of sun and clouds with a dry forecast. While
northwesterly flow will continue the gusty winds will subside
today. Maximum temperatures will be mild and will be just above
normal today and Thursday.

- Slight chance for a few showers over the weekend

Overall the pattern does feature lower than normal confidence as
timing, strength and track differences of several weak systems
exist.

One cold front/frontal zone tries to drop down from the
northwest Friday into Friday night.  Overall  deterministic and
ensemble model trends suggest this feature and it`s associated
precipitation will stay north of the CWA.  We will lower POPs in
this period.

One mid level wave was located over the Southwest
U.S. at this time while a second wave was tracking towards the
British Columbia shoreline. Models generally show these two systems
merging over the Lower OH Valley Saturday night or Sunday. Mid to
upper level moisture streams into Southwest Lower MI during this
time with the DGZ becoming saturated.  Lift is noted in this zone as
well. However, it`s the low levels that struggle to saturate.
Commonly in these situations we struggle to get enough precipitation
to measure and generally end up with some sprinkles/light showers.
Closer to the track of these systems, South Haven does see the low
level moisture increasing but not until Sunday. Currently we have a
dry Sunday going.  Ensemble qpf trends suggest that the potential
for a few showers Sunday is on the increase.  At this point, I am
not confident enough to add showers to Sunday`s forecast but if the
qpf trends continue we might need to add a small chance to Sunday`s
forecast, especially southwest zones.