Warmer Weather In Store

Yesterday morning was our first hard freeze, with temperatures dropping to 28° and then warming to 62°. I have been mulching the leaves on the ground daily with my lawn tractor. I don’t have a lot of gumption to do a lot of raking, and leaf mulch is good for the lawn. We have lost over three-quarters of the leaves off the trees, and I figure most will be gone by the end of the week.

Today we begin a warming trend with a good chance of showers overnight,  temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s tomorrow and Wednesday with rain chances again on Wednesday Night into Thursday morning.  Winds will also be on the increase today through midweek.

Weather History

1869: Michigan is in the grip of an icy cold wave. The temperature falls into the teens for eight consecutive days at Lansing, where it is the coldest October on record.

On October 28, 1980, 2.9 inches of snow fell in Detroit on the 27th and 28th. This was the highest snow amount for the month of October in Detroit

Also on October 28, 1976, there was a two-day streak of record lows in Detroit. The temperature was 22 degrees on the 27th and 21 degrees on the 28th.

NWS Forecast

Forecast Discussion

- Showers/Storms Late Tonight

A tightening pressure gradient (between a large coastal Atlantic
high and developing low pressure over the central Plains) will set
us up locally for a few days of strong southwesterly flow with a
long fetch from the Southern Plains and Gulf of Mexico. Our air
today will still be somewhat cool, plus dry with dew points in the
30s.

West Michigan will be on the nose of a 50-60 knot 850 mb jet
extending from Kansas to northern Illinois late tonight. Moist
transport convergence and ascent along a developing warm frontal
surface will favor shower development late tonight. MUCAPE around
250-500 J/kg, a reasonable amount of which is within the -10 to -20
C layer, would support some lightning/thunder. HREF places
convective development near the Lake Michigan shore after midnight,
then moving east of US-127 by 6 AM. Rain totals should range from
very light in Southwest Michigan to about a quarter inch, perhaps
locally a half inch, in Central Michigan.

- Record Warmth and Blustery Tue-Wed

Our 850 mb temperatures are progged to climb to about 16 C on
Tuesday, which is right around the highest recorded during this time
of year in the DTX raob sounding history. With a fair amount of
lower atmosphere mixing over the land, this should correspond to
record high temperatures on Tuesday, near record highs potentially
on Wednesday, and record warm low temperatures for the calendar day
Wednesday. See the Climate section below for records.

Models have come in with a little less cloud cover particularly on
Tuesday, as fairly dry low-mid level air from the southern Plains
moves in after tonight`s thunderstorms. 30 to 40 mph gusts are
likely Tuesday and Wednesday whenever and wherever better mixing
from the surface can tap into the 850 mb jet. HRRR suggests the best
pop of wind gusts over land between late morning and early afternoon
Tuesday. 45 mph gusts, approaching Wind Advisory, are possible
between Holland and Ludington on Tuesday as deeper mixing is often
forced in that area downwind of a stable marine layer. Dew points in
the mid 50s to near 60 on Tue and Wed may mitigate the fire weather
threat somewhat, though any location that has dry fuels and strong
winds can still be prone to fire spread.

- Tricky Forecast for Thursday Evening

Wednesday night and Thursday will see rain moving in ahead of and
along a cold front advancing eastward, which will put an end to the
balmy temperatures. There could also be some embedded thunder as
model soundings show elevated instability and a strong low level jet.

The trick or treating forecast is indeed tricky for Thursday. At
this point we still have chance POPs for Thursday evening although
we may be in a dry slot in between rain associated with the warm
conveyer belt moving off to the east and developing lake-enhanced
rain showers in the post-frontal cyclonic flow.

Surface high builds in with dry and cool weather for the end of the
week. Then return flow moisture increases late in the weekend
although precip chances will be low until shortwave trough digs in
across the Great Lakes early next week.

.CLIMATE...

- October 29 Record Highs:
Grand Rapids...77 (1901)
Lansing........76 (1999)
Muskegon.......74 (1896)
Holland........76 (1922, 1999)
Kalamazoo......77 (1999)
Battle Creek...77 (1999)

- October 30 Record Warm Lows:
Grand Rapids...58 (1901, 1974)
Lansing........59 (1974)
Muskegon.......59 (1901)
Holland........57 (1946, 1999)
Kalamazoo......63 (1946)
Battle Creek...59 (1900)

- October 30 Record Highs:
Grand Rapids...79 (1950)
Lansing........77 (1950, 1971)
Muskegon.......75 (1971)
Holland........77 (1948, 1971)
Kalamazoo......82 (1950)
Battle Creek...78 (1950)