Yesterday’s high temp was 83° with an overnight low of 61°. Dew points rose into the mid to upper 60s yesterday afternoon. Our overnight low thus far for today is 66° with a 65° dewpoint at 3 am. Our last measurable rain was last Thursday.
We can expect another hot and humid day with isolated rain and/or thundershowers. I am not seeing anything severe like we had last week. We can expect temps to be in the mid to upper 80s with higher humidity levels through the rest of the week. Our best chance of widespread showers and storms will be late Saturday.
The new CPC outlook for the last week of August is guessing below normal temps and drier than normal precipitation.
Weather History for SW Michigan
August 15
1951: Tornadoes hit near Grand Ledge in Eaton County, Fowlerville in Livingston County and Kings Mill in Lapeer County. Several barns were destroyed.
1978: A waterspout moved inland off Lake Michigan just south of Little Sable Point, about 8 miles west of Shelby in Oceana County. Several cottages were damaged and Scenic Drive was blocked by falling trees. One person was injured when a picture window was blown in.
August 16
1938: A tornado struck between Oil City and Mount Pleasant in Isabella County. No one was injured but a home was torn apart with the roof carried about 100 yards.
1979: High pressure from Canada brings record cold temperatures with Muskegon falling to 36 degrees, the coldest ever recorded there in August. At Grand Rapids, it falls to 40 degrees and at Lansing 39.
August 17
1988: It is the last hot day of the hot and dry summer of 1988. Record highs were set at Grand Rapids with 98 degrees, Lansing with 95, and Muskegon with 93. Thirteen of the first seventeen days of August had highs over 90 degrees at Grand Rapids, but none after today. The transition to cooler weather is marked by severe thunderstorms that bring large hail and damaging winds during the late afternoon and evening.
August 18
1943: Autumn is in the air with record cool temperatures of 41 degrees at Grand Rapids and 43 degrees at Muskegon.
1955: West Michigan is in the midst of another heat wave with Grand Rapids setting a record high of 97 degrees, helping this become the second hottest August on record there.
August 19
1939: A total of 4.22 inches of rain falls for the wettest August day on record at Grand Rapids.
1977: Cool air from Canada brings record lows of 37 degrees at Lansing and 43 degrees at Grand Rapids.
1996: Severe thunderstorms produce damaging winds from Cadillac to Ionia. Montcalm County is one of the hardest-hit places. Numerous trees are blown down from Greenville to Sheridan. In the town of Sheridan, there were several reports of building damage mostly to roofs. A school in Greenville had a large plate glass window blown out.
August 20
1992: Temperatures fall into the 30s in some rural areas during the coldest August on record at Grand Rapids. Record lows for the day include 42 degrees at Muskegon and 43 degrees at Grand Rapids.
2007: Heavy rain falls across southern Lower Michigan for the second consecutive day. Grand Rapids and Lansing both set daily rainfall records and some places see over 4 inches of rain for the two day total on the 19th and 20th.
2016: Tornadoes strike from Bangor to Grand Rapids and east of Belding. There were no injuries, despite damage to several buildings and hundreds of trees being downed.
August 21
1958: Heavy rains fall for the second day in a row, causing some flooding in the Grand Rapids area where the two-day rain total from August 20-21 was over 4 inches.
1975: A tornado blew down fruit trees in an orchard at Climax, in Kalamazoo County.
2003: A tornado with top winds around 120 mph strikes eastern Ingham County injuring two people and destroying two homes. The damage path was 4 and a half miles long and up to one half mile wide.
Weather History for SE Michigan
August 15
On August 15, 1951, an F1 tornado developed from a severe thunderstorm at 3 pm and hit Lapeer county
August 16
On August 16, 1968, 4.45 inches of rainfall fell in Flint. This is the record for greatest precipitation recorded in Flint in the month of August and is actually greater than the normal amount of precipitation for the entire month (3.43 inches)!
August 17
On August 17, 1988, the high temperature reached 100 degrees in Detroit, 96 in Flint and 91 in Saginaw. This was the last 90-degree day of the very hot summer of 1988. A significant cold front moved through Michigan on the 17th. High temperatures ranged from 65 to 80 degrees for the rest of the month of August 1988.
Also on August 17, 1926, 4.51 inches of rainfall fell in Detroit. This is the third greatest daily rainfall amount ever recorded in Detroit. The greatest was on July 31, 1925 when 4.74 inches was recorded.
August 18
On August 18, 1914, 3.73 inches of rain fell in Saginaw. This is the second-highest daily total to be recorded in Saginaw in the month of August! The highest is 6.93 inches, which fell on August 10, 2012.
August 19
On August 19, 2010, a supercell developed over far northern Saginaw late in the afternoon, then tracked southeast along a frontal boundary. This storm produced a swath of wind damage with winds up to 80 mph, large hail up to golf ball size, and eventually two tornadoes as it moved through Macomb County.
The first tornado touched down near the intersection of 22 Mile and Hayes Road, tracking south-southeast before lifting just east of Hayes Road on M-59. Maximum winds were estimated to be up to 90 mph with this EF1 tornado. Damage included multiple homes with roof damage, along with downed trees and power lines.
The second tornado touched down just east of Romeo Plank and north of Canal Road. The tornado tracked southeast before lifting just west of the intersection of 14 Mile Road and Harper Avenue. Maximum winds were estimated up to 85 mph with this EF0 tornado. A few homes sustained window, garage, and shingle damage. Numerous trees were blown down.
Also on August 19, 1998, Flint experienced a record cold temperature of 41 degrees for that day.
August 20
On August 20, 2011, severe thunderstorms were concentrated mostly along the M-59 corridor, causing the Dream Cruise along Woodward Avenue to be cut short, as minor damage was reported. The other notable item from this event was a weak tornado reported near Chesaning in Saginaw County.
Also on August 20, 1996, 0.29 inches of rain fell in Detroit. This would account for over half of the 0.43 inches that would ultimately fall that month. August 1996 ended up being the driest August of the 20th century for Detroit.
August 21
On August 21, 2003, temperatures soared into the 90s as a cold front passed through southeast Michigan during the evening hours. Thunderstorms developed just after 6 PM EDT over Saginaw Bay and continued to develop to the southwest. This was a major severe event with hail up to the size of golf balls in Huron and Genesee Counties and wind damage from Monroe and Washtenaw Counties to Lapeer and Sanilac Counties. There was also one tornado that moved into far western Livingston County from Webberville in Ingham county.
Also on August 21, 1975, an F0 tornado developed from a severe thunderstorm passing through Wayne County caused $3,000 in damages.
Forecast Discussion
- Patchy dense fog again this morning Dewpoints are elevated compared to the forecast low temperatures this morning. Already locally dense fog was forming with FPK and MOP down to a half mile. Surface humidity continues increase though and the fog is still expected to increase. High level clouds were thickening up so it may be until closer to daybreak when the fog expands. - Unseasonably warm conditions to continue into Saturday Tuesday was a warm day and we will start off today several degrees warmer. High level clouds will be around so the sun will be somewhat veiled. As a result many locations will still top out in the 80 to 85 degree range. The latest HRRR shows a lake breeze moving inland during the afternoon. Looking into Thursday...Friday and Saturday...850 mb temps climb...mainly Saturday. This is when the thermal ridge will be overhead. Thus Saturday will likely be the warmest day of the stretch. Heat index values will likely end up in the upper 80s to low 90s each day through Friday and perhaps a little higher for Saturday. A low level thermal trough is seen across the CWA on Sunday...so a brief lowering of the surface temperatures is expected...likely closer to normal for this time of the year. - Risk for a few thunderstorms mainly each afternoon into Saturday Instability builds each afternoon...but mid to upper level forcing will be weak. Bulk deep layer shear remains weak through the period. Thus any shower or thunderstorm activity should remain isolated and brief. A cold front tries to move in later Saturday into Saturday night...but the mid level wave associated with this feature will be losing amplitude as it track northeastward through the Western Great Lakes region then. Mid level heights actually rise over MI on Sunday.
It was nice to have a few days with lower humidity, but now the dew point is right back into the 70’s again. Feels terrible.
It is now up to 84 here with a dew point at 73 so it is now back to warm and humid.
Slim
The Dream Cruise is Saturday. My son and I may go and check out the cool rides 😎 🚗. It is supposed to be upper 80s and sunny.