We have a cold 5.7° at 6:30 this morning with clear skies in Otsego. We had four inches of snowfall yesterday morning which brings us to 19.8 inches for the month and 39 inches for the season with more coming for tonight before we enter a period of warming temps beginning today lasting through the week as the Arctic air retreats.
My only concern about our next system is the warmer temps mixing in which could give us some rain mixing in with the snow which could cause a sloppy mess for the morning commute and for snow removal. Overnight temps will hover around or a bit above freezing.
Here are the total snowfall from the last system:
Here is the projected snowfall for tonight’s system – there are no advisories in place yet as of this morning:
- Period of snow tonight with some impacts There are still some uncertainties as far as how much impact we will see out of this next storm system tonight. Decent confidence exists on much of the area seeing roughly 2 to 3 inches of snow in the 00z Mon to 10z Mon period. There are some potential limiting factors for the amount of impacts from this though. It does look like most of the snow will be over by the morning commute...thus the timing of the snowfall is when traffic will be at a minimum. In addition...the surface temperatures are projected to climb just above freezing overnight for much of the region before cooling it back down to near freezing by daybreak. Some models...like the GFS...are actually raising values up in to the mid 30s for the Grand Rapids to Lansing corridor by 06z Mon. For now we will hold off on an advisory...but the potential for needing one is still there. If the forecast trends toward more snow or colder surface temps...the impacts could certainly warrant the need for an advisory. This system will be drawing up some Gulf moisture which could support higher precipitation rates...thus close monitoring will be needed. - Some melting snow Tue into Wed A period of above normal temperatures is looking likely for Tuesday into Wednesday. For this time of the year...that will mean melting snow. A surface wave of low pressure tracks eastward through Southern Canada...pushing the arctic air away from the Great Lakes Region. If we mix to 925 mb where progged temps are shown to be around freezing...surface temperatures will make a run at 40 degrees. This would keep the snowmelt to gradual rates. There could be icy spots around to start each day given overnight forecasted temps of around freezing. - Turning colder for Thu into Fri As the wave of low pressure tracks into Quebec Wednesday...the Great Lakes Region will see a cold front push through. The 925 mb thermal trough arrives in MI for Thursday. Values are shown to dip down to -5 to -6 deg C. This will act to keep high temperatures from topping the normal values which are in the mid 30s. That will slow the melting down. Overnight lows Thursday night are projected to end up several degrees below normal with most locations in the teens.