Yesterday we had a high of 60° and the low was 32°. I will have a rainfall total after I venture out to look at the rain gauge. We currently have rain falling and the temperature is 60° at 6:30 am.
Episodes of rain are likely through Tuesday Night as a wave of low pressure tracks through. Total amounts in parts of western and central Michigan could exceed 2 inches. A few thunderstorms are possible as well. Gusty winds over 35 mph are expected Tuesday.
WPC Rainfall Days 1-7 Forecast
Weather History
2003: Heavy rains of an inch or more across southwest Lower Michigan on this day set the tone for November, 2003. This turns out to be the wettest November on record at both Grand Rapids and Lansing.
On November 4, 2015, Flint set a new record for the highest November temperature on record when it reached 80 degrees. Detroit reached 77 degrees, its second-highest November temperature while Saginaw reached 75 degrees, its 3rd warmest.
NWS Forecast
Today
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 11 am, then showers likely. High near 67. South wind 11 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. The chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Tonight
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 60. South wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. The chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.
Tuesday
Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 70. South southwest wind 16 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. The chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and a quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tuesday Night
Showers, mainly before 1 am. Low around 46. South southwest wind 10 to 14 mph becoming west after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 26 mph. The chance of precipitation is 90%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.
Wednesday
A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 56. West northwest wind 6 to 8 mph.
Wednesday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low of around 36.
Thursday
Sunny, with a high near 58.
Thursday Night
Mostly clear, with a low around 38.
Friday
Sunny, with a high near 59.
Friday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low of around 36.
Saturday
A chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 59.
Saturday Night
Showers likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low of around 45.
Sunday
A chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 60.
Forecast Discussion
- Occasional rain and a few storms through Tuesday Deep south to sw flow will continue to advect abundant moisture into our area through Tuesday as precipitable water values reach around an inch and a half which is anomalously high for this time of year. Several upper level shortwaves will move through and an increasingly strong llj reaching around 60 kts will both be focusing mechanisms for steadier rainfall and perhaps a few storms. However convective potential will be mitigated by weak instability. Nevertheless forcing from the llj with ample low level moisture in place along with favorable kinematics should result in a few embedded storms from time to time. An overall short range guidance consensus along with the 00Z HREF continue to show potential for relatively highest qpf amounts near to northwest of Grand Rapids where around 1.5 to 3 inches of rainfall is expected from today through Tuesday evening. A bit of a further southeastward trend is noted in some of the guidance such as the 00Z HRRR. Therefore it is possible that the Grand Rapids area could get in on relatively higher end amounts in the 2.5 to 3 inch range. However given that this will be a longer duration event with rather dry antecedent conditions we are not expecting any significant flooding issues. However there could be some localized minor clogged drain/ponding of water type issues where heaviest rainfall occurs. Conditions also look to become rather windy Tuesday. At this time we believe peak wind gusts will most likely fall just under wind advisory criteria. It is tough to achieve advisory criteria gusts with somewhat limited mixing/rather extensive cloud cover and in a warm rather than cold air advection regime. Nevertheless it will be a windy day and some gusts may flirt with advisory criteria particularly near the Lake MI shoreline. Will continue to monitor model guidance trends in this regard as well. - Potential for showers over the weekend Models are showing another mid level low lifting out of the Southwest U.S. and tracking it through the Great Lakes region during this period. Similar to the current system, it is forecast to draw up abundant moisture from the Gulf of Mexico with a low level jet lifting in. Early PWAT estimates show values climbing to above an inch, which is well above normal for this time of the year. There`s even weak elevated instability forecasted. Ensemble qpf values have been trending up. As a result we will increase the POPs for next weekend based on the pattern and trends.
Warm November rain. Sure is different than it used to be. GNR will have to make a new song for the current times.
The overnight low here in MBY was 53 it is now up to 60 with rain falling. I have had 0.31” of rainfall so far today.
Slim
The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 59/37 there was a trace of rainfall. The highest wind gust was 29MPH out of the SE. The sun was out just 4% of the time. For today the average H/L is 52/36 the record high of 75 was set in 2015 the coldest high of 25 was set in 1991. The record low of 15 was set in 1951 the warmest low of 57 was set in 2022. The wettest was 1.50” in 1959 the most snowfall of 5.8” fell in 1991 the most on the ground was 7” in 1991… Read more »