Warm with Rain

Yesterday, we reached a high of 44° and a low of 34°, with cloudy skies and patchy drizzle.  Our mild weather will continue today with highs near 50° and increasing rain chances as a storm system tracks through the region later tonight into Saturday. The showers will continue and it will turn breezy.

Weather History

1959: Southerly winds bring mild weather with lows in the 40s and highs in the upper 50s.

1993: Temperatures plunge below zero, beginning a long stretch of arctic weather that will continue through much of January.

On December 27, 1904, there was a maximum temperature of 56 degrees in Detroit between 3 and 4 pm that fell steadily to a minimum of 18 by midnight.

Forecast Discussion

- Several Rounds of Precipitation Through Tuesday

Light showers associated with a mid-level theta-e surge are ongoing
this morning. Showers become more scattered this morning as
subsidence takes hold before a second wave of widespread rain
begins this afternoon as troughing drives an occluding low through
the upper Great Lakes. Rain continues into early Saturday. We see
850mb temps climb to near +5C as our brief warmup begins,
translating to highs well into the 40s today and into the 50s for
Saturday. This will continue to torch the current snowpack and
ensure all precipitation is rain. Positive LIs at the surface and
aloft suggest that thunder is not likely with this system. Up to
0.5 inches of rain is forecast.

Our next round of precipitation is expected Sunday as a shortwave
slides a low off to the southeast, with the low tracking near Toledo
to Cleveland by Sunday afternoon. Given this low track the best
chance of precipitation will be across our southeastern forecast
area including Lansing/Jackson/Battle Creek. Where the heaviest axis
of rain sets up depends on the low track. The GFS still persists in
a more north-westerly surface low track which would put the heaviest
rain across the heart of the CWA rather than the southeastern
portion. Ensembles suggest that the GFS solution remains somewhat of
an outlier so outgoing forecast favors the Toledo low setup. Plenty
of rain is expected with this system with a widespread half inch or
more likely. Peak rainfall amounts with the GFS and ECMWF both
exceed an inch with 24 hour probabilities of exceedance around 20
percent towards JXN. With 850mb temps near 0C, we`ll have to watch
for the chance that a bit of snow can mix in, however the favored
scenario is that warm low-level wet-bulb temps support precipitation
staying rain.

Our third precipitation system arrives Tuesday into Wednesday as a
southern stream trough ejects out of the plains driving a low across
the Ohio Valley. This system looks to take a track into Toledo like
the last one. With temperatures more marginal, rain changing over to
snow is the current forecast. One thing to watch however is that if
the northern stream wave can phase a bit faster, which given the
strong nature of the northern stream wave is possible, that
changeover happens sooner laying a stripe of snow across the CWA
Tuesday night. The GDPS and ECMWF favor this potential with current
exceedance probabilities for 1 inch of snowfall in the 20-30
percent range. This will need to be monitored.

- Colder With Lake Effect Snow Chances Wed/Thu

A much colder airmass arrives behind the departing low as northern-
stream troughing sets in. 850mb temps falling into the -12 to -15C
range in a cyclonic flow pattern is synoptically supportive of lake
effect snow next Wednesday into Thursday. As a result, accumulating
snow looks likely for the lakeshore to start the new year, though
specifics are not certain at this range. In stark contrast to the 50s
of Saturday, highs also fall into the 20s by late next week.