Warming Temps – Snow Tonight

We have a cold 5.7° at 6:30 this morning with clear skies in Otsego.  We had four inches of snowfall yesterday morning which brings us to 19.8 inches for the month and 39 inches for the season with more coming for tonight before we enter a period of warming temps beginning today lasting through the week as the Arctic air retreats.

My only concern about our next system is the warmer temps mixing in which could give us some rain mixing in with the snow which could cause a sloppy mess for the morning commute and for snow removal.  Overnight temps will hover around or a bit above freezing.

Here are the total snowfall from the last system:

Here is the projected snowfall for tonight’s system – there are no advisories in place yet as of this morning:

Forecast Discussion

- Period of snow tonight with some impacts

There are still some uncertainties as far as how much impact we
will see out of this next storm system tonight. Decent confidence
exists on much of the area seeing roughly 2 to 3 inches of snow
in the 00z Mon to 10z Mon period. There are some potential
limiting factors for the amount of impacts from this though. It
does look like most of the snow will be over by the morning
commute...thus the timing of the snowfall is when traffic will be
at a minimum. In addition...the surface temperatures are projected
to climb just above freezing overnight for much of the region
before cooling it back down to near freezing by daybreak. Some
models...like the GFS...are actually raising values up in to the
mid 30s for the Grand Rapids to Lansing corridor by 06z Mon. For
now we will hold off on an advisory...but the potential for
needing one is still there. If the forecast trends toward more
snow or colder surface temps...the impacts could certainly warrant
the need for an advisory. This system will be drawing up some
Gulf moisture which could support higher precipitation
rates...thus close monitoring will be needed.

- Some melting snow Tue into Wed

A period of above normal temperatures is looking likely for
Tuesday into Wednesday. For this time of the year...that will mean
melting snow. A surface wave of low pressure tracks eastward
through Southern Canada...pushing the arctic air away from the
Great Lakes Region. If we mix to 925 mb where progged temps are
shown to be around freezing...surface temperatures will make a run
at 40 degrees. This would keep the snowmelt to gradual rates.
There could be icy spots around to start each day given overnight
forecasted temps of around freezing.

- Turning colder for Thu into Fri

As the wave of low pressure tracks into Quebec Wednesday...the
Great Lakes Region will see a cold front push through. The 925 mb
thermal trough arrives in MI for Thursday. Values are shown to dip
down to -5 to -6 deg C. This will act to keep high temperatures
from topping the normal values which are in the mid 30s. That will
slow the melting down. Overnight lows Thursday night are projected
to end up several degrees below normal with most locations in the
teens.