Weather History & Forecast 4/14

1953: It is a cold morning across Lower Michigan. Record low temperatures include the 20 degrees at Muskegon and the 21 degrees at Grand Rapids.

On April 14, 2018, a mid-season Spring storm spanning April 13th-15th reached its peak. After widespread rain the night of April 13th ended as freezing rain and accumulating sleet the morning of the 14th, precipitation wound down and strong marine winds continued for the remainder of the day. Wind gusts over 50 mph were common in Saginaw Bay and the shoreline of Bay County where storm surge inundated coastal communities. Severe coastal flooding was also observed in Monroe County along the Lake Erie shoreline. Freezing rain and sleet redeveloped early on the morning of the 15th before ending as rain that afternoon. All told, Southeast Michigan had observed 2-3″ of heavy rain, 2-3″ of sleet, and 1/4″ to 1/2″ of ice from freezing rain. DTE and Consumers Energy reported power outages for nearly 500,000 customers due to the event.

In addition, the 0.6″ snow measurement, which was mostly sleet, made on the 15th tied Flint for its snowiest winter on record at 83.9″. This tied the record set just 4 winters prior in 2013-2014.

Also on April 14, 1967, Saginaw County reported an F1 tornado around 7:20 pm. Property damages were recorded at $250,000.

Forecast Discussion

Cloudy skies with chances for precipitation this morning. The front will exit late morning, early afternoon and Temps will climb into the 60s today and fall back into the 40s Tuesday. Expect gusty winds upwards of 20 to 30 mph this afternoon.

Thursday Severe Weather Outlook

- Breezy Monday-Tuesday, Turning Cooler Tuesday with Rain/Snow

West winds are expected to gust 30-35 mph today, and northwest 30-40
mph on Tuesday. Portions of western and mid Michigan which have been
relatively dry lately may have an increased fire spread danger
today. Rain showers mixing over to snow early Tuesday may accumulate
around 1 inch in the higher elevations of Central Michigan,
particularly Lake/Osceola counties and perhaps northern
Newaygo/Mecosta.

Low-pressure system over Lake Superior this morning will move east,
while an occluded front moves through our area. Cooler 925-850 mb
temperatures won`t really arrive until afternoon, so high
temperatures are still favored to poke into the 60s especially in
mid Michigan. Rain chances are low today and clouds may thin or
scatter out to partly sunny for a time this afternoon.

A second shortwave trough on the heels of the low will dig and
deepen the synoptic-scale troughing over the Great Lakes tonight,
with reinforcing cold air arriving late tonight into Tuesday. A
saturating DGZ in the midlevels and increasing low-level moisture
with broad-scale lift will support precipitation developing late
tonight into Tuesday morning. QPF in the central Michigan highlands
may reach 0.25 inches, though not all of it will fall as snow, and
any snow will tend to be wet and mostly stick to grass or elevated
surfaces.

- Warming Back Up Thursday-Friday with Thunderstorm Chances

The pattern Thursday is likely to shift back to ridging from the
southern US to Great Lakes as troughing deepens over the western US.
Warmer temperatures from the central US should be transported toward
Michigan and send our temperatures back into the 60s. Shortwave
troughs rippling out from the positively tilted mean trough over
southern Canada and the western US should support a couple rounds of
showers or thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday. The vast
majority of ensemble member models in the ENS, GEFS, and CMC produce
rain, some with totals over 1 inch. A warm front may set up over or
just south of Lower Michigan, and MUCAPE and deep-layer shear may be
present, so will have to continue to monitor the potential for
severe weather.