2024 will soon come to an end. We now turn our attention to January and a new year. With the new month and new year, it is time to take a look at some January averages and some past records.
In looking at January’s averages one can see that it has been getting warmer. The current 30 year average temperature at Grand Rapids is 24.8° the average total precipitation is 2.52” and the average snowfall is 22.6”. The shorter 15 year average has the mean average temperature of 25.6° precipitation 2.74” and snowfall 20.9” The average temperature over the last 10 years is 26.1° the average precipitation is 2.62” and the snowfall is 19.4” in looking back at the 1981/2010 average the mean temperature was 24.4° the precipitation was 2.62” and snowfall was 19.4” So yes January is getting warmer here in Grand Rapids.
The 5 warmest January’s are 1. (34.2 in 1932) 2. (34.0 in 1933) 3. (33.2 in 2006) 4. (32.0 in 1990) 5. (31.7 in 2023) The coldest top 5 are 1. (11.8 in 1912) 2. (12.5 in 1918) 3. (12.7 in 1977) 4. (14.5 in 1994) 5. (15.8 in 1963) The warmest day was 66 on January 25, 1950 it has gotten to 60 or better in 9 years. The record low of -22 was set on January 30, 1951, and January 9, 1994. It has not gotten to -20 or colder since that day in 1994. The wettest January was in 2005 with 4.67” of precipitation the driest was in 1956 with just 0.29” of precipitation. As for snowfall the top 5 snowiest January’s are 1. (46.8” in 1999) 2. (45.5” in 1997) 3 (45.5” in 1979) 4. (45.0” in 1918) 5. (44.2” in 2004) The least snowfall 1. (0.8” in 1933) 2. (1.2” in 1921) 3. (1.4” in 1932) 4. (3.2” in 1932) 5. (3.7” in 1944)
The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 47/39 there was 0.19” of rainfall there was no snowfall. There is no snow on the ground. The day had no sunshine. For today the average H/L is 3/22 the record high of 65 was in 1984 the coldest high of 9 was in 1924. The record low was -10 in 2017, the warmest low of 44 was in 1984. The wettest was 0.90” in 2015 the most snowfall of 5.4” was in 1999 the most snow on the ground was 22” in 1951.
We only have 4 more days to go for December, 2024 the mean so far is 30.3 that is a departure of -0.6 there has been a total precipitation of 1.85” that is a departure of -0.31” the total snowfall is 19.7 that is a departure of +2.0” It looks like December 2024 will end up very close to average in temperature and snowfall.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI
245 AM EST SAT DEC 28 2024
KEY MESSAGES
– RAIN ENDING BY DAYBREAK
– RAIN, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW, SUNDAY AND TUESDAY
– COLDER WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES MID-LATE NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 AM EST SAT DEC 28 2024
– RAIN SHOWERS ENDING BY DAYBREAK
LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING
THROUGH THE STATE WILL DIMINISH AFTER DAYBREAK AS THE FRONT AND
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE PULL AWAY. A MAINLY OVERCAST AND BREEZY DAY IS LEFT
IN ITS WAKE WITH GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH LIKELY. THIS SAME STRONG
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL ALSO SUPPORT TEMPS TO CLIMB WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE REGION.
– RAIN, POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW, SUNDAY AND TUESDAY
A MID-LEVEL WAVE ACROSS THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE REGION AS SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL BE OUR NEXT SYSTEM. THIS WAVE EJECTS INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY DRIVING A DEEPENING LOW THROUGH THE REGION, WITH THE
LOW TAKING THE COMMON DETROIT/TOLEDO TRACK THAT DEFINES SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION FOR THE AREA. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THERMAL PROFILES
GENERALLY APPEAR TO WARM FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF SNOW SO MOST IF NOT
ALL OF ANY PRECIPITATION FALLS AS RAIN. WITH COLDER AIR WRAPPING IN
AROUND THE BACK OF THE SYSTEM THERE IS A LOW (10-30 PERCENT) CHANCE
THAT OUR SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA MIXES WITH OR BRIEFLY CHANGES OVER
TO SNOW AS THE SYSTEM PULLS AWAY SUNDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE LOW
PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE, WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST AS RAIN PRESENTLY
BUT WE’LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. WHAT THIS SYSTEM WILL DO IS PRODUCE A
WIDESPREAD SOAKING RAIN FOR THE REGION THANKS TO OUR FAVORABLE
PLACEMENT UNDER THE MID-LEVEL FGEN AXIS. BY THE TIME ALL IS SAID AND
DONE OUR SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA LOOKS TO SEE 1.0-1.5 INCHES OF
RAINFALL WITH MOST OF WEST MICHIGAN SEEING AT LEAST 0.25 INCHES.
OUR NEXT SYSTEM IN THE FORM OF A COLORADO LOW ARRIVES TUESDAY,
THOUGH COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY, IMPACTS LOOK LESS
SIGNIFICANT. THE TREND TOWARDS THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE BEING A BIT
TO SLOW TO PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE CONTINUES. THIS KEEPS
THE LOW FURTHER SOUTH THANKS TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGHING
PATTERN. THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THAT WE DO STILL REMAIN WITHIN
THE LIGHT STRATIFORM REGION OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD BRINGING A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW TO THE REGION. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR IF
THIS TREND TOWARDS A LESS SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION EVENT CONTINUES.
– COLDER WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW CHANCES MID-LATE NEXT WEEK
THE ARRIVAL OF SUBSTANTIAL NORTHERN STREAM TROUGHING WEDNESDAY INTO
LATE WEEK MARKS THE ARRIVAL OF A CHANGE TO A MUCH COLDER PATTERN
ACROSS THE REGION. 850MB TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE NEGATIVE
TEENS WILL TRANSLATE INTO HIGHS FALLING INTO THE 20S FOR THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION IN CYCLONIC FLOW GIVES
US A FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC SETUP FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR THE LATTER
HALF OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH UNCERTAINTY AS TO DGZ MOISTURE QUALITY
MEANS HOW MUCH SNOW WILL OCCUR IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS RANGE. LOOKING
INTO WEEK TWO SYNOPTIC PATTERNS, ENSEMBLE MEANS SUGGEST THAT
TROUGHING WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. THIS
WILL KEEP SNOW CHANCES AND BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AROUND BEYOND
THE 7 DAY.
Detailed Forecast For Grand Rapids
Overnight
A 50 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a steady temperature around 49. Southwest wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Saturday
A 30 percent chance of showers, mainly before 10am. Cloudy, with a steady temperature around 48. Southwest wind 11 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Saturday Night
A 20 percent chance of rain after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. Southwest wind 5 to 7 mph becoming calm in the evening.
Sunday
Rain. High near 44. East northeast wind 7 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.
Sunday Night
Rain likely, mainly before 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 35. West northwest wind around 11 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Monday
Partly sunny, with a high near 42.
Monday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 31.
Tuesday
A chance of rain showers before 1pm, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 40.
Tuesday Night
A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 31.
New Year’s Day
A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 34.
Wednesday Night
A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 25.
Thursday
A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 28.
Thursday Night
Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22.
Friday
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 25.
POLOR VORTEX!!
IS COMING STAY TUNED INDY!!
Music to my ears! Bring it!
Enjoy this “holiday gift” of easy weather. Months of cold and snow is our Southern Arctic reality.
Sounds great!!!
What? It is getting warmer? Who knew? 50 degrees and rain in January is horrendous! Bring on the snow!!!!!!!
I think we all suspected this but thanks for the data to confirm it, Slim.
We actually have some sunshine this morning. Took the doggo for a walk. It certainly doesn’t look or feel like December 28th.
Have a great day, friends!