Weather History, Meteotsunamis. & Forecast 4/13

Weather History

1941: Temperatures reach the 80s across Lower Michigan. Record highs set on this date include 87 degrees at Detroit, 82 at Lansing, and 80 at Grand Rapids.

1950: High temperatures struggle to reach the mid and upper 20s across Lower Michigan after morning lows in the teens. At Lansing, the high temperature is only 24 degrees after a morning low of 17.

2018: Wind and air pressure changes from lines of thunderstorms across northern Lake Michigan generated meteotsunamis that affected the coast at Ludington and Manistee. Several docks near the mouth of the Manistee River and the Ludington pier were submerged during the height of the water rises.

They are similar to the earthquake-generated tsunamis that occur in the ocean, except they are caused by weather events, thus earning them the name “meteotsunamis.” Rapid changes in barometric pressure, often associated with fast-moving weather systems, can generate meteotsunamis. Although many meteotsunamis are too small to notice, large meteotsunamis can have devastating coastal impacts (damaging waves, flooding, strong currents) that cause significant damage, injury, and death. Meteotsunamis are frequently observed in the Great Lakes, averaging 106 events per year. Examples of destructive Great Lakes meteotsunamis include:

• In 1929, a retreating 20 foot wave pulled ten people to their deaths at in Lake Michigan at Grand Haven, MI.
• In 1954, a 10 foot wave hit Chicago and swept many fishermen off a pier, killing seven.
• In 1998, a strong meteotsunami in Lake Michigan capsized a tug boat at the White Lake, MI harbor.
• In 2003 at Sawyer, MI, seven people drowned in an incident initially attributed to rip currents, though the water level records indicated a moderate meteotsunami occurred around the time of the drownings.

Furthermore, sudden and unexpected water level drawdown due to meteotsunamis could cause dry cooling water intakes at nuclear power plants, leading to insufficient water supply and endangering human safety. Although the hazards that meteotsunamis pose the Great Lakes and U.S. oceanic coastlines has been recognized, a reliable warning system for predicting meteotsunamis has yet to be developed.

On April 13, 1977, the temperature soared to 87 degrees in Detroit, which is the record high for the day. This marked the fourth day in a row (April 10-13) that record daily highs were set, including the record high of 89 degrees on April 12, 1977, which is the record high for the entire month of April in Detroit.

Forecast Discussion

There will be several periods of scattered rain showers over the next few days, but none should be overly significant or long-lasting. Some light snow may mix in Monday Night into Tuesday. Temps climb into the 60s by Monday and fall back into the 40s on Tuesday.

- Sunday Evening Showers and Localized Gusty Winds Possible

Temperatures will be similar to yesterday, though it will be
cloudier and breezier with south winds gusting around 20 mph. Clouds
will be mid and high altitude while air below 8,000 feet remains
quite dry. Rain chances ramp up after 5 PM per the HREF as showers
based around 700 mb move in from Wisconsin (with a slight chance of
lightning/thunder as that layer may be weakly unstable). The chance
will be relatively greater to the north of I-96 into central
Michigan.

One elusive threat this evening will be a potential for gusty (and a
non-zero chance of strong/damaging) southeast winds developing on
the northern/western periphery of this area of rain. Multiple runs
of the HRRR have been persistent in developing a mesohigh underneath
the rain, coupled with a wake trough immediately to the
north/northwest, which would propagate eastward in tandem with the
batch of rain. Cooling and sinking air from the precipitating
midlevels into the drier low-levels (which will also feature steep
lapse rates in the bottom half of the dry layer) is the likely cause
of this potential mesohigh. Southeast winds would accelerate between
the mesohigh and wake trough, and this narrow area of strong
southeast winds would move eastward with time. While the HRRR is
relatively aggressive with the pressure/wind field response compared
to other CAMs within the HREF, most of the other models show a
similar signal for this effect, though differ slightly in time,
location, and magnitude. West-central to central Michigan appears to
be most favored for these gustier winds during the mid-late evening
(assuming the batch of rain moves through the area expected).

- Breezy Monday-Tuesday with Showers

A consolidating low pressure system over Lake Superior on Monday
followed by a digging shortwave and reinforcing cold front on the
back side of the low for Tuesday will create a blustery couple of
days. West wind gusts 30-40 mph are favored. Precipitation on
Monday, if any, should be fairly light, then greater chances arrive
for Tuesday morning. It may be cold enough Tuesday morning for some
wet snow to mix in.

- Warming Back Up Thursday-Friday with Thunderstorm Chance

Fairly good ensemble agreement for the synoptic pattern later in the
week featuring broad ridging from the southern US to Great Lakes
with a return of warmer air back into Michigan amid southerly low-
level flow, while troughing deepens over the western US. Instability
may be present and a shortwave trough rippling through the Midwest
may support thunderstorm development Thursday night or Friday.