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Warmth Hangs On

Yesterday we had another warm day with a high of 80° and a low of 63°.  Today we will see temperatures rise again to the mid to upper 70s.  The week ahead will feature temperatures near or above 70°.  Temperatures will cool into the 60s to begin next week.  There will be slight chances of rain tomorrow and Friday.

The tropics are ramping up in the Atlantic with two named storms – none will affect the US.


Weather History

1899: September ended on a very cool note with a record low of 21 degrees at Lansing and afternoon highs only in the 40s. The high of 44 degrees at Muskegon made for the coldest September maximum temperature on record there.

On September 30, 2002, the very warm and dry month ended with record high temperatures of 86 degrees at both Saginaw and Flint. Flint ended the month with their driest September, 0.29 inches, and Saginaw had their second driest September, 0.39 inches. After an extremely hot and dry July and August, the weather of September 2002 only exasperated drought conditions. During the first half of the month, hundreds of communities across the area were under water restrictions. Hardest hit from the drought was the agricultural industry. September yields across most of the area were estimated at under 50 percent and many counties across eastern Michigan were declared agricultural disaster areas.

On September 30, 1987, a thunderstorm brought 3/4-inch hail and winds gusting to 65 mph in Wayne County.


NWS Forecast

Today
Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. East wind 3 to 7 mph.
Tonight
Patchy fog before 2 am, then patchy fog after 5 am. Otherwise, partly cloudy, with a low around 61. Light southeast wind.
Tuesday
A 20 percent chance of showers before 2 pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 72. Light and variable wind becoming northwest at 9 to 14 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 23 mph.
Tuesday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 41. North northwest wind 5 to 9 mph becoming calm after midnight.
Wednesday
Sunny, with a high near 69. Calm wind becoming southwest 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon.
Wednesday Night
Clear, with a low of around 48.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 74.
Thursday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low of around 48.
Friday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 70.
Friday Night
Mostly clear, with a low of around 42.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 69.
Saturday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 46.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 72.

Forecast Discussion

- Patchy fog possible this morning with Warm weather today

 Any lingering showers and most of the low clouds remains along
the Michigan border. The dropping temperatures and low level
moisture coupled with calm winds could allow for some patchy fog
this morning, especially in and around Jackson. A positively tiled
ridge will build over the region today. This will bring fair
weather with max temperatures today expected to be in the upper
70s to low 80s which is 10 to 15 degrees above normal

- Chance of showers and storms Tuesday

 The warm temps and fair weather will be short lived as an upper
level system will swing a cold front through the region tomorrow.
There is still a narrow band of moisture that will correspond
with the cold front which could spark some thunderstorms Tuesday
afternoon. Latest models continue to show a lack of moisture
through the western portion of the state which makes instability
questionable. As the front gets through the central lower
peninsula the short wave amplifies and HREF is showing then
around 500 to 1000 J/kg of CAPE. So while moisture remains limited
through the western side of the state the eastern half should 1
to 1.25 inch PWATS. That anomalous moisture could aid in
thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon. So have trended upward
in POPS with an thunderstorms west of US 131 and mainly along and
east of the US 127 corridor. The front will cool temperatures and
move through quickly exiting the region Tuesday night.

- Mostly Dry and Seasonal Mid to Late Week

A fairly uneventful mid to late week period expected with a zonal
flow aloft dominating and the upper jet core remaining mostly to our
north along the U.S./Canadian border. High temperatures will average
near to above normal in the 65 to 75 degree range. Some patchy frost
cannot be ruled out early Wed morning north of I-96 depending on the
extent of clearing behind Tuesday`s cold front.

A weak sfc frontal boundary is shown to come into the area on
Thursday and stall out nearby into Friday. Upper jet entrance region
dynamics may come into play as the swift Pacific jet temporarily
buckles south into the Upper Midwest, but moisture looks to be
lacking and only 20 pops seem justified at this time.

A better cold front may enter the picture next Sunday which could
support a better risk of showers. However cluster analysis that far
out currently depicts considerable uncertainty as to whether or not
upper troughing to support that front digs south into the region,
and to what extent. Only 20-30 pops are justified at this time.
newest oldest
Nathan (Forest Hills)
Nathan (Forest Hills)

I know AccuWeather isn’t always accurate… but it has us pretty warm the first few weeks of October. So probably lots of 60s/70s coming up. Should be a nice stretch!

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

Average right now I believe is 68 or 69 so near to slightly above average will be nice.

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

Although it’s will be interested to see if the temps end up maybe a couple degrees warmer due to the dry conditions. We shall see I guess.

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

Grand Rapids has been in all the sunshine. Yesterday at my house we had some breaks in the clouds but lots of overcast yesterday. I’m in Lansing right now and it is solidly cloudy and quite cool at 60 currently. I’d rather have the clouds than sun personally.

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

We’ve had a few peeks of sun. It’s warmed up nicely. Currently 74 here.

Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)
Kyle (Portland, Ionia County)

Lansing airport has 66. I’m in full sun at my house with 71.

Slim

We have reached the last day of a very warm September the mean temperature at Grand Rapids so far this month is 66.9 we will end the month at either the 9th or 8th warmest on record. At Muskegon it will be the 2nd warmest with a mean of 67.0 at Lansing it will be the 10 warmest with a mean of 66.1 And up at he Sault it will be their warmest September with a mean of 64.1 records go back to 1888 at the Sault.
Slim

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Bring on the cold front! Winter could be wild this year! You heard it here first! Mark it down!