In my studies of atmospheric science one of the first things I learned is that atmospheric motions are unpredictable especially in long range forecasting. Not only does one have to have an understanding of physics, geography and calculus even chaos theory it still leaves us scratching our heads in dismay when things don’t pan out. We can throw our best numerical formulas out there from the greatest minds and machines with chests puffed out and heads in the air only to find ourselves humbled by what nature actually gives us.
Don’t blame the meteorologists when long range guesses don’t pan out, they are using what tools are available to them based on atmospheric flow and lift amongst a myriad of other things which the math can’t always figure into the plan. Our weather can come from eastern Europe or the Pacific with the current pattern of rotation of systems in the Arctic and North Atlantic figured in – the atmosphere is a vast current of conflicting systems which are always changing.
Beginning in the New Year I will try to give a better explanation of the study of meteorology and how things work in our atmosphere in plain language we can all understand. I have been trying to format posts in a weekly format and this will fit in nicely with our weather history and winter update posts along with Slims Saturday posts.
It has always been my intention to make this an educational site with the hopes that people will look at the posts and comment accordingly going beyond posting CPC maps and the personal beliefs of how hot or cold it is going to be – all the maps are posted elsewhere on this site – I would like to know why you believe these things are going to happen while still maintaining the fun correspondence with each other including videos and tunes to help keep things on the light side….
I hope you all had a safe and Merry Christmas even with the lack of snow. As you all know I love fine coffee and one of my gifts was an expensive commercial grade coffee maker. My wife and I would like to thank you all for the Christmas greetings and happy birthdays for my wife. I sent out an email to all of you on the blog for Christmas which hopefully didn’t go into your spam folders.
There is a large area to our west which is under winter storm warnings and advisories. We will be on the warm side of this system with mainly rain and temps in the low 50s on Friday morning before they start falling again in the afternoon. This weekend temps will drop back into the low 30s. The New Years holiday bears watching as there is the possibility of a winter storm developing though all the models are not in agreement at this time.
Weather History
December 23
1941: Lower Michigan is in the midst of a three day spell of mild weather with highs in the 50s from the 22nd to the 24th. The high temperature at Muskegon on this date is a record 54 degrees.
1989: Temperatures fall to record lows of 5 below zero at Muskegon and 11 below at Grand Rapids during the coldest December on record at both sites.
December 24
1993: A Christmas Eve snowstorm drops from 3 to 8 inches of snow across Lower Michigan and ushers in several weeks of severe winter weather.
December 25
1982: Southerly winds push temperatures into the 60s during the warmest Christmas on record for Lower Michigan. The unusual warmth is punctuated by scattered thunderstorms.
1983: Only one year after the warmest Christmas on record, southwest Lower Michigan is setting record lows with temperatures plunging below zero as a long siege of arctic air dominates the last half of the month.
2000: Lansing falls to 17 degrees below zero for their coldest Christmas on record.
December 26
1985: Muskegon sets a daily snowfall record of 14.4 inches during a long stretch of snowy weather. The monthly total for December is 57 inches.
2001: A foot of lake effect snow piles up at Grand Rapids as a week-long snow blitz drops about 4 feet of snow at Grand Rapids.
December 27
1959: Southerly winds bring mild weather with lows in the 40s and highs in the upper 50s.
1993: Temperatures plunge below zero, beginning a long stretch of arctic weather that will continue through much of January.
December 28
1982: Temperatures hit 61 degrees at Lansing, Grand Rapids and Muskegon as a spell of very mild weather continued during one of the warmest winters on record.
2000: Arctic air and deep snow cover combine to produce record low temperatures across Lower Michigan. Records include 5 below zero at Muskegon, 9 below zero at Grand Rapids and 18 below zero at Lansing.
December 29
1880: Arctic air puts Lower Michigan in the deep freeze. Lansing falls to 15 below zero after a low of 17 below zero the day before. The high temperature of 1 above zero on this day is the coldest maximum temperature on record for the month of December at Lansing.
1984: Temperatures reach record highs for the second day in a row at Grand Rapids and Lansing. Amazingly, the record high of 65 degrees at Grand Rapids is set just after midnight. A cold front moves through in the morning and temperatures fall into the 30s during the afternoon.
Ouch!! Average temps and below normal precipitation into the second week of January, not much of a pattern change, I would say LOL!! This pattern of warm and dry winters has been AWESOME!
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814prcp.new.gif
We could go well into January with below normal snowfall. Oh my.. Lol !!!!
Here is a link to a picture of 3 tons of snow.
http://www.arizonaiceman.com/FAQRetrieve.aspx?ID=37309
Slim
Ha! Nice Slim. That does not cover very much ground.
Lol.
Excellent!
Of course it is going to snow.. It’s winter.. But, how can one spin the BELOW normal snowfall were having .. Hmm … I can think of only two people on this blog. LMAO !!!!!!!!!!!
Tons of snow in January! Wow! INDY!
And that’s also what you said a month ago about December. Just what happened??
BREAKING NEWS …. January thaw has been put on hold…Stay cold..INDY!!
BREAKING NEWS …. In order for there to be a thaw, it actually has to be below freezing for a sustained amount of time first.
Above average to average temps for the next 2 weeks. By that time, we could be 15-20″ below average snowfall, and average temps will soon begin rising into spring. Just another short winter!
http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/814temp.new.gif
What a load of ——-! Talk about spin! Near normal temps and precipitation in January = tons of snow! Face the facts, winter is about ready to unload on your warm weather fantasies! Bring it!
Triggered,, LOL !!!
The cold and snow has been a fantasy this winter!! Warmth and below normal snowfall has been the reality so far!! But keep up that wishcasting though!
Rocky great winter weather facts let me add some more Yesterdays snowfall was huge no more in second place over all for the least snowiest December on record! after Fridays snowfall coming we could be out of the top 10 our 3 week warmth is about over the blog is going to become much quieter again real soon…Artic air is coming!! INDYCOLD!!
You know it and keep the winter facts ROCKING!
We had a white Christmas yesterday! Light snow all afternoon and a fresh inch or so of snow? Who would have thought? I love it!
Officially at the airport it will not go down as a white christmas.
Facts are facts.. Nice one Barry.
No problem, I was just please that we had a white Christmas at our house!! Incredible!
You always seem to talk about GR weather in your posts. Today it’s actually your house.. Lol.
I will say the snowflakes falling here were beautiful even if it didn’t count at the airport as a White Christmas. We had huge snowflakes most of the day they did not stick to the ground.
Breaking news! All signs point towards a big pattern change to cold and snow in January! Bring it!
But we’re all still waiting for the tons of snow and cold you promised us for December.
Barry, Barry, Barry, you are hopeless!
Well, since I do not wish cast every day, and then fail miserably at it, but you do, I would say that makes you the hopeless one here.
Wow get a grip!
It would appear you have lost control. Its alright, just a complete lack of December snow. You will get through this, and remember, there’s always December next year!
Lol… INDY!
What a pretty day. Forecast called for clouds, but we have lots of warm sunshine.
Just another ABOVE average temp day with no snow!! INCREDIBLE WARMTH for this time of year with no change in sight!!! On top of that, we are looking at a top 5 least snowiest December!! AMAZING!!! WHO KNEW?!??!
From Hudsonville to the West, there was no snow at all on the ground yesterday. Few flakes during the day, but dry roads to travel around on! It will be interesting now for two things: where will we end up the month in regards to all time least amount of snowfall, and the other would be just how long does this stretch of above average days extend? It is a real oddity to have two 20 plus days of above or below average within 4 or 5 months.
I hope everyone had a Merry Christmas. As Indy stated the day started with a trace of snow on the ground and there was a light snow falling for most of the day. Officially GRR reported 0.4” of snow fall and by late in the day I had a ½” snow cover. The snow is now starting to melt as the current temperature here is now up to 36° The total snow fall for Grand Rapids for December is now at 2.4” That has moved Grand Rapids up to 4th place in the all time least amount of December snow fall. the current list is 1. 2014 with 1.0” 2. 1913 with 2.3” 3. 1912 with 2.3” 4. 2018 2.4” 5. 2015 with 2.5” 6. 1979 with 2.6” 7. 1971 with 3.7” 8. 1906 with 3.8” 9. 1943 with 4.2” 10. 2011 with 4.5”. Here is a fun fact the current 30 year annual mean total seasonal snow fall for Grand Rapids in 77..4” but in the above least snowy Decembers the mean annual total snow fall is just 48.6” ranging from a high of 79.1” in 1971/72 to a low of just 30.1” in 1906/07. With just 6 days to go it is time to see how December 2018 ends up and how the winter of 2018/19 ends up.
Slim
15 warm days in a row, more than 9″ below average snowfall so far this winter, and mid 50’s in the upcoming forecast! Does it get much better?
Welcome back MV’S best hope your holiday was a white like ours was out at thee YARDofBRICKS beautiful snow came down on and off most of the day making it a white perfect Christmas thanks mother nature pressing on we have a major storm system coming into the great lks with severe weather on one side and a full out Blizzard on the otherside the storm is going to open it’s door for more cold air across West Michigan! Rain showers changing to snow on Friday with 1-3 inches of snow yes snow and a new years storm brewing buckle up MV’S best it’s going to be a stormy mess in 2019 …stay tuned INDY!
Welcome back, everyone. I hope everyone had a wonderful Christmas. Midnight Mass was packed. Lots of CEOs (Christmas & Easter Only), but it was nice to see a big turnout to celebrate the birth of Christ. Not much to talk about weather wise. Just a couple of flurries, but at least the roads were in good shape. I hope everyone has a great, shortened week.