Warmer & Sunny Today 3/18

Yesterday was mostly sunny, with a high of 52° and a low of 23.5°. Today, the temperature will rise into the low to mid-60s, with some high clouds drifting overhead. Another weather system will move in Wednesday, bringing a chance for showers in the afternoon and possible showers and storms Wednesday night. Snow showers will be possible behind the front Thursday morning, with minor accumulations expected. The most snow is forecast be near Ludington.

SPC Forecast for Wednesday

Weather History

1925: The Tri-State Tornado kills 695 people and injures over 2,000 along its 219 mile-long damage path through Missouri, Illinois and Indiana. It is by far the worst tornado in United States history. The weather in Lower Michigan is relatively tranquil with highs in the 50s and rain changing to snow during the night.

On March 18, 1959, the overnight temperature dropped to 3 degrees in Flint, setting the record for the lowest overnight temperature for this day in Flint.

Forecast Discussion

- Dry today, showers Wednesday/Wed night changing to snow

Today will be tranquil with quite a bit of sunshine...at least
early....before clouds stream into the region late in the day.
South wind flow will continue to advect warmer air into the cwa
and we should see temperatures climb into the 60s south of M-46
and 50s over the northern half of the cwa where east winds off of
Lake Huron will keep temperatures down a bit.

Deepening low pressure over the Plains will track northeast toward
Sheboygan by late Wednesday. The cwa will be on the warm side of
this low and we`ll see temperatures climb into the mid 60s despite
mostly cloudy skies. There`s a chance we could see a thunderstorm
sneak into the western cwa Wednesday afternoon/evening, but a lot
depends on upstream evolution. There will be some clearing just
ahead of the low over IL Wednesday afternoon just ahead of the
trailing short wave and cold front that will help to spur storm
development. However, by the time storms would try to move into
southwest Lower, instability will be waning from an already not
too impressive level. MUCAPE doesn`t climb more than a couple of
hundred joules/kg before the cold front moves through Wednesday
evening. That said...there are some stronger winds aloft via a
55kt LLJ. Thus any convection that develops may try to tap into
those stronger winds, especially southwest of Grand Rapids.

The low will move across the state Wednesday evening and colder
air will pour back into the region. Showers will mix with and then
change to light snow late Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Any
accumulations will be light...an inch or less...mainly over the
northern 2 rows of counties.

- Rain/snow Sunday night/Monday

A short wave will move across the southern cwa Friday night
potentially triggering some light rain before exiting Saturday
morning.

Another deepening low will move across the northern tier of states
Sunday night / Monday bringing light rain/snow to the cwa along
the cold frontal boundary.