Warming Temps – Friday Storms – Lunar Eclipse – 3/13

A sure sign of spring, our crocus flowers and daffodils are blooming as our warming trend continues.  Yesterday we reached 58 after a morning low of 31.5.  The warming trend will continue through Friday with highs in the 70s Friday and Saturday. A weather system will move through Friday night into Saturday morning with showers and possibly thunderstorms.

Friday SPC Forecast

WPC Friday Forecast

Fire Danger

Lunar Eclipse

Weather History

1990: A spell of record warm weather continues across Lower Michigan with temperatures in the 70s. Lansing hits 74 degrees during a string of four straight days in the 70s.

1993: The Superstorm of 1993 dumps three to four feet of snow across the Appalachians and draws down record cold arctic air across Lower Michigan. High temperatures struggle to reach the lower 20s with gusty winds making it feel even colder.

On March 13, 2017, a clipper brought widespread 1 to 2 inches of snow accumulation to SE Michigan. With easterly wind off of Lake Erie, lake enhancement led to a small area of 3 to 6 inches in the Detroit Metro area. Thousands of area residents were still without power during this event due to the record March 8th wind storm a few days prior.

Also on March 13, 1990, the overnight temperature dropped to only 59 degrees in Flint, which is the record maximum low temperature for the day. This was also the second day in a string of four days (March 12-15) that record maximum low temperatures were set.

Forecast Discussion

- Above Normal Temps until Saturday, Elevated Fire Danger Friday

The zonal flow that was over the region will shift to the east as
a negatively tilted ridge builds over the Great Lakes through
Friday. This will allow for warm air advection into the region.
 Anomalous temperatures will continue to move over lower Michigan
with Max temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s today and into
the low 70s tomorrow.

 Other than mild weather for the next few days there is some
concern fore fire weather danger. The dry conditions over this
past week will continue allowing for drier fuels. However, while
today will be warm and dry, with RH`s into the low 30s to upper
20s, Winds will remain fairly light out of the east south east
today.
 Tomorrow, temperatures continue to climb, but with it will be
slightly more moisture advection. Winds will shift to the south on
Friday, and will increase in gustiness, with wind gusts upwards
of 30 mph possible Friday afternoon. This will increase fire
danger. However, the caveat will be if RH`s will remain dry as
there is some signal that there will be enough moisture advection
that would preclude a precipitous drop in RH`s tomorrow afternoon.
Either way, it will be warm and windy out ahead of the
approaching system.

- Showers and Storms Possible Friday Night, Windy Saturday

 Latest models now have a closed upper level low tracking to the
east late Friday into Saturday. There is some question about how
much convection the region receives. The upper level low will
track through Wisconsin and the mid range models remain in fair
agreement as it moves to the northwest of Lower Michigan. As it
moves to the northwest it will occlude into Saturday morning with
the best instability to the south and north of lower Michigan. The
moisture field is also moving fairly quickly and the latest NAM
and EC does show some higher CAPE values with a 60 to 70 kt LLJ
with warm frontal passage. QPF through this timeframe is less than
0.5 inches so not the best moisture available for showers and
storms. That said, a quick blast of showers and storms is still
expected Friday night into early Saturday morning, though it could
split much of the region. The system will move quickly eastward
and will clear the region by mid morning.

 In the wake of the upper level low a deepening trough will create
moist southerly flow over the area which is expected to bring
gusty southerly winds across the area Saturday afternoon. Wind
gusts upwards of 40 to 50 mph will be possible with another day
into the low 70s.

- Cold and Showery Saturday night into Sunday, Warm up next week

 A ribbon of high QPF extending from the thumb southwest into
Indiana should bring another round of showers late Saturday into
Sunday. The best QPF will be east of southwest Michigan, however
areas east of Marshall could see some more robust rainfall.
 As the upper level trough moves to the east, colder, moister flow
should bring more widespread precipitation early Sunday morning.
However, that will be short lived as cooler, drier air moves in
from the northwest.
 Highs will drop back down to normal Sunday into Monday, before
climbing back into the 60s by Tuesday.

Local Forecasts