Weather History – Forecast 4/29

Weather History

1899: Grand Rapids sets the record high for the month of April at 90 degrees after a balmy morning low of 70 degrees.

1909: Heavy rain mixed with snow sets records across Lower Michigan. The daily total liquid equivalent precipitation is 2.53 inches at Grand Rapids, and this includes a daily record of 2.2 inches of snow. The 1.75 inches at Lansing includes four inches of snow. Temperatures remain in the 30s all day.

A very impressive late season rain/snowstorm hit Southeast Michigan late on April 28th – 29th in 1909. The very intense low pressure system moved through the region bringing Detroit 1.99″ of rain along with 3.0″ of snow, sleet and hail from thunderstorms. Easterly winds gusted up into the 40s mph much of the 29th and then late in the evening, a strong cold front brought a northwest wind gust to 54 mph. In Saginaw, they were buried under 13.0 inches of snow.

Forecast Discussion

We have a warm 75° with rain at 6 am this morning in Otsego.  Yesterday, we reached 81° with mostly sunny skies and low humidity.

- Chance storms early in the northwest and southeast this aftn


A line of convection extending from far Eastern Upper Peninsula
across northern lower and into Wisconsin will continue to trek
eastward this morning. The line continues to weaken as the night
continues and as it moves eastward. Several factors for the
weakening include; lack of daytime heating, which correlates to a
more stable atmosphere, and entering a drier airmass. Strong low
level winds continue to stream out ahead of the approaching front.
Multiple CAMS, including the HREF and the HRRR have strong winds,
upwards of 50 mph to be possible along the lakeshore north of
Muskegon for the next few hours. However winds will weaken and
flat line after that. So precipitation remains possible, however
storms should be isolated into the counties north of Muskegon.
While strong winds, some of which could be 40 to 50 mph to be
possible until 5 AM.

 The cold frontal boundary will continue its slow slog to the east
throughout the day. Temperatures today will be a shadow of what
they were yesterday, however to could be enough to aid the front
in sparking afternoon convection. As the line reaches southern
lower this afternoon, there could be enough CAPE and shear to
allow for showers and storms. The HRRR has enough of a cap and
stable atmosphere to dampen much formation, however several other
CAMS show a narrow line forming mid afternoon through the
southeaster portion of the state.

- Frost Tonight into Wednesday morning

 In the wake of the cold front, Dry cold air will propagate over
the Great Lake region tonight into WEdnesday morning. A building
high pressure over the upper Midwest will create downsloping flow
over Michigan dropping dewpoints into the 20s. With dewpoints
that low, along with clearing skies, temperatures should drop
tonight into Wednesday morning. Latest model soundings support
this with a decoupled sfc, stronger winds aloft and calm winds at
the surface. Will wait on headline to narrow in on an area but a
frost advisory will probably be needed.

- Showers and storms to end the week.

The high pressure will be short lived as a change in the upper
level pattern will stream Gulf moisture through the region through
the latter half of the week. There is some timing issues. Some
precipitation could arrive as early as Wednesday night, however,
flow is divergent at that point and considering the dry air that
will reside over Lower Michigan, it should slow any precipitation
arrival. There remains a persistent signal of widespread showers
Thursday into early Friday.

Mid range models are starting to come into focus on trough passage
which lends more confidence on the up coming weekend, which is
looking drier but cooler.