Warming Trend

posted in: Michigan Weather Forecast | 15

We had another 2.5 inches of snowfall last night which fell in a little more than two hours.  This brings us to 7.9 inches for November.  The high temp yesterday was 37° and the low was 24°.   We have 26° at 6 am.

Temps will increase into the 40s for most of the rest of the week for daytime highs with precipitation chances in the 20 to 30 percentile.  Today will be mostly cloudy with patches of drizzle possible this afternoon when temperatures should be above freezing. Highs will reach the mid-30s to mid-40s today. Temperatures will be significantly warmer for the middle of the week, with highs warming into the 40s Wednesday, and the mid-40s to low 50s Thursday.  We are now looking at the possibility of a snowstorm coming in late Sunday (see the end of forecast Discussion).

Forecast Discussion

-Warming trend into midweek

We have been in a colder weather pattern since Friday since the
polar jet has been south of Michigan during that time. However,
that is about to change. Thanks to a system, currently in the Gulf
of Alaska, that has a 185kt speed max tracking along with it, the
polar jet near us is forced north of Michigan the rest of the
week. That happens due to that jet core coming on shore over
British Columbia and in turn building a progressive upper ridge.
As this upper ridge progresses eastward, our air temperatures
will warm into Thursday.


Even so, we have two weak systems that will come through prior to
the warmest day, that day being Thursday. The system that brought
us the snow, has moved well east of us already. We have another
shortwave, with a weak cold front, coming through this afternoon.
That will bring some low clouds and drizzle as it comes through.
The front is shallow and so will the moisture associated with it.

Expect some clearing this evening once the front clears the area,
thanks to a weak shortwave ridge moving into the area. That will
allow for temperatures to fall well below freezing tonight. That
will in turn allow the refreezing of water from melting snow on
untreated sidewalks and roads.

On Wednesday, we have the leading part of that 185 knot jet core
moving into southern Manitoba with a fairly deep surface low (993
mb). It tracks just north of the Canadian board. This brings
us some significant warm air advection. However there is not a
lot of mid level moisture to work with. Even so, this is a warm
front type event. That means we will have the threat of some
light snow/rain showers the morning and more so just rain showers
in the afternoon. These will be more like flurries or sprinkles
actually. Afternoon temperatures will rise in the 40s, melting a
lot of what snow remains after today.

Thursday would be very warm if not for the polar front that comes
through during the day. Since the polar jet, stays in southern
Canada during this time, we do not get deeply into the cold air
just yet. That allows us have highs pushing 50 degrees on Thursday
but that will be during the mid to late morning. Once the cold
front comes through, temperatures will start falling. This cold
front is expected to come through mostly dry.

We do get a surface high to come into the area behind the front so
Friday will be dry with some limited afternoon sunshine (since the
cold air will be to shallow for lake effect clouds).

A shortwave tracking east on the polar jet to our north, may
bring some light precipitation late Friday night into early
Saturday but Saturday during the day should be largely dry.


-Possible snow storm late in the weekend then really cold

So here is where the weather gets glitchy. It turns out we have a
developing Typhoon (Nyatoh) in the western Pacific that is
expected to recurved into the north Pacific over the weekend.
This will buckle the upper air pattern enough of force a
developing trough over Great Lakes late in the weekend. Both the
GFS and ECMWF give Michigan a significant snow storm from this
event in the late Sunday to Monday time frame. How we get that
storm is significantly different on those models. About 70 percent
of the ensembles of both models have this snow storm.

The snow storm, if it happens, would be in the late Sunday or
Monday time frame. Behind this storm is VERY COLD air. It is
questionable if the system that develops will be deep enough to
pull this air far enough south to that it gets into this area.
We could have highs in the teens Monday or Tuesday if that does
happens. That in turn would bring a significant lake effect snow
event with it. We will have to keep on eye on this potential event
as it would be the most impactful of the season so far.

 

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Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

About 1/2 the snow melted today when the sun made an appearance. The local met showed the temps for next week: 30s-40s.

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Average high this time of year is about 40 degrees.

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

Get ready for a possible snowstorm the beginning of next week and then a wintry, stormy pattern after that! Rock n roll will never die!

Mookie
Mookie

Here comes the warm up! Go BLUE!

INDY
INDY

Im at 11 inches of snow now for the young season out in my hood down to 79 inches togo on my 90 inches not bad ….We have plenty morre snow on the way off to a dandy of a start or should I say snowy….InDY…

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

It is going to be wild winter! Make sure your snowblower is ready or set up a plow service this year! Bring it!

Slim

Yesterdays official snow fall of 3.5″ at Grand Rapids is now the 4th snowiest for any November 29 at Grand Rapids. For the month of November Grand Rapids is now at 9.7″ this is above the average for November of 7.1″ It should be noted that the November record at Grand Rapids is 31.0 set in 2014. At Muskegon they have recorded 5.6″ of snow fall this November and at Lansing the total is 5.4″
Slim

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

the GR monthly snow total is up to 9.7 inches! Wow! This well above normal and way above last year, so no this winter is not starting like last year. In fact it is totally different! Keep it rocking!

Slim

The new 30 year average at Grand Rapids is 7.1″ and has ranged from no snow at all to 31.0″ in November.
Slim

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

What a storm! West Mi got pounded with a November snowstorm yesterday and it looks great outside right now! Incredible!

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

And now just in past 45 minutes or so, it has become very foggy.

INDY
INDY

Above average snowfall for November…We saw this coming at the beginning of the month and look at the modles for this coming weekend looks like e even more snow on the way we are off to a above average snowfall for the Winter could it be?? who knew?? Great Scottish..InDY

Rocky (Rockford)
Rocky (Rockford)

You know it! At least 2 people knew about the below normal temps and above normal snowfall!

Slim

Here at my house (and officially at GRR) there was 3.5″ of snow fall yesterday afternoon into the evening. There is a total of 3.5″ of snow on the ground here. The overnight low here at my house was 25 and at this time there are some lake effect clouds and it is now 26 here.
Slim

Mark (East Lansing)
Mark (East Lansing)

The highlighted blue text is VERY interesting. We received approx 1.5″ overnight.