Warmer Today – Active Weather – Fire Risk 3/14 – Update

Yesterday we reached 69° and we should better that today with temperatures rising into the low 70s.  With winds gusting to 30 mph and low humidities, we have an increased risk of wildfires.

Fire Danger Outlook

SPC Forecast

WPC Outlook

Weather History

1904: A snowstorm drops up to a foot of snow across Lower Michigan with record daily snowfall of 10.5 inches at Grand Rapids, 10 inches at Lansing and 8.0 inches at Muskegon. This snow would contribute to some of the worst floods on record in southwest Lower Michigan when it melts off during the last week of the month.

2019: Thunderstorms with heavy rain combined with snowmelt and frozen ground to bring significant flooding across parts of central Lower Michigan. Newaygo County saw the worst flooding, with in more than 150 homes and 9 businesses flooded, as well as the closure of more than 100 roads and the complete washout of more than 30 roads. The flooding continued for several days with damage estimated at nearly 2 million dollars.

On March 14, 2019, a tornado outbreak occurred across the I-69 corridor during the afternoon and evening hours. 4 tornadoes developed from a line of severe storms – an EF0 near Corunna, an EF2 near Vernon, an EF0 near Flushing, and an EF0 near Genesee Township. The Vernon EF2 tornado had max estimated winds of 125 mph, was on the ground for 20 minutes, and had a path length of over 18 miles as it tracked northeast. Thankfully no injuries were reported from these storms, but numerous homes suffered damage.

On March 14, 1997, low pressure tracked across Southeast Lower Michigan. The storm brought widespread precipitation, mostly in the form of freezing rain, to Southeast Michigan from late on the 13th into the morning of the 14th. Total precipitation amounts ranged from around an inch to nearly two and a half inches. In the Detroit Metropolitan area, the ice storm resulted in power outages to over 425,000 homes and businesses; one of the largest outages in history. Several thousand residents were without power for as long as 4 to 5 days. In addition to powerlines, falling trees damaged dozens of cars and houses throughout the area.

Forecast Discussion

- Warm and breezy Today with showers and storms Tonight

 Today will be dominated by robust, warm, southerly flow and will
bring wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph and temperatures into the low to
mid 70s. The negatively tilted high pressure will bring an
tightening gradient that will tap into upper level winds to mix
down to the surface late this afternoon.

 Sunshine and gusty winds will allow for drier conditions, however
dewpoints from the relatively moister southerly flow will keep
RH`s in tho the low 40s perhaps into the 30s.

 Latest Hires guidance continues to track the low tonight through
Wisconsin and into the Upper Peninsula. This will bring an open
wave of convection through the area arriving after midnight.
 There remains relatively around 500 J/KG of CAPE associated with
this system with the strongest shear along and south of the I 96
corridor. The best shear for the system is south of the area.
 The fact that the system is arriving late in evening, with little
limited instability, along with the chance that it will be
weakening as the wave moves further away from the low will limit
any severe potential. That gives good credence to SPC`s marginal
risk for the area.
 CAMS show some timing and strength variance but overall the
system should move through between 06Z to 12Z Saturday and exiting
quickly. Best QPF for this system will be through the far
southwest, especially in, around and west of Kalamazoo.

- A Windy Saturday with chance of showers Sat Night into Sunday

 Early Saturday morning was discussed above with the day
beginning with storm passage. Any storms should move through by
sunrise with warm, moist southerly flow continuing as a deepening
trough moves eastward.

 The main forecast question for Saturday will be the strength of
the winds. Several model soundings show the potential of upwards
of 60 to 65 mph winds aloft that given the warm temperatures,
could mix down. The southerly flow has very little directional
shear with a strong low level jet as high as 75kts at 5KFT.

Given that gradient there is certainly the potential for high
wind warning winds. However, looking at DESI, the hires guidance
shows less than a 50 percent probability of reaching those winds
and giving potential timing of mixing could only be able to tap
the highest gusts for a short period of time. So we are defiantly
looking at an advisory for 40 to 50 mph winds across the region,
with short periods of higher gusts. Right now the best areas will
in the Fremont region and towards the lakeshore and in a swath
extending from Lansing southwest towards Vicksburg.

 On the leading end of the above mentioned trough will be warm
moist flow from the Gulf though latest guidance continues to move
the best QPF to the east. Those showers will from the south to the
north Saturday night into Sunday. with the highest rainfall
east of the I 69 corridor and through southeastern Michigan.

Sunday will see cooler, near normal temperatures in the low 40s as
the low exits to the east with weaker westerly flow.

- Next week begins with warmth, then chance of storms, then cooler

That cooling off will be short lived as zonal flow brings warmer
air back into the area through the first half of the upcoming
week. That warmth should then give way to another upper level wave
late Wednesday into Thursday. There is some model variance but mid
to long range guidance are in relative agreement in the mid to
low level placement. Showers and storms will be possible through
that timeframe with the work week ending with cold northerly flow

PM Update

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1105 AM EDT Fri Mar 14 2025

No updates needed to the main weather this morning. Our main
updates were to Fire Weather products and Marine headlines, with
more details in those respective sections below.

We expect dry conditions to persist through the day, and highs to
top out in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Winds will be on the
increase from the SSE, but will not come anywhere close to
advisory criteria today.

Regarding convective potential for tonight, nothing has really
changed with regards to the data and expectations for tonight. The
SPC has nudged the Slight Risk over the far SW corner of the
forecast area.

The expectation right now is that we will see a weakening line of
storms come in from the SW after 06z/ 2am EDT tonight/early
Saturday. It seems that this will not be a widespread bonafide
severe weather event, but more of a hybrid synoptic/storm mix.

Instability is somewhat respectable with a few hundred J/kg of MU
CAPE available just out ahead of the weakening line. It continues
to look like the instability will be somewhat elevated, and not
sfc based. Our concerns for some stronger winds out of the
showers/storms will be some drier lower levels that would be
conducive to dry microbursts at the leading edge of the pcpn,
along with 40-50 knot winds at 1-2k ft agl that could be tapped.

Local Forecasts