Warmer Today – Weather History

Today will be our most pleasant day for the rest of the week with filtered sunshine and temperatures in the low to mid-60s.  The chances of rain increase tonight and continue through the rest of the week.  Tomorrow we have another soaking rain in store with the chance of a thundershower though no severe weather is predicted.

Forecast

Weather History for SW Michigan

October 15

1899: Muskegon hits 86 degrees for its highest October temperature on record.

1944: Cold air is firmly entrenched in Lower Michigan with record lows of 23 degrees at Grand Rapids and 25 degrees at Muskegon.

October 16

1943: A snowstorm drops an inch or two of slushy snow across southwest Lower Michigan. The high temperature at Grand Rapids and Lansing is only 39 degrees.

October 17

1952: After a frosty morning with lows in the 20s, snowflakes fly across western Lower Michigan. An inch of snow accumulates at Muskegon.

2002: Cold weather arrives across western Lower Michigan with high temperatures only around 40 degrees and periods of wet snow mixing in with a cold rain.

October 18

1834: One of the first recorded tornadoes in Michigan strikes Kalamazoo, damaging several homes and businesses.

1972: It is an early taste of winter as a snowstorm hits Lower Michigan. The storm dropped 4.6 inches of snow at Muskegon, the heaviest snow on record for so early in the season there.

1976: A cold snap drops the temperature at Grand Rapids to 19 degrees for an early season record.

2007: A tornado with top winds estimated at about 130 mph strikes Williamston in Ingham County. Two people are killed when their mobile home is demolished. Several other homes are heavily damaged.

October 19

1989: Four to five inches of snow falls across Lower Michigan as a record early season snowfall causes power outages and travel delays.

October 20

1992: One to three inches of snow blankets southwest Lower Michigan at the culmination of three days of wintry weather with lows around 30 degrees and highs in the lower 40s.

October 21

1974: It is one of the coldest mornings on record in western Lower Michigan with temperatures falling into the teens. Grand Rapids falls to 18 degrees, the lowest October temperature on record.

Weather History for SE Michigan

October 15

On October 15, 1952, Saginaw reported 0.04″ rainfall. This is one of only three days where measurable rain is recorded this October, the driest on record with 0.18″ total. Also for this month, Flint had the 5th driest month on record.

October 16

On October 16, 1938, a two-day streak of 85 degrees occurred in Detroit. Both the 16th and 17th had 85 degrees as the high and these are records for both days.

October 17

On October 17, 1947, a three-day heat streak ended in Flint. Temperatures ranged from 86 degrees on the 15th, 82 degrees on the 16th and 84 degrees on the 17th.

October 18

On October 18, 2007, a strong and potent storm in the Upper Great Lakes drove a cold front through Lower Michigan during the evening and overnight hours on October 18th and 19th. The atmosphere ahead of the cold front was very warm, moist, and unstable. These conditions combined with the strong storm to produce a late-season and late-night tornado outbreak. Five tornadoes were confirmed in Southeast Michigan in Shiawassee (EF1 near Perry), Genesee (EF0 in Thetford Township), Tuscola (two EF1s near Millington and near Deford), and Huron (EF1 near Port Hope) Counties. Only a couple of minor injuries were reported. Total property damages were estimated at around $1.5M.

Also on October 18, 1952, the overnight temperature dropped to 22 degrees in Flint, which was the record-low temperature for the day. Curiously enough, the very next year, 1953, the daytime temperature rose to 82 degrees, setting the record high temperature for the day.

October 19

On October 19, 1989, 2.7 inches of snow and some sleet fell in Detroit, and Flint had 3.5 inches of snow.

October 20

On October 20, 2011, a deep low pressure tracked through Detroit and led to strong northeast winds gusting to 60 mph in and around Saginaw Bay. The winds started during the evening hours of the 19th and continued through the overnight hours of the 20th. The prolonged nature of the very strong northeast winds pushed water from the Bay into the area rivers and streams including the Kawkawlin and Saginaw Rivers. Some low-lying park areas were flooded in Bay County. Numerous trees and large branches were brought down across the northern Thumb and Tri-Cities regions, leading to power outages.

Also on October 20, 1972, a two-day cold steak ended with record lows in Detroit on the 19th, 22 degrees, and on the 20th, 19 degrees.

October 21

On October 21, 1974, a record low of 17 degrees was reached in Detroit.

Forecast Discussion

- Dry Today, Showers Tonight into Thursday

A distinct upper low is evident on mid level WV imagery over the
Dakotas, and this feature is slated to arrive by Thursday. RAP13 is
even showing some elevated instability on the eastern and southern
flank of this system. Indeed, there are a few thunderstorms as of
this writing across South Dakota. Warm air advection at 850 mb
tonight coupled with increasing RH in the 925-700 mb layer and
increasing lift should help develop showers across the region,
starting with the lakeshore especially north of Holland.

Both the 00z HRRR and NAM 3km are showing MUCAPE values of 100-400
J/kg across the region during the day Thursday. The upper low will
arrive by peak heating, so it is conceivable that a few lightning
strikes could be generated from this system given this is already
occurring across the Dakotas and we will have at least some weak
support for lightning activity and perhaps hail generation as well.

00z HREF 24 hr PMM values through 00z Friday are showing 0.25"-0.50"
across the region, highest near and west of US 131. While this range
will be the rule, localized amounts over 0.50" are certainly
possible, with HREF max QPF indicating a few isolated spots could
reach 0.50"-0.75" or a bit more mainly north of Muskegon through
Thursday evening.

- Second Wave Saturday

A lull in shower coverage/intensity is expected Friday into Friday
evening in-between shortwaves, but the arrival of a second, potent,
clipper-type shortwave and associated sfc low from the northwest
could bring a period of heavier showers through the area later
Friday night into Saturday morning.

Track and timing of this system has been fairly consistent in
successive ECMWF deterministic runs which takes it through sw Lwr MI,
but other guidance is not quite as aggressive with the strength of
the wave and QPF amounts.

Looks like this will be a relatively narrow swath of rain along and
just left of it`s track which will likely need refinements in future
forecasts. The outcome from this system could be anything from
little to no QPF to nearly one half inch depending on it`s strength
and track.

- First Widespread Freeze Possible Sunday Night

Strong cold advection develops in the wake of that second wave from
later Saturday into Sunday and a period of brisk/gusty northerly
winds looks likely. It will be drying out as this occurs and most
lake effect should be just offshore. We may be looking at our first
widespread freeze of the season on Sunday night as sfc ridge settles
overhead.

- Active Pattern Develops Next Week, Mid to Late Week

Next week we have a pattern change coming as height rises take place
in response to a deep trough/upper low dropping south through the
wrn CONUS. Deep southwest flow is shown to develop, with highly
anomalous PWATs eventually arriving toward mid to late week once the
Gulf opens up. We could be looking at several rounds of convection
and a heavy rain threat setting up by next Wed-Thur related to
stalled baroclinic zone and waves riding northeast along it. Also,
remnants of TS Norma in the eastern Pacific could get drawn into
frontal zone at some point. Temps are expected to rise to above
normal levels during this time.