We close out the month of July today meaning met summer will be two-thirds over. Sunrise today was at 6:35 am and it sets at 9:05 pm. In Otsego, the rainfall for July is 5.40 inches which is more than an inch above normal. Our summer total is at 8.02 inches.
The mostly sunny and warm conditions will continue today. Tonight clouds will increase as a cold front approaches from the west. Showers and thunderstorms will arrive around daybreak for the lakeshore communities. These showers will then move inland through Monday morning. The front will exit the area during the afternoon. Uncomfortable heat and humidity will build in on Wednesday with temps in the 90s.
We are starting to eat fresh tomatoes, green onions, and peppers from our garden. The cucumbers are coming along nicely. There is nothing tastier than fresh tomatoes. I have had gardens for over 40 years, my mom always had a garden and my grandfather planted nearly two acres of every vegetable you can think of.
-- Showers and embedded storms late tonight and Monday -- We are looking at one more nice summer day today, before clouds and rain come in for much of Monday. We are seeing a little bit of moisture working in from the SW this morning in the form of some clouds coming in around 5k ft. We do not expect a lot of clouds today, but the current clouds and some diurnal cumulus development will justify a partly sunny forecast. We may see clouds diminish a bit temporarily this evening as diurnal clouds dissipate. Clouds will increase then again overnight, and areas North and West of GR will see some rain move in by 12z Mon. These rain showers will be out ahead of a fairly organized short wave, and associated low level jet moving in. The rain will then spread to the South and East through early afternoon. Thunder remains possible, but we are not expecting a lot of excitement with these storms at this time. The timing of the short wave through the area a bit before peak heating will be one of the strongest limiting factors. Instability is progged to increase to over 1,000 J/kg ML CAPEs with the warm and moist air ahead of the system, combined with falling heights aloft. Wind shear is a bit limited to 25 to 30 knots, and more favorable to the SE where the short wave will be closer to peak heating. We like the SPC Marginal risk just clipping our far SE counties at this time. Some downbursts of wind are most likely at this time with dry mid levels/DCAPEs 1,000+, and unidirectional wind profiles. Most of the rain should move out Monday afternoon as the short wave passes East of the area mostly by 18z. -- Increasing chance for heavy rain Wednesday-Thursday -- The models are hinting at some possible convection on Tuesday Night now. This convection would be associated with a developing warm front and the nose of a low level jet moving in. This looks to be short lived as it would end once the warm front presses through. Once the front moves through, Wednesday is still looking like a mostly hot day for most of the area. 850 mb temps are still forecast to warm into the lower 20s C with strong SW flow advecting in the hot air aloft. The factor that could temper temps a bit would be if showers and storms are able to fire ahead of the front and affect the northern portions of our area early enough. The further North areas will see better chances of more clouds and some rain that would keep them cool, compared to the South where it is likely they see more sun longer and they are deeper into the hot air. The best chance of showers and storms would be late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. The models are holding on to plenty of instability ahead of the front with plentiful heat and moisture in place, combined with falling heights and a short wave timed closely with the front. Some of the storms could have gusty winds on the leading edge, as forecast soundings show an inverted V sounding that would support microbursts. The concern will then shift to heavy rainfall as the front looks slow to move through. Ahead of the front, pwats are quite high with values over 2.00". The slow front, and some waves possibly riding along it could cause some training of heavy downpours resulting in locally heavy rainfall amounts. The front will slowly drift south into Thursday. There are even some indications that southern areas near the state border may see additional waves and rain move along the front into Friday. -- Cooler end of the week with additional chances for rain -- The trend over the last 24 hours has been for relatively cooler temperatures for the end of the week and next weekend. The models still reestablish the upper ridge over the area once the Wed-Thu front is able to clear. The difference however is that the low level flow is not conducive to advect hot air back into the area very quickly. There is a lot of uncertainty as far as rain chances are concerned for Friday and beyond. It all depends on how bottled up the features end up, and where the area ends up under it.