Weather History – Rain Chances 5/6

Weather History

1902: A tornado injures two people and destroys several barns east of Maple Rapids in Clinton County. Another tornado destroys several barns near Tekonsha in Calhoun County.

On May 6, 1947, in Detroit, the Rouge River crested to a height of 23 feet (with flood stage being 15 feet).

Forecast Discussion

Soaking rains will trend well east of US 131 today, with areas receiving a half to an inch of rain with lesser amounts to the west.

- Another round of rain today focused in Mid Michigan

Areas near US-127 from Alma to Jackson stand the best chance today
of seeing widespread 0.5 to 0.75 inches of rain with a potential
for some spots to get as much as 1.5 inches, per the HREF.
Rainfall rates may be enhanced by weak instability in the lower
levels of the atmosphere. Can`t rule out some rumbles of thunder
but the instability values are fairly low, around 100 J/kg, and
resulting convection confined mostly within a layer of
temperatures warmer than -10 Celsius.

Near US-131, the amount of rain expected is more in question. The
HRRR produces very little, although it lies farther east than the
other constituent models in the HREF. The mean of the HREF is
about 0.10 inch in the vicinity of US-131, but the potential
exists for over 0.25 inch among the solutions that bring the rain
farther west. There is a slight chance of an occasional shower in
communities closer to Lake Michigan, but overall it should be a
pleasant day there.

The upper-level low responsible for this unsettled weather will
slowly be kicked out from Ohio toward New York later today,
bringing diminishing chances for rain showers toward evening.

- Mostly dry pattern through the weekend, frost Thu night

Behind the upper level low, a shortwave trough will swing through
Wednesday night, bringing a brief chance for showers and maybe a
few rumbles of thunder Wed evening. Drier air quickly moves in
behind it as seen in the low to mid level moisture profiles. This
air will also be on the colder side, bringing the potential for
frost both Wednesday night in central Michigan and Thursday night
in many of the cooler spots across the whole area.

Another weaker trough passes by mainly to our north Saturday.
Moisture however is limited and with the weak front may not be
enough to sustain the development of showers and storms. Therefor
have kept Saturday dry as the previous forecast which matches with
the latest NBM precipitation probabilities.

An upper level ridge then builds over the area into next week
with dry conditions continuing with warming temperatures.