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Weather History & Chances of Rain

We reached 82° yesterday and currently have a warm 61.7° at 5 am this morning.  We need an all-day rain to wet things up outside but we won’t be seeing that today.  Chances of rain are 40 to 50% with perhaps a rumble of thunder mainly near and west of US 131.


Weather History for SE Michigan

May 16

On May 16th, 1974, an F1 tornado hit Sanilac County at 11:30 PM.

Three years later on May 16th, 1977 in Detroit, the temperature rose 49 degrees from a morning low of 40 to an afternoon high of 89.

May 17

On May 17, 1999, a thunderstorm bringing winds of 58 mph swept through Northville at 6:15 pm causing 2 thousand dollars in damages. Also on this date in 1999, winds of 60 mph occurred with storms passing through Oakley at 5:00 pm causing 5 thousand dollars in damages and through Saginaw at 5:22 pm causing $3,000 in damages.

May 18

On May 18, 2017, a record high low temperature of 68 degrees was set at Flint, breaking the old record of 62 degrees from 2015.

On May 18, 1962, the temperature rose to 93 degrees in Detroit, which is the record high for the day. This marked the fifth day in a row (May 14-18) that record daily highs were set in Detroit!

May 19

On May 19, 1983, an F2 tornado hit Macomb County at 6:27 PM causing $25,000 in property damage.

May 20

On May 20, 1996, lightning within a thunderstorm that went through Richfield Township at 2:53 pm caused one injury.

May 21

On May 21, 1953, an F4 tornado moved through St. Clair County at 4:21 PM. This tornado is responsible for 2 deaths and 68 injuries. It ties with an F4 tornado that formed June 8, 1953, as the strongest tornado ever to hit St. Clair County.

Also on May 21, 2001, an F2 tornado hit Hartland and dissipated near Fenton. Other weak tornadoes hit Oakland, Lapeer, Shiawassee, and Saginaw Counties.

May 22

On May 22, 1883, a very late-season snowstorm hit Detroit with five inches of snow accumulating during the overnight hours.


Weather History for SW Michigan

May 16

1997: Record low temperatures are set at Grand Rapids and Muskegon with both falling to 29 degrees. This will go in the record books as the coldest May on record at Grand Rapids.

May 17

1962: An early-season heatwave sends temperatures into the upper 80s and lower 90s across Lower Michigan. Record highs on this date include the 91 at Grand Rapids, 89 at Lansing and 88 at Muskegon.

May 18

1915: Lansing records their latest measurable snow on record with 0.4 inches, and Grand Rapids does also, with 0.2 inches there.

May 19

1923: A tornado injured two people in Kent County as it moved through rural areas from east of Coopersville to near Sparta.

2002: Snowflakes fly across Lower Michigan as record cold weather prevails. Record lows include 26 degrees at Lansing, 29 at Muskegon and 30 at Grand Rapids. The freezing temperatures cause heavy losses to orchards across western Lower Michigan.

May 20

1975: A tornado injured one person as it destroyed two mobile homes at Byron Center in Kent County.

1977: The last half of May is unusually warm. Record high temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s are set across Lower Michigan from the 16th to the 28th. This helps make it the warmest May on record at Grand Rapids.

May 21

2001: A swarm of at least 20 tornadoes descended on Lower Michigan. Fortunately, most of the tornadoes are relatively weak and only five people were injured. Damage included dozens of trees downed, barns were blown over and roof and siding damage to several homes. Three homes and a golf course were heavily damaged north of Hartland in Livingston County.

2004: Severe weather causes widespread damage across southern Lower Michigan. Thunderstorm winds up to 70 mph, large hail and flash flooding occurred as a squall line moved from Benton Harbor to Ann Arbor. Hundreds of trees are knocked down and thousands lose power.

May 22

1917: Cold rain mixes with snow and temperatures rise only to the lower 40s after morning lows in the lower 30s.

1963: Snowflakes fall at Lansing as morning low temperatures in the 30s only rise to the mid and upper 40s.


Forecast Discussion

- Chances for a few showers/storms today

An area of rain is lifting north up the length of Lake Michigan
early this morning. It is actually raining in Fremont, Ludington
and Manistee. This activity is associated with a shortwave aloft
that is riding up the western side of the Eastern U.S. ridge. This
precipitation should be over by about 900am or so.

The focus then shifts to some shower and thunderstorm potential
from this afternoon and evening as an 850mb low level jet
increases during that time near and just west of us. The SPC HREF
indicates some shower and possibly isolated thunderstorm
development near and west of Highway 131 around midday. This
activity will then lift northeast through the day. Overall not
impressed with the strength or aerial extent of the
precipitation. This is due to the fact we are very close to the
mean ridge position and there is a lack of a trigger both at the
surface and aloft. The NAM is showing 1,000 j/kg of MUCAPE
developing, but this could be ambitious. The SPC HREF is showing
more on the order of 500 j/kg. So we may see an isolated storm,
but certainly nothing close to severe.

- Small precipitation chances the rest of the week

The lack of a clear trigger remains from tonight through Friday.
We are still near/within the upper ridge which will put a clamp on
significant precipitation. There is a shortwave moving through on
Friday and we will have to watch that time frame, but overall
think large amounts of time in the latter half of the work week
will be dry and our forecast reflects this.

- Better opportunities for precipitation this weekend and next
  week

Better chances for showers and thunderstorms exist in the Sunday
through Tuesday time frame specifically. A front will drop into
the forecast area from the north on Sunday, remain in the area as
a warm front on Monday and finally a cold front drives through
next Tuesday. Deep moisture will remain in place, so thinking this
is our best time frame for precipitation (Sun-Tues).

- The warmth continues

The warmth will continue right through next Tuesday with 850mb
temperatures remaining between +12C and +16C the entire time. The
warmest days clearly look to be Thursday, Friday and Saturday
with highs well into the 80s. Normal highs are around 70 degrees,
so we could be 15-20 degrees above normal on Friday.
newest oldest
Slim

Got the windows open and that is all that is needed for now. I did do a test run of the A/C to make sure it worked ok. After the rain it is now cloudy and 73 here very comfortable to say the least.
Slim

Slim

The skies became very dark and then the “rain” moved in and with a drum roll please…..A total of 0.02″ of rain fell.
Slim

Barry in Zeeland
Barry in Zeeland

I had 7 drops on the windshield driving home this afternoon. Yes I counted them.

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

I am still (impatiently) waiting for some precip.

Andy W
Andy W

Temps like the middle of July coming up!! Better prepare now and get that A/C ready!! Very warm temps for mid-May!!

Jeff (Portland)
Jeff (Portland)

Turned our A/C on for the first time this season. Summer sizzle is on.

Slim

In reading the weather history of SE Michigan I got a kind of kick out of the “damages” from the thunderstorms of May 17th 1999. I did not know that damages that small were kept in the record books. BTW the record highs thru Sunday are in the low 90’s we will see just how warm it gets the next several days.
Slim

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

That is strange/interesting.

I see rain on the radar over in your neck of the woods. Send some of that this way, will ya?

Mookie
Mookie

3 warm days in a row… might as well make it 4. Feels like the middle of summer!

Slim

The overnight low both here at my house and at the airport was 62. Once again no rain fell. At the current time it is cloudy and 65 here at my house.
Slim